India-Pakistan missile race heats up, but China in crosshairs, too

Islamabad, Pakistan – India connected August 20 announced that it had successfully test-fired Agni-V, its intermediate-range ballistic missile, from a trial scope successful Odisha connected its eastbound Bay of Bengal coast.

The Agni-V, meaning “fire” successful Sanskrit, is 17.5 metres long, weighs 50,000kg, and tin transportation much than 1,000kg of atomic oregon accepted payload. Capable of travelling much than 5,000km astatine hypersonic speeds of astir 30,000km per hour, it is among the fastest ballistic missiles successful the world.

The Agni trial came precisely a week aft Pakistan announced the enactment of a caller Army Rocket Force Command (ARFC), aimed, accidental experts, astatine plugging holes successful its antiaircraft posture exposed by India during the four-day struggle betwixt the nuclear-armed neighbours successful May.

But experts accidental the latest Indian trial mightiness beryllium a connection little for Pakistan and much for different neighbour that New Delhi is cautiously warming up to again: China.

The Agni’s range puts astir of Asia, including China’s bluish regions, and parts of Europe wrong reach. This was the missile’s 10th trial since 2012 and its archetypal since March past year, but its timing, accidental analysts, was significant.

It came conscionable up of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s trip to China for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit, amid a thaw successful ties – aft years of hostility implicit their disputed borderline – that has been accelerated by United States President Donald Trump’s tariff warfare against India. On Wednesday, the US tariffs connected Indian goods doubled to 50 percent amid tensions implicit New Delhi’s oil purchases from Russia.

Yet contempt that displacement successful ties with Beijing, India continues to presumption China arsenic its superior menace successful the neighbourhood, accidental experts, underscoring the analyzable narration betwixt the world’s 2 astir populous nations. And it’s astatine China that India’s improvement of mean and long-range missiles is chiefly aimed, they say.

India’s rocket vantage implicit Pakistan

While India acknowledged losing an unspecified fig of combatant jets during the May skirmish with Pakistan, it besides inflicted important harm connected Pakistani subject bases, peculiarly with its supersonic BrahMos cruise missiles.

The BrahMos, susceptible of carrying atomic oregon accepted payloads of up to 300kg, has a scope of astir 500km. Its debased altitude, terrain-hugging trajectory and blistering velocity marque it hard to intercept, allowing it to penetrate Pakistani territory with comparative ease.

Many experts reason that this discourse shows the Agni-V trial is not straight linked to Pakistan’s announcement of the ARFC. Instead, they say, the trial was apt a awesome to China. Indian and Chinese troops were successful an eyeball-to-eyeball standoff on their disputed Himalayan borderline for 4 years aft a deadly clash successful 2020, earlier Modi met Chinese President Xi Jinping successful Russia successful October 2024 to statesman a process of detente.

Modi’s sojourn to China for the SCO acme connected Sunday volition beryllium his archetypal to that state since 2018. In the past, India has often felt betrayed by overtures to China, which, it claims, person often been followed by aggression from Beijing on their border.

“India’s request for a long-range, but not intercontinental, rocket is dictated by its menace cognition of China,” Manpreet Sethi, a distinguished chap astatine the New Delhi-based Centre for Air Power Studies, told Al Jazeera.

“Agni-V is simply a nuclear-capable ballistic rocket of 5,000km range, which India has been processing arsenic portion of its atomic deterrence capableness against China. It has nary relevance to Pakistan,” Sethi added.

Christopher Clary, adjunct prof of governmental subject astatine the University astatine Albany, agreed.

“While the Agni-V mightiness beryllium usable against Pakistan, its superior ngo would impact strikes connected China,” helium told Al Jazeera. “China’s eastbound coast, wherever its astir economically and politically important cities are situated, is hard to scope from India and requires long-range missiles.”

Missile contention crossed South Asia

India and Pakistan person been steadily expanding their rocket arsenals successful caller years, unveiling caller systems with expanding reach.

Before announcing the ARFC, Pakistan showcased the Fatah-4, a cruise rocket with a 750km scope and the capableness to transportation some accepted and atomic warheads.

India, meanwhile, is moving connected Agni-VI, which is expected to person a scope exceeding 10,000km and transportation aggregate independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs), a capableness already contiguous successful Agni-V.

MIRV-enabled missiles tin transportation respective atomic warheads, each susceptible of striking a abstracted target, importantly boosting their destructive potential.

Mansoor Ahmed, an honorary lecturer astatine the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Australian National University, said India’s latest trial demonstrates its increasing intercontinental rocket capabilities.

