How Pakistan misread the Taliban and lost peace on the frontier

Islamabad, Pakistan – When Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif arrived astatine the subject infirmary successful Bannu successful the northwestern state of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan, connected September 13, his stoic look gave mode to unmistakable anger.

At slightest 19 soldiers had died warring attackers from the equipped group, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) – commonly known arsenic the Pakistan Taliban – successful Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, a state that shares a agelong and contentious borderline with Afghanistan.

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Flanked by service main Field Marshal Asim Munir to his left, Sharif delivered a blunt connection to the Afghan Taliban, which returned to powerfulness successful Kabul aft the withdrawal of US forces successful August 2021, and which helium accuses of providing a haven to equipped fighters connected Afghan soil.

“Today I privation to nonstop a wide connection to Afghanistan,” helium said portion speaking to the media extracurricular the hospital. “Choose 1 of 2 paths. If they privation to found relations with Pakistan with genuine goodwill, sincerity and honesty, we are acceptable for that. But if they take to broadside with terrorists and enactment them, past we volition person thing to bash with the Afghan interim government.”

But the unit did not stop. Five much soldiers were killed erstwhile an improvised explosive instrumentality struck their conveyance connected September 16 successful the southwestern state of Balochistan, which besides borders Afghanistan. Then, connected September 30, a suicide bomb ripped done Quetta, the provincial superior of Balochistan, sidesplitting astatine slightest 10 radical and wounding 32.

The decease number successful August was peculiarly high, according to Islamabad-based deliberation tank, the Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS). The institute reported a 74 percent summation successful unit successful the state since July.

“With 143 militant attacks recorded, August became the deadliest period successful implicit a decade, surpassing each monthly figures since February 2014, arsenic per the PICSS Militancy Database,” the deliberation tank’s study said.

The surge has compounded an already bleak picture. The twelvemonth 2024 was 1 of the deadliest for Pakistan successful astir a decade, with much than 2,500 casualties of unit successful the state recorded. Those targeted by equipped groups see civilians and information personnel, and the bulk of attacks person taken spot successful Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan.

Sharif was categorical successful assigning blasted for the rising unit and killings. “Terrorists travel from Afghanistan and, unneurotic with the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), these khawarij articulation forces to martyr our soldiers, our brothers and sisters, and mean citizens,” helium said astatine the hospital.

Emerging successful 2007 amid the United States-led, alleged “war connected terror”, the TTP has agelong waged an equipped run against Islamabad.

The radical wants to instrumentality strict Islamic law, has demanded the merchandise of its imprisoned members, and calls for a reversal of the merger of Pakistan’s tribal areas with the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province.

The Pakistani authorities insists the TTP – which is chiseled from the Afghan Taliban but ideologically aligned successful galore respects – operates from Afghan territory. It blames Kabul for allowing sanctuary and has repeatedly described the radical utilizing the Arabic-derived word “khwarij”, a humanities epithet for an extremist sect that branded different Muslims arsenic “apostates”.

Kabul, however, has repeatedly rejected these allegations. Last month, Zabihullah Mujahid, a spokesperson for the Taliban government, warned against “provocative” statements and urged cooperation.

“Pakistan should instrumentality steps to foil specified attacks”, helium said during an interrogation successful Kabul days aft Sharif’s statements. “Islamabad should besides stock accusation with Kabul truthful that we tin marque efforts to antagonistic these threats arsenic well,” helium added.

Border tensions deepen

The caller spike successful unit followed a lull earlier successful the year, portion high-level delegations from Pakistan visited Kabul and different meetings with Chinese leaders took place, indicating that advancement mightiness beryllium connected the cards.

In April, Pakistan’s overseas curate and lawman premier minister, Ishaq Dar, travelled to Kabul, the archetypal large sojourn by a elder Pakistani authoritative since February 2023.

Then, successful May, Dar joined his Chinese and Afghan counterparts, Wang Yi and Amir Khan Mutaqqi, for an informal trilateral meeting successful Beijing that aimed to renew diplomatic engagement. The 3 ministers met again successful August successful Kabul, with China offering to grow its footprint successful the portion and to mediate betwixt Islamabad and Kabul.

Yet those diplomatic gestures person produced small factual enactment from the Afghan Taliban against the TTP.

Iftikhar Firdous, cofounder of The Khorasan Diary, a portal that tracks determination information developments, was scathing successful his comments. “In reality, determination has been nary overarching committedness by the Afghan Taliban to enactment against the TTP successful Afghanistan, and this is apt to ne'er happen,” helium told Al Jazeera.

He described the Afghan Taliban arsenic a “grey entity successful a satellite that nary longer differentiates betwixt achromatic and white”.

“I don’t spot immoderate extremity to the TTP portion the thought of the Taliban exists. Pakistan’s failed calculus to person a controlled Taliban authorities successful Afghanistan has had detrimental consequences, and the adjacent biggest mistake would beryllium to expect that its interior information challenges volition vanish by negotiating with the Taliban,” the Peshawar-based expert said.

Pakistani soldiers unafraid the country pursuing an onslaught by equipped groups connected the Frontier Constabulary (FC) office successful Bannu, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, successful Pakistan, connected September 2, 2025 [Ehsan Khattak/Reuters]

Diplomatic outreach falters

Pakistan was viewed arsenic a patron of the Afghan Taliban during its archetypal regularisation successful the 1990s. The Pakistani service pursued a strategy that sought “strategic depth” successful Afghanistan arsenic a hedge against India. But the Taliban’s instrumentality to powerfulness successful 2021 altered the dynamic.

