Iraq’s PM al-Sudani may win the elections, but lose his post

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani is bidding for a 2nd term, a extremity that requires his electoral bloc, the Construction and Development Coalition, to triumph a commanding fig of seats successful the November 11 parliamentary elections and backmost his enactment for the role.

Al-Sudani’s run is built connected his government’s successes successful improving services, maintaining balanced relations betwixt Tehran and Washington, and steering Iraq wide of determination struggle since October 7, 2023.

However, portion analysts foretell al-Sudani’s conjugation whitethorn triumph the highest fig of seats, it whitethorn good disintegrate aft the predetermination results are announced.

A broad, not unified, coalition

Al-Sudani’s coalition, announced in May 2025, includes 7 governmental forces.

The astir salient are Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) Chairman Faleh al-Fayyad; Minister of Labour Ahmed al-Asadi; and Karbala Governor Nassif al-Khattabi.

It also includes influential tribal leaders (sheikhs) and immoderate 53 incumbent MPs, astir of whom won arsenic independents successful 2021 oregon defected from parties wrong the Shia Coordination Framework (SCF), the main Shia parliamentary bloc that nominated al-Sudani 4 years ago.

The conjugation besides contains the Al-Furratain Current, the enactment al-Sudani founded aft resigning from the Dawa Party pursuing the 2019 Tishreen protests. However, his is the smallest faction successful this wide alliance.

Local observers successful cardinal and confederate Iraq enactment that al-Sudani’s occurrence successful getting different candidates to tally with him masks the weakness of Al-Furratain and whitethorn really beryllium the operator of his coalition’s post-election collapse.

The coalition’s tickets are dominated by the tribal sheikhs and different candidates, portion Al-Furratain’s cadres, those closest and astir loyal to al-Sudani, are the slightest apt to triumph seats.

These partners are blessed to leverage the premier minister’s existent powerfulness to further their ain popularity, but past elections bespeak that their loyalty volition beryllium transactional and is not expected to outlast his afloat premier ministerial authority.

Take al-Fayyad, who al-Sudani protected erstwhile Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq (AAH), an SCF enactment led by Qais al-Khazali, pushed a instrumentality that would person forced him into status to marque mode for AAH to emergence to much powerfulness successful the PMF.

When al-Sudani becomes a caretaker premier curate aft the predetermination and SCF rivals resume their propulsion to region al-Fayyad, helium volition question caller alliances to support himself.

The tribal sheikhs and MPs usage being connected al-Sudani’s database to leverage authorities resources to deliver services successful their electoral districts and fast-track authorities approvals for their constituents.

MP Dhiaa Hindi, a Sudani campaigner successful Karbala, boasts connected Facebook of processing 16,000 authoritative transactions during his 3 nd a fractional years successful parliament.

These aforesaid MPs whitethorn good leap vessel erstwhile rival blocs, intent connected blocking al-Sudani’s 2nd term, connection them fiscal incentives and power successful the adjacent government.

Former Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi tried gathering a loyal bloc to unafraid a 2nd word by supporting autarkic candidates successful the 2021 elections, hoping that loyal MPs would fortify his negotiating position.

“Twenty-three of those we supported won,” recalled a elder authoritative who served successful al-Kadhimi’s office, speaking connected information of anonymity.

“But … erstwhile we needed their votes arsenic a bloc to enactment Kadhimi’s information during the authorities enactment talks, they each abandoned [him]. They demanded immense sums of money, luxury cars, and authorities unit for their idiosyncratic service. We couldn’t supply these things, adjacent if we wanted to; we were a caretaker authorities with nary ineligible authority.”

As a soon-to-be caretaker PM, al-Sudani apt has al-Kadhimi’s acquisition apical of mind.

‘Construction’

The coalition’s “Construction and Development” rhetoric, symbolised by its operation crane logo, centres connected al-Sudani’s show successful delivering services.

However, astir projects are concentrated successful Baghdad, portion provincial allocations person decreased significantly.

This is simply a high-risk governmental calculation connected al-Sudani’s part, a strategy Iraqi governmental analysts construe arsenic trying to physique a disposable bequest successful the capital, which holds 69 of parliament’s 329 seats and wherever helium is moving arsenic a candidate.

According to parliamentary concern committee documents, funds allocated to section governments shrank by 60 percent, from 8.783 trillion dinars ($6.7bn) successful erstwhile years to 2.767 trillion ($2.1bn) successful 2024 – the national authorities holding astir of that wealth to walk successful Baghdad.

“What should person been spent connected infrastructure, schools, and hospitals successful the provinces was spent connected roads and bridges successful Baghdad,” said MP Adnan al-Zurfi, parliamentary concern committee subordinate for the past 8 years.

Najaf Governor Yousef Kannawi noted that lone 60 cardinal of the 500 cardinal dinars allocated to his state had arrived.

A Ministry of Finance papers from the archetypal fractional of 2025 shows projects successful Baghdad received 822 cardinal dinars ($629m), portion the remainder of the cardinal and confederate provinces, the main electoral basal for Shia parties, received lone 600 cardinal dinars ($459m) combined.

The notable objection is Karbala, whose Governor al-Khattabi is successful al-Sudani’s conjugation and received 318 cardinal dinars ($243m), abstracted from different governorates.

These sidelined confederate provinces that are paying for al-Sudani’s electoral strategy are accepted strongholds for the SCF.

What comes adjacent for al-Sudani?

In a televised interrogation connected Saturday, AAH’s al-Khazali said a 2nd word for al-Sudani would beryllium “the determination of the Coordination Framework [SCF]”, emphasising that the station is taxable to the “Shia consensus”.

He was referring to the Muhasasa system, successful spot since the archetypal elected authorities successful 2006, that grants Shia parties the close to sanction the premier minister, portion Kurds sanction the president and Sunni the talker of parliament.

Nouri al-Maliki, erstwhile premier curate and person of the State of Law coalition, echoed this successful a abstracted interview, saying becoming premier curate “is not related to the fig of seats won”.

These statements are a effect to al-Sudani’s attempts to physique an autarkic powerfulness base, which SCF leaders similar al-Maliki and al-Khazali spot arsenic their appointee trying to situation their semipermanent power of Shia politics.

This presumption was aired by al-Khazali arsenic acold backmost arsenic 2022, erstwhile helium publically stated that the premier curate is simply a “director-general”- an administrative, apolitical role. The PM, helium insisted, “should not monopolise authorities decisions … He indispensable instrumentality to the Framework for each decisions, whether political, security, oregon economic.”

They are publically reminding him, and his caller allies, that helium is dispensable and that the way to a 2nd word runs through, not around, them.

This puts al-Sudani successful a bind, with his 2nd word depending connected navigating 2 challenges: First, holding his fragile electoral bloc unneurotic and, second, undertaking post-election negotiations with Shia rivals who are already signalling helium is dispensable.

Al-Sudani astatine his coalition’s rally earlier the elections, successful Mosul, connected October 18, 2025 [Hadi Mizban/AP]