How U.S. oil tanker seizures targeting Venezuela are linked to rising geopolitical tensions with China

The escalating U.S. run to seize tankers linked to Venezuelan oil could besides escalate tensions betwixt the U.S. authorities and China if much crude lipid intended for the Chinese marketplace is caught up successful the U.S. subject campaign.

On Saturday, the Panama-flagged tanker Centuries was seized carrying sanctioned Venezuelan oil, a determination condemned by China. The seizure was the latest successful the President Donald Trump's vow to block tankers carrying Venezuelan oil. Maritime experts accidental the determination whitethorn person relied connected a ineligible authorization that suggests much seizures volition beryllium coming, and perchance people much lipid intended for the Chinese market.

According to Dimitris Ampatzidis, elder hazard and compliance expert astatine Kpler, the seizure of the Panama-flagged Centuries may person been conducted nether the 2002 Salas-Becker agreement, which allows U.S. authorities to committee Panamanian-flagged vessels with conscionable 2 hours' notice.

"The astir absorbing portion of the Centuries seizure is the proposition of the U.S. apt relying connected its anterior boarding statement with the Panama Maritime Authority," said Ampatzidis, adding that the usage of this statement tin pb to further seizures.

Kpler investigation shows that retired of the full of 23 shadiness tankers presently identified wrong Venezuela's exclusive economical zone, 3 of those vessels are operating nether the Panama emblem and are loaded with sanctioned Venezuelan crude.

"If the Ragnar, Balsa, and Larko effort to depart, it places them successful the higher-risk enforcement class due to the fact that they are operating nether the Panama flag," Ampatzidis said. "We tin spot seizures arsenic we saw with the Centuries."

Ragnar was loaded connected Dec. 16, and Balsa and Larko were loaded connected Dec. 17.

"Beyond already-sanctioned vessels, the U.S. appears progressively consenting to people different ships linked to the shadiness fleet erstwhile they effort to depart Venezuela with cargo — peculiarly if they are stateless (no flag) oregon Panama-flagged," Ampatzidis said.

"The astir absorbing facet of each of this is that by squeezing Venezuelan oil, you are not lone putting tremendous unit connected the Maduro regime, but you are besides impacting China strategically," said Aaron Roth, retired Coast Guard skipper and principal, national strategy & security, for the Chertoff Group. "The longer it goes connected and it whitethorn make negotiating abstraction successful U.S.-China diplomacy, due to the fact that Venezuelan lipid is discounted to China, and it's the benignant of dense crude that China tin refine," helium said. "Without VZ oil, China volition person to spell to the marketplace to Russia and the Middle East, which volition beryllium much costly to them," helium added.

Venezuela has produced astir 900,000 barrels of crude lipid and condensate truthful acold successful 2025, accounting for astir 1% of the full planetary supply. Kpler information indicates China buys astir 76% of Venezuela's output. The U.S. has imported astir 17% of Venezuela's output successful 2025. That is astir fractional of the percent of output imported successful 2024. Cuba, Spain and Italy are the different important customers of Venezuela's oil.

Both the U.S. Coast Guard and U.S. Department of Transportation referred requests for remark to the White House, which did not respond by property time.

Recent past of the seized Centuries tanker

Kpler information showed Centuries had antecedently been actively progressive successful aggregate operations linked to the proscription of Venezuelan crude and substance oil, some arsenic a long-haul tanker loading astatine Jose Oil Terminal successful Venezuela, and arsenic a transshipment vas operating offshore successful Venezuela and Malaysia.

Kpler information showed the U.S. seized Centuries aft it loaded crude astatine Jose Oil Terminal. Kpler information detected spoofed AIS positions concealing the determination of the tanker conscionable earlier the vas was loaded. The erroneous signals showed the vas was sailing toward the Caribbean successful aboriginal December, reached the bluish seashore of Curaçao connected December 12, and remained ostensibly stationary successful that area.

However, imagery investigation by Kpler showed that the vas had successful information been disconnected the seashore of Venezuela since astatine slightest Dec. 4. Additional supporting imagery indicated the tanker was bare during that period. But connected December 9, outer imagery confirmed the tanker was being loaded astatine the Venezuelan larboard JOT's westbound pier.

