How will the next Dalai Lama be chosen – and who could it be?

The Dalai Lama confirmed connected Wednesday that helium volition person a successor to transportation connected the relation of spiritual enactment to Tibetan Buddhists, successful a connection issued during continuing celebrations to people his 90th birthday.

He said that leaders of Tibet’s spiritual traditions, members of the Tibetan parliament and authorities successful exile, some of which are successful the Indian territory of Dharamshala, and Buddhists from astir the world, including mainland China and Tibet, had written to him, requesting that the instauration continue.

“In accordance with each these requests, I americium affirming that the instauration of the Dalai Lama volition continue,” helium said.

His statement, issued astatine a clip erstwhile Buddhist scholars and revered monks from astir the satellite person converged connected McLeodganj municipality successful Dharamshala, wherever the Dalai Lama lives, to enactment successful the 90th day celebrations. The town, besides known arsenic “Little Lhasa” due to the fact that it is successful effect the superior of Tibetan Buddhists successful exile, volition besides big an aggravated three-day spiritual league that the Dalai Lama volition preside over.

But the juncture isn’t lone religious. How the adjacent Dalai is chosen, and by whom, carries heavy geopolitical significance.

For centuries, Tibetan Buddhist leaders person chosen and enthroned a caller Dalai Lama lone aft an aggravated quest and consequent schooling aft the incumbent passes away. If the existent Dalai Lama, the 14th, offers immoderate much details successful the coming days astir however his successor mightiness beryllium chosen, oregon whom it mightiness be, that would correspond a melodramatic interruption with tradition.

What helium says, and doesn’t say, volition beryllium intimately watched successful Washington, New Delhi and Beijing.

The Dalai Lama, a Nobel Peace Prize laureate who fled Tibet for India successful 1959, is seen arsenic a separatist by Beijing. India, arsenic his big for 66 years, has heavy stakes successful the aboriginal of the instauration of the Dalai Lama, who has known each Indian premier curate since the state gained independence. And the United States, which has agelong cited the Tibetan question successful exile arsenic grounds of China’s quality rights excesses, volition privation to marque definite that the glue that binds it each – the instauration of the Dalai Lama – continues.

So, who volition take the adjacent Dalai Lama? Can the incumbent Dalai Lama stump the Chinese government? And could determination beryllium 2 Dalai Lamas?

How is simply a Dalai Lama chosen?

Choosing the adjacent Dalai Lama, who volition beryllium enthroned arsenic the spiritual person of Tibetan Buddhism, is simply a process rooted successful centuries-old traditions, spiritual beliefs, and rituals.

Traditions see the Dalai Lama arsenic the reincarnation of Avalokiteshvara, the Bodhisattva of Compassion, and each Dalai Lama is believed to beryllium the successor successful a enactment of reincarnations.

Traditionally, the hunt for the Dalai Lama’s reincarnation typically begins aft a play of mourning. High-ranking lamas (spiritual leaders) signifier a hunt committee to place the adjacent Dalai Lama, based connected signs specified arsenic the absorption of the fume blowing from his cremation, the absorption wherever helium was looking erstwhile helium died, and oracles’ visions, including astatine Lhamo Latso, a water considered beatified successful Tibet.

Once imaginable candidates are identified, they acquisition a bid of tests to corroborate their individuality arsenic the reincarnation. Candidates are usually young boys calved astatine astir the clip of the erstwhile Dalai Lama’s death. But the existent Dalai Lama has said that determination is nary crushed wherefore a pistillate cannot beryllium the adjacent reincarnation.

After a campaigner is chosen, the kid begins a rigorous acquisition successful Buddhist philosophy, scriptures and enactment responsibilities, preparing them to presume the relation of some a spiritual and, historically, governmental person of the Tibetan people.

Who is the existent Dalai Lama and however was helium chosen?

Tenzin Gyatso, the 14th and existent Dalai Lama, was calved arsenic Lhamo Dhondup connected July 6, 1935, to a farming household successful a portion present successful Qinghai province. He was identified arsenic a reincarnation erstwhile helium was hardly 2 years old.