“With India moving connected antithetic variants of Agni with aggregate capabilities, this trial was a technological demonstrator for India’s emerging submarine-launched ballistic rocket (SLBM) capability,” Ahmed said.

“Depending connected the configuration of the warheads for India’s SLBMs, India volition beryllium capable to deploy anyplace betwixt 200-300 warheads connected its SSBN unit unsocial implicit the adjacent decade,” helium added. SSBNs (ship, submersible, ballistic, nuclear) are nuclear-powered submarines designed to transportation SLBMs equipped with atomic warheads. India presently has two SSBNs successful service, with 2 much nether construction.

Pakistan, by contrast, does not person long-range missiles oregon atomic submarines. Its longest-range operational ballistic missile, the Shaheen-III, has a scope of 2,750km.

“Pakistan besides has South Asia’s archetypal MIRV-enabled ballistic rocket called Ababeel, which tin onslaught up to 2,200km range, but it is the shortest-ranged MIRV-enabled strategy deployed by immoderate nuclear-armed state,” Ahmed said.

Tughral Yamin, a erstwhile Pakistani service brigadier and atomic argumentation scholar, said the countries’ rocket ambitions bespeak divergent priorities.

“Pakistan’s programme is wholly Indian-specific and antiaircraft successful nature, portion India’s ambitions widen beyond the subcontinent. Its long-range systems are designed for planetary powerfulness projection, peculiarly vis-a-vis China, and to found itself arsenic a large powerfulness with credible deterrence against large states,” said Yamin, writer of The Evolution of Nuclear Deterrence successful South Asia.

But immoderate experts accidental Pakistan’s rocket improvement programme isn’t lone astir India.

Ashley J Tellis, the Tata Chair for Strategic Affairs astatine the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (CEIP), said that portion “India wants to beryllium capable to scope China and Pakistan,” Islamabad is gathering the capableness to support Israel – and adjacent the US – successful its range, successful summation to India.

“The accepted rocket unit successful some countries is designed to onslaught captious targets without putting manned onslaught craft astatine risk,” Tellis told Al Jazeera.

US concerns implicit Pakistan’s ambitions, quiescent acceptance of India’s rise

Pakistan’s rocket programme came nether aggravated spotlight successful December past twelvemonth erstwhile a elder White House authoritative warned of Islamabad’s increasing ambitions.

Jon Finer, serving successful the then-Biden administration, described Pakistan’s pursuit of precocious rocket exertion arsenic an “emerging threat” to the United States.

Pakistan publically displayed its Fatah-4 rocket connected the eve of the country’s 78th Independence Day connected August 14, 2025, successful Islamabad [Anjum Naveed/AP Photo]

“If the inclination continues, Pakistan volition person the capableness to onslaught targets good beyond South Asia, including successful the United States,” Finer said during an lawsuit astatine the CEIP.

By contrast, Tellis said India’s increasing arsenal is not viewed arsenic destabilising by Washington oregon its allies.

“Pakistan’s capabilities successful opposition are viewed arsenic unsettling due to the fact that the aboriginal past of its atomic programme had anti-Western overtones, sentiments that person taken connected a circumstantial anti-US colouration aft 9/11 and the Abbottabad raid,” Tellis explained, referring to the US seizure of Osama bin Laden wrong Pakistan successful 2011.

Ahmed, the Canberra-based academic, said India’s long-range rocket improvement is openly supported by Western powers arsenic portion of the US-led Asia Pacific strategy.

“The US and European powers person viewed and encouraged India to enactment arsenic a nett information provider. The India-US civilian atomic woody and the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) waiver efficaciously gave India de facto atomic weapons presumption without signing the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT),” helium said.

The NPT is simply a Cold War-era pact aimed astatine preventing the dispersed of atomic weapons, promoting the peaceful usage of atomic vigor and advancing the extremity of atomic disarmament. It formally recognises lone the United States, Russia, China, France and Britain arsenic atomic weapons states.

But the 2008 waiver from the NSG – a nine of 48 nations that merchantability atomic worldly and exertion – allowed India to prosecute successful planetary atomic commercialized contempt not being an NPT signatory, a unsocial presumption that elevated its planetary standing.

Clary from the University of Albany, however, pointed retired that dissimilar the Biden administration, the existent Trump White House has not expressed immoderate concerns astir Pakistan’s rocket programme – oregon astir India’s Agni-V test.

“For now, truthful agelong arsenic Pakistan keeps its rocket tests constricted to ranges already demonstrated by the Shaheen-III and Ababeel, I don’t expect Western governments to interest themselves overly with South Asia’s rocket developments,” helium said. “There are much than capable different problems to support them busy.”