How Trump’s absence marks leadership opportunity for China at G20

US President Donald Trump’s determination to snub the G20 summit successful South Africa this twelvemonth has handed an accidental to China, arsenic it seeks to grow its increasing power successful the African continent and presumption itself arsenic an alternate to the dangers of a unilateralist United States.

Washington said it would not be the two-day acme acceptable to footwear disconnected connected Saturday implicit wide discredited claims that the big country, antecedently ruled by its achromatic number nether an apartheid strategy until 1994, present mistreats achromatic people.

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South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa hit backmost astatine Trump’s assertion that hosting the acme successful Johannesburg was a “total disgrace”. “Boycott authorities doesn’t work,” Ramaphosa said, adding that the US was “giving up the precise important relation that they should beryllium playing arsenic the biggest system successful the world”.

By Friday morning, Trump appeared to person backtracked connected his stance somewhat, erstwhile speculation that Washington mightiness nonstop a US authoritative to Johannesburg aft each circulated.

Regardless, the spat comes arsenic Chinese President Xi Jinping sends Premier Li Qiang to correspond him connected the satellite stage. China’s 72-year-old president has dialled backmost overseas visits, progressively delegating his apical emissary.

“The US is giving China an accidental to grow its planetary influence,” Zhiqun Zhu, prof of governmental subject and planetary relations astatine Bucknell University, told Al Jazeera. “With the lack of the US, China and EU countries volition beryllium the absorption of the acme and different countries volition look for enactment [from them].”

But observers accidental that portion Trump’s lack volition nonstop heightened attraction to Beijing’s statements and behaviour, it does not spell the extremity of the US-led bid altogether.

Jing Gu, a governmental economist astatine the United Kingdom-based Institute of Development Studies, said the US’s nonaccomplishment to be “does not automatically marque China the caller leader, but it creates disposable abstraction for China to contiguous itself arsenic a much stable, reliable spouse successful governance”.

“It reinforces the cognition that the US is stepping backmost from multilateralism and the shared absorption of planetary problems,” she said. “In that context, China tin contiguous itself arsenic a much predictable, unchangeable histrion and emphasise continuity, enactment for unfastened commercialized and engagement with the Global South.”

Expanding power successful the African continent

This year’s G20 will, for the archetypal time, person an African seat and instrumentality spot connected the African continent. The African Union (AU) volition besides enactment afloat arsenic a member.

South Africa, which holds the G20 presidency, is expected to propulsion for statement and enactment connected precedence issues for African countries, including indebtedness relief, economical growth, clime alteration and modulation to cleanable energy.

Zhu, who besides serves arsenic editor-in-chief of the world journal, China and the World, said South Africa’s themes were a “natural fit” for China, Africa’s largest trading partner.

“China aims to go a person successful greenish energy, and there’s a batch of country for China and African countries to enactment connected that,” helium said.

The African continent, with its mineral wealth, booming colonisation and fast-growing economies, offers immense imaginable for Chinese firms. Li, China’s premier, travelled to Zambia this week, marking the archetypal sojourn to the state by a Chinese premier successful 28 years. The copper-rich federation has Beijing arsenic its largest authoritative creditor for $5.7bn.

Eager to unafraid entree to Zambia’s commodities and grow its exports from resource-rich East Africa, China signed a $1.4bn woody successful September to rehabilitate the Tazara Railway, built successful the 1970s and connecting Tanzania and Zambia, to amended rail-sea proscription successful the region.

“The Chinese system and African system are complementary; they some payment from trade,” Zhu said. The G20 “is a large level for China to task its planetary power and question opportunities to enactment with different countries”, helium added.

Africa’s increasing request for vigor and China’s dominance successful manufacturing marque the 2 a bully fit, observers say. This is playing out. A study by vigor deliberation vessel Ember, for instance, recovered Africa’s imports of star panels from China roseate a whopping 60 percent successful the 12 months to June 2025.

According to Gu astatine the Institute of Development Studies, China volition beryllium looking to pat into this increasing synergy with Africa and volition present a three-fold connection astatine this year’s G20.

“First, it volition accent stableness and the value of planetary rules and regulations,” she said. Second, “it volition nexus the G20 to the Global South and item issues similar improvement and greenish transformation”.

Third, “by offering issue-based enactment connected topics specified arsenic integer economy, artificial quality and governance, it volition presumption itself arsenic a problem-solver alternatively than a disruptor”, the economist added.

China arsenic a bastion of multilateralism

An lack of American officials astatine this year’s G20 – aft skipping the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meeting successful Korea arsenic good arsenic the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP30) successful Brazil – would beryllium “another accidental for China”, Rosemary Foot, prof of authorities and planetary relations astatine the University of Oxford, told Al Jazeera.

“It tin contrast, yet again, its declared committedness to multilateralism and liable behaviour arsenic a large authorities versus the dangers of a unilateralist America focusing not connected nationalist goods but connected benefits to itself only.”

China has been looking to grow its power successful Africa arsenic a counterweight to the US-led satellite order. In stark opposition to Trump’s determination to extremity Africa’s duty-free epoch and slap 15-30 percent tariffs connected 22 nations, Xi announced astatine the APEC acme past period a zero-tariff argumentation for each African nations with diplomatic ties to Beijing.

On that occasion, Xi emphasised China’s committedness “to associated improvement and shared prosperity with each countries”, stressing the country’s extremity to “support much processing countries successful achieving modernisation and opening up caller avenues for planetary development”.

Similarly, Li, China’s premier, marked the United Nations’ 80th day astatine the General Assembly successful September by expressing the request for stronger corporate enactment connected clime alteration and emerging technologies, calling for greater solidarity to “[lift] everyone up, portion part drags each down”.

His remarks were successful stark opposition to Trump’s, who, successful his speech, described clime alteration arsenic the “greatest con occupation ever perpetrated” and called renewable sources of vigor a “joke” and “pathetic”.

Foot said the spotlight volition present beryllium connected Beijing arsenic it seeks to onslaught a akin conciliatory airs – and successful doing so, acceptable itself isolated from the US – astatine the G20. “Whether Beijing volition person a large interaction connected the G20 docket is much hard to determine,” she said.