After the decease of the 13th Dalai Lama, the hunt enactment concluded a four-year-long quest aft the toddler identified belongings of his predecessor with the phrase, “It’s mine, it’s mine.” While the bulk of Dalai Lamas person been calved successful Tibet, 1 was discovered successful Mongolia, and different successful a portion that contiguous lies successful northeastern India.

In March 1959, aft a failed Tibetan uprising against Chinese control, the Dalai Lama fled Lhasa successful disguise, crossing the Himalayas connected horseback and foot, yet reaching India connected March 31 that year. Nearly 100,000 Tibetan refugees unrecorded successful antithetic parts of India today, the community’s largest exile population.

His flight marked the extremity of accepted Tibetan governance and the opening of a beingness successful exile, from wherever helium led the Tibetan conflict for autonomy.

A coating by Kanwal Krishna, astir apt dated successful the 1930s, of a young Dalai Lama (Tenzin Gyatso, calved successful 1935), the accepted spiritual and temporal caput of Tibet’s Buddhist clergy [Kanwal Krishna/AFP]

What has the 14th Dalai Lama said astir his successor?

Addressing a beaming assemblage of followers and monks successful McLeodganj connected Monday, June 30, the Dalai Lama, clad successful his accepted reddish robes and yellowish scarf, said: “As acold arsenic the instauration of the Dalai Lama is concerned, determination volition beryllium a model for it to continue.

“I deliberation I person been capable to service the Dharma and sentient beings and I americium determined to proceed to bash so,” helium added, noting that astatine 90 years old, helium feels “physically steadfast and well”.

He has besides hinted astir wherever to look for the adjacent Dalai Lama. Noting that the intent of a reincarnation is to transportation connected the enactment of the predecessor, the 14th Dalai Lama wrote successful his book, Voice for the Voiceless, published successful March 2025, that “the caller Dalai Lama volition beryllium calved successful the escaped world”.

In effect, that has meant that the Dalai Lama has decreed that the reincarnation would not beryllium successful China oregon China-controlled Tibet. He had earlier said that his incarnation could beryllium recovered successful India.

For Tenzin Jigme, a 39-year-old who lives successful McLeodganj and works with the Tibetan government-in-exile, the specified thought of the Dalai Lama passing distant is heavy. His dependable broke arsenic helium said, “We unrecorded successful a escaped satellite due to the fact that helium led america here.”

“For each of us, surviving arsenic refugees, His Holiness Dalai Lama is simply a fatherly figure,” Jigme told Al Jazeera. “We request his reincarnation; look astatine the world, we request idiosyncratic to thatch america compassion.”

Was determination a hazard that determination wouldn’t beryllium a successor?

The 14th Dalai Lama has suggested successful the past that determination whitethorn not beryllium a successor astatine all.

In 2011, helium said that erstwhile helium turned 90, helium would consult his chap lamas and the Tibetan nationalist and “re‑evaluate whether the instauration of the Dalai Lama should proceed oregon not”.

In 2014, during a sojourn to the 14th World Summit of Nobel Peace Laureates successful Rome, the then-79-year-old spiritual person said that whether different Dalai Lama would beryllium enthroned aft him would beryllium connected the circumstances aft his decease and was “up to the Tibetan people”.

“The Dalai Lama instauration volition cease 1 day. These man-made institutions volition cease,” the Dalai Lama said successful an interrogation with the BBC. “There is nary warrant that immoderate anserine Dalai Lama won’t travel next, who volition disgrace himself oregon herself. That would beryllium precise sad. So, overmuch amended that a centuries-old contented should cease astatine the clip of a rather fashionable Dalai Lama.”

Dibyesh Anand, a prof of planetary relations astatine the University of Westminster and the writer of Geopolitical Exotica: Tibet successful Western Imagination, said the instauration of the Dalai Lama volition look immense uncertainty successful the coming decades.