This clip around, Kabul has cautiously courted ties with New Delhi astatine times, portion the TTP’s run wrong Pakistan has continued.

Kabul-based expert Tameem Bahiss argues that Pakistan’s semipermanent information rests connected constructive engagement with Afghanistan done some bilateral and multilateral channels, contempt the evident obstacles.

“Kabul’s reluctance to enactment decisively against the TTP is rooted successful some taste and ideological considerations. The Afghan Taliban are improbable to employment heavy-handed measures against a radical with whom they person not conscionable taste but ideological and humanities ties,” helium told Al Jazeera.

A complicating origin is TTP’s entree to much blase subject kit. The radical has made usage of night-vision devices, quadcopters and heavier weaponry reportedly near down aft planetary forces withdrew from Afghanistan.

‘Deep scars’

More troubling, analysts say, is that the TTP has continued to enlistee wrong Pakistan’s tribal districts, wherever decades of struggle person eroded enactment for the state.

Fahad Nabeel, who leads the Islamabad-based probe consultancy Geopolitical Insights, said counterinsurgency is lone palmy successful immoderate portion with section support.

Previous operations by the Pakistani subject against equipped groups betwixt the mid-2000s and the mid-2010s triggered the displacement of radical and economical damage, creating an situation of mistrust towards the authorities.

A deficiency of coordination betwixt national and provincial authorities and the service has besides been a peculiar issue, Nabeel said.

“Political ownership of subject operations is precise important, which has been an contented encountered during the aboriginal subject operations arsenic well. A lawsuit successful constituent is the precocious announced Operation Azm-e-Istehkam, which soon became arguable owed to the deficiency of clarity regarding the operation,” helium said, referring to an cognition announced successful June 2024 by Sharif, which was ne'er formally launched.

The tribal loop on the borderline has endured 2 decades of trauma, said Bahiss – from US drone strikes successful the mid-2000s to aboriginal 2010s to unit by equipped groups and repeated Pakistani subject operations – leaving “deep scars and fostering resentment toward some the Pakistani state, and peculiarly the information establishment”.

“These grievances person provided fertile crushed for the TTP’s revival, arsenic the radical has progressively framed its communicative astir Pashtun disenfranchisement,” the expert said.

Local grievances, nationalist threat

While Pakistan and Afghanistan person been engaged successful a simmering struggle for galore years, caller actions by different countries, including the US, person made the determination dynamic adjacent much complicated.

On September 18, during a sojourn to the United Kingdom, US President Donald Trump suggested Washington wishes to regain power of Bagram airbase, a strategical installation extracurricular Kabul that was agelong a linchpin for overseas subject operations successful Afghanistan.

Six days later, astatine a United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) broadside lawsuit successful New York, the overseas ministers of China, Iran, Pakistan and Russia urged Afghanistan to instrumentality “effective, concrete, and verifiable actions” to dismantle equipped groups operating from its soil.

They warned that ISIL, al-Qaeda, the TTP and respective others posed a “serious threat” to the region.

Crucially, the resulting four-country connection – portion of a quadripartite process that began successful 2017 – besides opposed “the reestablishment of subject bases” specified arsenic Bagram successful and astir Afghanistan by “the countries liable for the existent situation”, connection understood arsenic aimed astatine the US. The Afghan Taliban, for its part, welcomed this statement.

Abdul Sayed, a information researcher successful Sweden, said the Afghan Taliban’s superior precedence is consolidating governance successful its ain country.

“But a further enlargement of Pakistan’s argumentation of cross-border strikes or the adoption of much punitive measures against the Taliban and the Afghan colonisation are apt to make accrued enactment for hostile actors, which could hazard intensifying the menace of militancy wrong Pakistan,” helium told Al Jazeera.

Pakistan has conducted aggregate aerial strikes against equipped groups connected Afghan ungraded successful caller years, with the past specified incidental taking spot successful December 2024, successful which astatine slightest 46 radical were killed, mostly civilians.

Islamabad has besides pursued a argumentation of expulsions. Since November 2023, Pakistan has been pushing a three-phase run to deport millions of Afghans, citing information concerns. That thrust has further heightened tensions with Kabul and added unit to an already fragile humanitarian concern successful Afghanistan, which has been compounded by the caller devastating earthquake successful its eastbound region.

Nabeel said Islamabad volition person to effort to physique goodwill with mean Afghans portion making it wide that anti-Pakistan equipped groups cannot run freely, if they person a anticipation of eradicating the violence.

“Such an attack tin let Pakistan to behaviour covert actions against anti-Pakistan militant groups successful Afghanistan. However, specified activities tin lone beryllium to beryllium meaningful if Pakistani authorities undertake actions connected Pakistani ungraded [rather than engaging successful cross-border strikes] to discourage the structural factors of violence,” helium said.

For Firdous, the Peshawar-based information analyst, however, simmering tensions betwixt Pakistan and Afghanistan volition apt persist beyond immoderate solution to the existent situation astir TTP.

“There are perennial problems betwixt the 2 neighbours which person much to bash with existential issues for some countries, and cross-border coercion happens to beryllium an unresolved adaptable from the baggage of history,” helium said.