Venezuelan larboard cognition reports reviewed by Kpler showed the vas operating nether the alias "Crag" was loaded with astir 2 cardinal barrels of Venezuelan Merey crude from the aforesaid berth astir the aforesaid clip Centuries was loading. Following the loading, Centuries remained conscionable eastbound of JOT, with imagery showing the tanker positioned disconnected the seashore of Lechería, Venezuela, connected Dec. 16.

"Two days later, outer imagery showed that the vas had departed Venezuelan waters and was observed astir 3 miles southbound of Grenada, accordant with a voyage toward Asia," according to a study by Kpler connected the Centuries seizure.

The marketplace is not capable to cognize successful beforehand if immoderate vas filled with sanctioned lipid is straight going to China, with the spoofing and transshipment betwixt tankers utilized to debar detection, and confirmation lone disposable aft the fact. Both vessels seized implicit the play bash person a anterior past of transporting crude lipid to China, according to Kpler.

Centuries was archetypal observed loading 2 cardinal barrels of sanctioned Venezuelan Merey crude successful April 2020. The lipid was discharged astatine Yantai lipid terminal successful Shandong Province, China.

The 2nd vas seized implicit the weekend, Bella 1, was bare and heading to Venezuela. The tanker earlier successful the twelvemonth transported Iranian lipid to Qingdao, Shandong Province successful mid-March. The past voyage Bella 1 made from Venezuela was successful May 2023 and that lipid besides went to Qingdao and Tianjin, China.

"What inactive is yet to play retired would beryllium a absorption from China should the Trump medication prehend a vas headed their way," said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates.

The seizure of Panama-flagged vessels similar the Centuries besides comes amid existing friction betwixt the U.S., China and Panama implicit control of the Panama Canal. Trump has threatened to instrumentality the Panama Canal back, saying the waterway is being controlled by China.

"Geopolitics, successful galore antithetic forms, progressively impacts satellite trade, economical relations and maritime proviso chains. This seems to beryllium different illustration of that," said Peter Sand, main shipping expert astatine Xeneta.

United States' usage of a ineligible statement requiring the practice of Panama to prehend vessels could beryllium perceived by China successful discourse of the larger combat implicit the canal. "If the vas is genuinely Panama-flagged and you're boarding connected the precocious seas, you typically request flag-state authorization (for Centuries that would beryllium Panama)," said Brandon Daniels, CEO of proviso concatenation consulting steadfast Exiger. "The U.S. and Panama person frameworks that tin streamline that consent. It would astir apt constituent to cooperation, via Salas-Becker oregon different mechanism," helium said.

While China framed the caller U.S. enactment arsenic an international-law violation, the U.S. is treating the seizure arsenic sanctions evasion, and shadow-fleet tactics meant to decision enforcement. "With the documented misrepresentations of root successful this case, I thin heavy to the latter," Daniels said.

But Daniels, who spoke with Panama President José Raúl Mulino earlier this twelvemonth astir the tensions implicit the Panama Canal, added, "He takes their sovereignty precise seriously."

Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison owns and operates the Balboa and Cristóbal ports which are located connected some sides of the canal. The U.S. has accused China of having "influence and control" implicit the canal, and claims that menace represents a "violation of the treaty" betwixt the U.S. and Panama.

A preliminary statement for the merchantability of the 2 disputed ports astatine the Panama Canal made earlier this twelvemonth betwixt CK Hutchison and a consortium led by BlackRock, done its Global Infrastructure Partners unit, and Mediterranean Shipping, has stalled. Beijing has been against the deal. China is reportedly pushing for state-owned water carrier Cosco to have a controlling stake in the projected $22.8 cardinal deal.

Daniels says the concerns of the Trump medication of Chinese power volition stay if Cosco is added into the agreement. But helium described Mulino arsenic besides prizing "the spot helium has with Asian trading partners."

"I don't deliberation the much assertive Chinese moves connected Balboa and Cristobal halt Panama from keeping the canal neutral oregon cooperating with the U.S.," Daniels said.

"China whitethorn summation a chokepoint successful planetary commercialized instrumentality transshipment capacity, berthing priority, gait operations, and commercialized information exhaust with Cosco having control. It does enactment unit connected the proviso chain," helium said. "But the CCP tin exert power implicit Hong Kong entities contiguous (like the existent operations proprietor CK)," helium added.

He said the existent concern shows the dynamic, analyzable relationships Panama has with some China and the U.S. "Panama is precise focused connected being a South Asian corridor and a large emblem authorities for vessels, but it seeks practice with the U.S arsenic a strategical imperative to sustainable funding," Daniels said.