But, helium said, “the past shows that this instauration has been much protean and resilient than politically power-based states.”

Subsequent exiled Dalai Lamas “will not person governmental powerfulness successful accepted sense”; however, the instauration volition stay “symbolically the bosom of the Tibetan federation and the astir respected authorization successful Tibetan Buddhism,” helium said.

A Chinese worker mans a checkpoint adjacent the Potala Palace, the erstwhile residence of the Dalai Lama, connected October 24, 1989 [Guy Dinmore/Reuters]

What is China’s presumption connected this?

China insists that lone its authorities has the authorization to o.k. the reincarnation of the Dalai Lama, treating it arsenic a substance of nationalist sovereignty and spiritual regulation. This presumption was cemented successful a 2007 law, which mandates that each reincarnations of Tibetan “living Buddhas” indispensable beryllium approved by the authorities and indispensable travel Chinese laws, spiritual rituals and humanities precedent.

Chinese officials person repeatedly stated that the adjacent Dalai Lama indispensable beryllium calved wrong China, and immoderate foreign-born oregon exile-appointed successor would beryllium considered “illegitimate”.

A cardinal constituent of China’s projected process is the Golden Urn system, an 18th-century Qing Dynasty method successful which the names of candidates are placed successful a aureate vas and 1 is selected by lot.

The existent Dalai Lama doesn’t favour this method, arguing that it lacks “spiritual quality”.

In March 2015, past Tibet Governor Padma Choling accused the Dalai Lama of “profaning religion and Tibetan Buddhism,” adding that the Dalai Lama was trying to usurp Beijing’s close to decide.

“If helium says nary reincarnation, past nary reincarnation? Impossible. Nobody successful Tibetan Buddhism would hold to that,” said Choling.

While talks implicit uncovering the adjacent Dalai Lama traditionally hap aft the decease of the incumbent one, the Chinese presumption has near monks and Tibetans successful exile disquieted that Beijing mightiness effort to hijack the institution.

The centrality of the Dalai Lama to the Tibetan nationalist question and his stature arsenic a planetary icon is an irritant for Beijing, said Anand, the professor.

“This is simply a conflict implicit legitimacy and not existent regularisation implicit territorial Tibet. Beijing seeks to triumph that conflict of legitimacy but faces an instauration and idiosyncratic successful the 14th Dalai Lama that is beyond its control,” helium told Al Jazeera.

Robert Barnett, a student of modern Tibetan past and authorities and laminitis of Columbia University’s Modern Tibetan Studies Program, said that immoderate “Chinese strategists spot the succession contented purely arsenic an accidental to frustrate the exile project”.

Another crushed could beryllium the Chinese leaders’ anticipation of different plausible Tibetan uprising. It helps Beijing to “have a ‘tame’ Dalai Lama to dissuade Tibetans from protest,” Barnett told Al Jazeera.

Has China hijacked a enactment before?

Yes. In 1995, the Dalai Lama recognised a young lad successful Tibet arsenic the reincarnation of the Panchen Lama – the 2nd astir important fig successful Tibetan Buddhism. He was a six-year-old, Gedhun Choekyi Nyima, the lad of a doc and a caregiver from the Tibetan municipality of Naqchu.

Soon after, Chinese authorities took the lad into custody and relocated the family. Their whereabouts are not known since.

In his place, Beijing appointed its ain candidate, a determination wide rejected by Tibetan Buddhists successful exile and galore wrong Tibet, who presumption the Chinese-selected Panchen Lama arsenic illegitimate.

The disappearance of the Panchen Lama successful 1995 was a turning constituent successful Chinese-Tibetan governmental history, said Barnett.

“The Chinese broadside decided that it has to power not conscionable which kid should beryllium chosen, but whether a lama tin reincarnate, wherever helium oregon she tin reincarnate, who should hunt for them,” helium said. The Chinese were wide that the Dalai Lama needed to beryllium excluded from the process.

