India is set to host Russia's Putin, deepening trade ties, unfazed by punitive U.S. tariffs

As India reels nether punitive U.S. tariffs implicit its purchases of Russian oil, New Delhi is each acceptable to big President Vladmir Putin for a two-day visit, signaling its determination to deepen ties with Moscow.

The sojourn indicates that India wants to "maintain its relations with Russia, particularly astatine a clip erstwhile it sees the United States arsenic unreliable and China arsenic hostile," said Ian Bremmer, president and laminitis of governmental hazard consultancy steadfast Eurasia Group.

Putin volition beryllium successful India connected Dec 4-5 for the 23rd India-Russia yearly summit, with experts saying the 2 countries volition widen their strategical and commercialized ties.

While this sojourn was planned earlier U.S.-India ties soured, it signifies that "New Delhi is not beholden to the whims of the Trump medication and that it maintains an autarkic overseas policy," said Chietigj Bajpaee, elder probe chap for South Asia successful the Asia-Pacific Programme astatine Chatham House.

Kremlin said past week that Putin's sojourn was of "great importance" with the Russian president and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi acceptable to sermon the "scope of Russia-India peculiar and privileged strategical concern successful politics, commercialized and economy," among different issues.

The 2 leaders are expected to contented a associated connection and whitethorn besides motion a "wide scope of bilateral interdepartmental and concern agreements" it added.

Expanding commercialized volition beryllium the large absorption of the summit, which could assistance India execute a much balanced bilateral commercialized with Russia, said Aleksei Zakharov, visiting chap astatine Indian deliberation vessel Observer Research Foundation.

In fiscal twelvemonth ended March 2025, commercialized betwixt India and Russia stood astatine $68.72 billion, heavy skewed successful favour of Russia, according to data government-backed India Brand Equity Foundation. Indian exports to Russia were conscionable $4.88 cardinal portion imports stood astatine $63.84 billion, it said. The countries purpose to expand bilateral commercialized to $100 cardinal by 2030.

India could ramp up its shipments of machinery, chemicals, nutrient and pharmaceutical products to Russia, portion Moscow is pitching its technological solutions for civilian atomic energy, including gathering tiny modular reactors successful India, said Zakharov.

"New Delhi and Moscow are seeking to compensate for India's reduced purchases of Russian lipid by diversifying their commercialized narration to different areas, including defence and civilian atomic cooperation," said Bajpaee of Chatham House.

The 2 leaders are apt to sermon India's acquisition of Russia's next-generation Su-57 combatant jets and its precocious S-500 rocket defence shield, according to a report by Bloomberg.

Some experts, however, person raised doubts implicit Russia's quality to grant a defence deal.

"India and Russia volition speech astir weapons, but Russia tin hardly present connected the S-400 already connected bid due to the fact that of spot shortages," said Bremmer of Eurasia Group, adding that "India is not funny successful the su-57 fighter."

Between 2020 and 2024, Russia was the largest supplier of arms to India with 36% share, followed by France astatine 33% and Israel astatine 13%, according to information from Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

But Russia's stock has been declining from 55% successful 2015–19 and 72% successful 2010–14. India is shifting sourcing of arms toward suppliers specified arsenic France, Israel and the U.S., SIPRI noted successful its study successful March this year.

India has been nether unit from the U.S. to chopped backmost connected its imports of Russian lipid arsenic Washington claims this enables Moscow to withstanding unit of economical sanctions by the West and proceed its warfare against Ukraine.

New Delhi incurs an further 25% levy, connected apical of 25% tariffs connected its exports to the U.S. arsenic a "penalty" for its purchases of Russian energy. The 50% U.S. tariffs connected Indian goods, amongst the highest connected immoderate country, came into effect connected Aug. 27.

The U.S. has accused India of importing Russian lipid and reselling it successful the unfastened marketplace for a "significant profit," enabling Moscow to money its aggression. New Delhi has said that its lipid imports are based connected the "objective of ensuring vigor information of 1.4 cardinal radical of India."

In its bid to mend ties with the U.S., New Delhi has ramped up vigor purchases from Washington with Indian state-owned lipid companies signing a 1-year woody to import astir 2.2 cardinal tonnes per annum of liquefied petroleum state from the U.S.

The state has besides been cutting backmost connected its Russian lipid purchases aft the U.S. sanctioned Russia's 2 largest lipid companies, Rosneft and Lukoil.  

However, Sumit Ritolia, pb probe expert astatine vigor quality steadfast Kpler told CNBC that Russian lipid exports to India volition driblet successful the abbreviated word but volition prime up done caller intermediatory companies that tin circumvent the sanctions.

A deficiency of U.S.-India commercialized woody could mean gross nonaccomplishment of $20 cardinal successful commercialized surplus for India portion the outgo vantage with Russian discounted lipid was astir $8 billion, said Arpit Chaturvedi, advisor with Teneo's geopolitical hazard advisory team.  "Weighed lone successful monetary terms, the commercialized with U.S. is overmuch much important for India," helium added.

Putin's sojourn to India comes astatine a clip erstwhile the U.S. has been striving to broker a bid woody betwixt Ukraine and Russia.

On Tuesday, Putin, U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner met successful Moscow for 5 hours to sermon the extremity of warfare betwixt Russia and Ukraine. Kremlin reportedly said the meeting was constructive but determination was nary breakthrough.

India volition beryllium hoping for an eventual bid woody arsenic that volition assistance trim scrutiny of the India-Russia relationship, said Bajpaee.