Iran aided Russia against Ukraine. Now it needs to call in the favor

Iran has been 1 of Russia's fewer staunch allies throughout the war against Ukraine, but Tehran present faces the strain of indirectly warring its nemesis Israel connected 2 fronts.

Under pressure — but inactive defiant — Iran could commencement looking to Russia for help, given its need for greater aerial defence capabilities and subject quality to observe a highly-anticipated but yet-to-materialize direct Israeli onslaught connected Iran, analysts told CNBC.

Russia is well-positioned to supply Tehran with specified capabilities, but the grade to which it volition assistance the Islamic Republic remains uncertain.

"I afloat expect that the Iranians person precocious expectations of the Russians to supply them with something," Bilal Y. Saab, subordinate chap successful the Middle East and North Africa Programme astatine deliberation vessel Chatham House, told CNBC Thursday, noting that estimation is of the utmost value successful planetary relations — adjacent among authoritarian countries.

"So if the Russians are going to bail connected this, it's going to person consequences with regards not lone to its narration with the Iranians, but to immoderate different partner, specified arsenic the Chinese," helium said.

"They've got to support immoderate benignant of estimation that they are bully for it, and truthful I person medium-to-high expectations that they would really supply them with what they need. Now, whether they supply them with everything they need, this is what cipher knows."

Russia is improbable to connection subject involution against Israel connected behalf of the Iranians, Saab said, fixed it is already "too bogged down successful Ukraine."

"It's besides excessively risky of a crippled to spell against the United States implicit the Iranians ... truthful I deliberation that [it's] much apt they would enactment connected the sidelines and effort to assistance from arsenic acold distant arsenic possible," helium said.

CNBC has contacted the Kremlin and Iranian overseas ministry for remark and has yet to person a response.

Arms transfers betwixt the 2 allies person led the U.S. to picture Iran arsenic Russia's "top subject backer," though both countries contradict drone and rocket transfers person taken place. Tehran has conceded that it sent drones to Russia earlier the warfare began, however.

Russia besides denies utilizing drones to onslaught Ukrainian infrastructure, though determination person been galore instances of Iranian-made drones damaging Ukrainian infrastructure oregon being intercepted during the war.

In the meantime, Tehran has turned to Russia to assistance physique up its ain subject capabilities, looking to procure blase Russia aerial defence systems and a assortment of combat aircraft, according to reports, though the details surrounding the transportation of specified hardware remain hazy.

"The proviso of Iranian drones and, much recently, missiles to Russia for its run successful Ukraine marked a important improvement successful the Russia-Iran relationship. In part, the warfare itself served arsenic an accelerant to the already burgeoning Russia-Iran ties, propelling their practice to caller heights," Karim Sadjadpour and Nicole Grajewski from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace deliberation vessel noted successful investigation earlier this month.

In instrumentality for Iran's support, Russia has bolstered Iran's subject capabilities successful respective areas, they noted: "Iran has made notable advancement successful acquiring precocious accepted weaponry from Russia, allowing it to execute immoderate of its defence officials' long-standing goals. In November 2023, Tehran secured deals for Su-35 combatant jets, Yak-130 grooming aircraft, and Mi-28 onslaught helicopters, though lone the Yak-130s person been delivered truthful far."

Russia has been offering Iran "an unprecedented level of subject and method enactment that is transforming their narration into a full-fledged defence partnership," National Security Council Spokesperson John Kirby said successful precocious 2022. "This concern poses a threat, not conscionable to Ukraine, but to Iran's neighbors successful the region," helium said astatine the time.

Fast guardant to October 2024 and Russia's appetite to bolster Tehran's subject capabilities mightiness beryllium waning arsenic its warfare against Ukraine drags on, portion Iran's quality to proviso Russia with weaponry could present beryllium limited.

Tehran is indirectly warring its nemesis Israel connected 2 fronts with its determination proxies, the militant groups Hamas and Hezbollah, coming nether dense and sustained Israeli attacks successful the Gaza Strip and successful Lebanon, respectively, and looking severely weakened aft the deaths of the militant groups' leaders.

The factions, on with Iranian-backed Houthis successful Yemen, marque up what Tehran refers to arsenic the "Axis of Resistance," which Iran backs successful bid to reason Israeli and U.S. power successful the region. That shared antipathy toward the U.S. and tendency to make a "new satellite order" are what mostly binds Iran and Russia.

This week could bring much clarity connected their deepening economical and strategical cooperation, erstwhile Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Iranian counterpart Masoud Pezeshkian conscionable connected the sidelines of the BRICS acme successful Russia.

Both countries person said they are adjacent to signing a "strategic concern agreement" — negotiations implicit which began successful aboriginal 2022 — and this could beryllium finalized astatine forum. It remains to beryllium seen what the concern volition entail.

Russia is apt watching the enlargement of Israel's subject enactment successful the Gaza enclave and Lebanon cautiously fixed its ain military, economical and geopolitical interests successful the Middle East.

It has, truthful far, maintained mostly bully relations successful the region, including with arch rivals Iran and Israel, arsenic good arsenic deepening strategical ties with Syria, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

As such, the warring betwixt Israel and Iran's proxies could beryllium starting to encroach connected Russia's interests successful the area.

The astir caller illustration of this is Israel's Oct. 3 bombing of Iranian forces adjacent Syria's Khmeimim Air Base, which has been operated by Russia since it propped up Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's authorities during the country's civilian warfare a decennary ago.

Analysts accidental it remains unclear what Russia would bash to enactment Iran successful the lawsuit of a wider and nonstop warfare betwixt Iran and Israel, questioning the extent of the confederation and fixed the information that Moscow is already enmeshed successful the warfare successful Ukraine, which is simply a monolithic gully connected manpower and subject resources.

"The escalating struggle betwixt Israel and Iran is opening to interaction Russian interests successful the Middle East, arsenic good arsenic endanger a full scope of Russian-Iranian projects," Nikita Smagin, an Iran adept with the Russian International Affairs Council, said successful investigation Monday.

"Nevertheless, Moscow prefers to accommodate to the evolving concern alternatively than to get straight involved. Russia cannot — and volition not — prevention Iran successful its confrontation with Israel and the United States," helium noted.

Moscow's warfare successful Ukraine means it has "no time" for different war, according to Smagin, who added that Russia would lone beryllium motivated to impact itself indirectly successful the struggle with Israel if the extremity effect were to weaken the U.S.

"Russia could question to enactment Iran by supplying weapons to Iranian proxy forces, including Hezbollah and the Houthis," Smagin said. "However, for the Kremlin, that would beryllium much logical if specified deliveries were going to harm the United States, alternatively than Israel."