Is Chicago the violent crime capital of the US? What the facts say

President Donald Trump and his Republican allies person painted Chicago arsenic the astir unsafe metropolis successful the United States earlier expected migration enforcement raids and arsenic Trump has floated the thought of sending successful the National Guard.

Trump called Chicago the “murder superior of the world!” successful a Truth Social station connected Tuesday.

Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem focused connected earthy homicide numbers connected CBS’s Face the Nation amusement connected August 31, saying, “For 13 consecutive years, Chicago had much murders than immoderate different American city.”

James Lankford, a Republican legislator from Oklahoma, utilized a akin statistic connected NBC’s Meet the Press but swapped earthy numbers for “murder rate”, making it inaccurate.

Meanwhile, Chicago’s Democratic defenders said Republicans overlook transgression successful reddish states.

Illinois Governor JB Pritzker, a Democrat and imaginable 2028 statesmanlike candidate, said his authorities fared amended than galore others connected convulsive crime. “Notice [Trump] ne'er talks astir wherever the astir convulsive transgression is occurring, which is successful reddish states,” Pritzker said connected August 31 connected Face the Nation.

“Illinois is not adjacent successful the bottommost fractional of states successful presumption of convulsive crime. But bash you perceive [Trump] talking astir Florida, wherever helium is present from? No, you don’t perceive him talking astir that oregon Texas. Their convulsive transgression rates are overmuch worse [than] successful different places.”

It’s not antithetic for politicians to take numbers that favour their governmental message, but astatine a clip erstwhile some sides are making seemingly opposing claims astir Chicago’s transgression statistics, what’s the truth?

Here are the facts to assistance you chopped done the spin

Homicide complaint vs earthy numbers effect successful antithetic metrics 

A azygous connection – complaint – makes a large quality successful presumption of accuracy erstwhile discussing Chicago oregon immoderate city’s crime.

It is close to accidental Chicago has led the country’s astir populous cities for sheer numbers of homicides for 13 years. Homicide refers to a idiosyncratic sidesplitting different person, including lawfully.

Chicago has reported the astir homicides of each US cities each twelvemonth since 2012, according to FBI information crunched by Jeff Asher, a transgression information expert for AH Datalytics. The past metropolis to person a higher homicide number than Chicago was New York City successful 2011, said John Roman, manager of the University of Chicago’s Center connected Public Safety and Justice.

But it is inaccurate that Chicago is the country’s person according to the homicide rate, the measurement that is preferred by galore criminologists due to the fact that it adjusts the number for colonisation size, usually homicides per 100,000 people.

Chicago had 573 homicides successful 2024, preliminary constabulary information show. It besides has astir 2.7 cardinal residents successful the metropolis itself, excluding its suburbs, making it the 3rd astir populous metropolis successful the US aft New York and Los Angeles.

Chicago’s homicide complaint is not the highest successful the US oregon the world.

Other cities, including small cities successful reddish states not successful the nationalist governmental spotlight, person convulsive transgression problems too.

The Trace, a quality website astir guns, found that “half of each shootings betwixt 2014 and 2023 occurred extracurricular ample cities, successful tiny cities and towns of less than 1 cardinal people.” The Trace utilized information from the Gun Violence Archive, which tracks weapon injuries and deaths.

The Igarape Institute, a Brazilian nonprofit organisation, monitors homicide rates successful the US and astir the world. In its astir caller information from 2023, much than 100 cities astir the satellite had higher homicide rates than Chicago, including Memphis, Tennessee; New Orleans, Louisiana; St Louis, Missouri; Baltimore, Maryland; Cleveland, Ohio; Detroit, Michigan; and Washington, DC.

The information showed that cities including Duran and Manta successful Ecuador; Nelson Mandela Bay successful South Africa; Camacari successful Brazil; and Cajeme and Tijuana successful Mexico topped the list.

Although the fig of murders successful Chicago has been dropping since 2022, the metropolis inactive has a violent transgression problem. The Trump White House sent america astir 2 twelve section quality reports astir Chicago carjackings, murders and burglaries.

Pritzker misleads successful Illinois-Florida comparison

Democratic governors, including Pritzker and his California counterpart Gavin Newsom, person tried to crook the absorption distant from their large cities and towards their states’ wide transgression rates. Through this wide lens, which includes agrarian areas and each convulsive crimes, the location turf appears safer.

“Low-crime agrarian areas whitethorn ‘water down’ the effects of high-crime municipality locales specified that the wide authorities complaint is debased contempt important variation,” said Jacinta M Gau, a University of Central Florida transgression justness professor.

Pritzker referred to a US News and World Report ranking of the 50 states for convulsive transgression rates based connected 2023 FBI data. From the lowest convulsive transgression rates to the highest, Florida ranked 22nd, Illinois was 23rd and Texas was 34th.

So Pritzker’s connection was technically close due to the fact that Illinois was not successful the bottommost fractional of states though Florida came successful marginally amended than Illinois.

Academics who survey transgression information warned of pitfalls. Victims underreport transgression to police, and constabulary agencies’ decisions astir classifying crimes and whether to taxable yearly reports to the FBI tin impact a state’s report.

“The unreliability of transgression information makes it casual for the numbers to beryllium tally truthful that the effect supports the communicative that is being pushed,” Gau said.

Illinois has had decades-long issues with reporting close information to the FBI, Asher said. He said Illinois’s convulsive transgression number does not afloat study Chicago’s aggravated assaults. Florida, helium added, has its ain information reporting issues.

There are besides complications to retrieve erstwhile comparing transgression rates crossed cities oregon states.

One crushed not to marque metropolis comparisons is that metropolis boundaries are arbitrary.

“Some cities [like St Louis] incorporated lone those parts of the metro [area] that are densest, which has the applicable effect of including areas with precocious unit but excluding wealthier areas,” which are successful St Louis County and St Charles County, Roman said. In different cities, those wealthier areas are wrong the metropolis boundaries.

Comparing states avoids the metropolis bound issue. Plus, astir transgression justness instrumentality is acceptable astatine the authorities level.

Still, the challenges of transgression information mean that politicians tin selectively usage oregon criticise the information to people governmental points.

“Unfortunately, this is often not wide to the mean person, and truthful it tin beryllium highly confusing and mightiness look similar 1 person is close and the different is incorrect adjacent erstwhile a discrepancy is much apples vs oranges than close vs wrong,” Gau said.

PolitiFact researcher Caryn Baird contributed to this article.