That occurrence is simply a cardinal crushed wherefore the existent Dalai Lama and Tibetans successful exile are opposed to the enactment of immoderate aboriginal reincarnation wrong China, including Tibet. The chosen kid mightiness simply beryllium abducted, arsenic happened 30 years ago.

Anand said that China’s extremity is to dishearten and disagreement Tibetans. “If [China] cannot execute it done winning hearts and minds, they’d bash it done disagreement and rule, and this is however we should spot the conflict implicit reincarnation,” helium told Al Jazeera.

Tibetans successful New Delhi transportation pictures of Gedun Choekyi Nyima, the Panchen Lama reincarnation recognised by the Dalai Lama, and outcry anti-Chinese slogans to people their protestation connected December 8 against the enthronement of different Panchen Lama recognised by the Chinese authorities successful Tibet contiguous [Reuters]

A lawsuit of 2 rival Dalai Lamas

Tibet observers and scholars judge that aft the 14th Dalai Lama’s death, Tibetan Buddhists mightiness good find a script wherever 2 rival successors jostle for legitimacy – an exiled leader, appointed by the lamas faithful to the incumbent Dalai Lama, and 1 appointed by the Chinese government.

It would beryllium unprecedented successful the past of Tibetan Buddhism, but “is highly apt to occur,” said Barnett.

While the world of 2 Dalai Lamas whitethorn not substance to exiled Tibetans from a spiritual perspective, it “makes beingness precise hard for Tibetans wrong Tibet who volition beryllium forced successful immense numbers to publically state their loyalty to China implicit and implicit again”.

Barnett noted that Beijing could besides usage the succession contented arsenic leverage to get overseas governments to marginalise organisations of Tibetans successful exile successful those countries.

Anand said that Beijing’s insistence connected its campaigner “will beryllium a root of instability successful China-Tibetan relations” and “may travel backmost to haunt the Chinese Communist Party”.

In an interrogation successful March 2019, the Dalai Lama acknowledged that pursuing his death, determination could beryllium 2 rival Dalai Lamas. “In future, successful lawsuit you spot 2 Dalai Lamas come, 1 from here, successful escaped country, 1 chosen by Chinese, past cipher volition trust, cipher volition respect [the 1 chosen by China],” helium said.

“So that’s an further occupation for the Chinese! It’s possible, it tin happen,” the Dalai Lama added, laughing.

This photograph taken connected September 17, 1959, shows Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru (R) and the Dalaï Lama successful a Buddhist salutation [Punjab/AFP)

Is the enactment besides a geostrategic issue?

It is, chiefly for India and the United States.

For India, which hosts the Tibetan government-in-exile, the succession of the Dalai Lama intersects with nationalist information and its fraught borderline narration with China.

New Delhi volition privation to transportation connected giving hospitality and refuge to the Dalai Lama and his followers, said Anand. He added that the “Tibetan exiles successful India connection a leverage and buffer to India vis-a-vis China’s power successful the Himalayan region”.

The US’s involvement successful Tibet dates backmost to the Cold War era, erstwhile the CIA backed Tibetan absorption against Chinese occupation, successful the 1950s, including aft the Dalai Lama’s exile.

Washington has agelong shown bipartisan enactment for the spiritual autonomy of Tibetan Buddhists, including successful choosing the adjacent Dalai Lama.

In 2015, erstwhile China claimed authorization to prime the adjacent Dalai Lama, US officials publically rejected this, asserting that Tibetan Buddhists unsocial should decide. The astir forceful presumption came successful 2020 with the transition of the Tibetan Policy and Support Act (TPSA) nether President Donald Trump.

The caller US presumption explicitly supported the Dalai Lama’s close to find his ain reincarnation and authorised sanctions connected Chinese officials who interfered successful the process.

The planetary enactment for the Tibetan close to determine connected the instauration of the Dalai Lama, Anand said, “is going to play retired successful geopolitical rivalry betwixt the US and China arsenic good arsenic China and India successful the future”.