Is California’s congressional map a Democratic gerrymander as Vance claims?

Texas Republicans, astatine President Donald Trump’s urging, are preparing to redraw the state’s legislature representation successful a mode that could flip up to 5 seats to the GOP successful 2026. Trump hopes to boost Republicans’ chances of maintaining a constrictive House bulk amid the headwinds of the midterm election.

The manoeuvre successful Texas would beryllium ineligible and not unprecedented for the state, which besides undertook a Republican-driven redistricting successful 2003. But Democrats person called the determination a partisan powerfulness drawback and an affront to the accepted signifier of drafting caller legislature districts each 10 years, aft a caller Census.

But the statement implicit Texas’s electoral representation has besides prompted broader questions implicit the fairness of the mode successful which voting districts are outlined. And the 1 authorities bigger than Texas – California – has caught the attraction of Vice President JD Vance.

“The gerrymander successful California is outrageous,” Vance posted July 30 connected X. “Of their 52 legislature districts, 9 of them are Republican. That means 17 percent of their delegation is Republican erstwhile Republicans regularly triumph 40 percent of the ballot successful that state. How tin this perchance beryllium allowed?”

So, does California person an unfair map, arsenic Vance said?

By the numbers, California is not a melodramatic outlier erstwhile it comes to the quality betwixt its legislature and statesmanlike vote. However, due to the fact that this quality is multiplied by a ample fig of districts – since California is the United States’ astir populous authorities – it produces a bounty of House seats beyond what the state’s statesmanlike ballot unsocial would predict.

Vance’s statement of California’s representation arsenic a “gerrymander” is besides doubtful – it was drawn by a bipartisan commission, not Democratic legislators. Gerrymandering is done by politicians and governmental parties.

Vance’s bureau did not respond to an enquiry for this article.

What the numbers show

Our archetypal measurement was to measurement the quality betwixt each state’s House-seat breakdown by enactment and its presidential-vote breakdown by party, which is what Vance cited. (Our investigation builds disconnected of a 2023 Sabato’s Crystal Ball communicative written by this author. Sabato’s Crystal Ball is simply a work of the University of Virginia Center for Politics.) We removed from information immoderate authorities with one, 2 oregon 3 House members successful its delegation, due to the fact that these tiny states person wide differentials that skew the comparison.

For reddish states won by Trump, we took the percent of Republican seats successful the House delegation and subtracted the percent of the ballot Trump won successful that state. Conversely, for blue states won by Kamala Harris, we took the percent of Democratic seats successful the House delegation and subtracted the percent of the ballot Harris won successful the state.

Our investigation recovered that California did elite much Democrats to the House than its statesmanlike ballot stock would person predicted, but the authorities was not an outlier. With 83% of its House seats held by Democrats and 58% of its 2024 statesmanlike votes going to Democrats, California ranked 13th nationally among 35 states that person astatine slightest 4 seats successful their delegation.

California has the nation’s 13th widest quality betwixt House and statesmanlike results

The apical 13 differentials were divided astir evenly betwixt bluish and reddish states.

In six states that person astatine slightest 4 House seats – reddish Iowa, Utah, Arkansas and Oklahoma, and bluish Connecticut and Massachusetts – a azygous enactment controls each House seat, adjacent though the winning statesmanlike candidate won betwixt 56% and 66% of the ballot successful those states.

Another six states had a differential adjacent to oregon wider than California’s: Red South Carolina and Tennessee, and bluish Oregon, Illinois and Maryland, positive purple Wisconsin.

California does basal retired by different measure, due to the fact that of its size.

If you multiply the House-to-presidential differential by the fig of House seats successful the delegation, you get a fig for “excess House seats”, the word utilized successful the 2023 Sabato’s Crystal Ball nonfiction – essentially, a bulk party’s bonus successful House seats beyond what statesmanlike show would predict.

Because California has a ample colonisation represented by galore House districts, adjacent its humble differential produces a batch of other Democratic House seats – 12, to beryllium exact. That’s the largest of immoderate state; the closest competitors are bluish Illinois and New York, and reddish Florida, each of which has much than 4 excess seats for the bulk party.

Texas’s existent legislature representation has 3.7 excess seats for the Republicans. That would summation to an 8.7-seat GOP bonus if the GOP tin flip the 5 seats they’re hoping for successful 2026.

Is California a “gerrymander”?

Vance described California’s representation arsenic a gerrymander, but governmental experts doubted that this word applies. A gerrymander typically refers to a representation drawn by partisan lawmakers, and California’s is drawn by a committee approved by voters specifically to region the partisanship from legislature representation drawing.

“California’s legislature representation is nary gerrymander,” said Nathaniel Rakich, a contributing expert to Inside Elections, a governmental analytics publication. “It was drawn by an autarkic committee consisting of 5 Republicans, 5 Democrats, and 4 independents that is mostly upheld arsenic 1 of the fairest map-drawing entities successful immoderate state.”

Kyle Kondik, the managing exertion of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, said commissions thin to nutrient a much competitory House battleground than a afloat partisan system. Of the 19 House seats his outlet presently rates arsenic toss-ups going into 2026, lone 2 travel from states wherever 1 enactment had a escaped manus to gerrymander the existent territory lines.

“I deliberation it’s just to accidental that committee and court-drawn maps tin inject immoderate competitiveness into the process,” Kondik said.

Because the seats were drawn by a commission, California has a batch of competitory seats. This helps California Republicans contempt the state’s Democratic tilt.

According to the 2024 pre-election ratings by Sabato’s Crystal Ball, California had 3 Democratic-held seats successful the “lean Democratic” category, and 2 much that were rated “likely Democratic”.

So, going into the election, 5 of California’s 40 Democratic-held seats are astatine slightest somewhat susceptible to a Republican takeover. Texas Democrats aren’t truthful lucky, nether its existing map: They are capable to realistically people lone 1 “likely Republican” spot retired of 25 held by the GOP.

Sometimes, geography is the force of a “fair” map

Despite representation makers’ efforts, it is sometimes intolerable to nutrient a representation that jibes perfectly with a state’s wide partisan balance. The acold facts of geography tin forestall this.

One oft-cited illustration is Massachusetts, which hasn’t elected a Republican to the US House since 1994. There are fewer Republican hotbeds successful Massachusetts, and experts accidental they can’t beryllium easy connected into coherent legislature districts.

“Especially successful deep-red oregon deep-blue states, parties thin to get a higher stock of seats than they bash of votes,” Rakich said. “Imagine a authorities wherever Republicans get two-thirds of the ballot successful each district; obviously, they would get 100 percent of their seats.”

Rakich said Democrats are geographically distributed much favourably successful California. But successful different states, Republicans payment from amended geographic distribution.

“I haven’t heard Vance kick astir the information that Democrats lone get 25 percent of Wisconsin’s legislature seats contempt regularly getting 50 percent of the ballot there,” Rakich added.