Is ISIL a growing threat in the DR Congo and East Africa?

In the aboriginal hours of Sunday, July 27, equipped fighters attacked a Catholic religion successful the Komanda portion of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), wherever astir a 100 radical had gathered for a nighttime vigil. Dozens of radical were killed and others taken captive successful the assault, which drew outrage and condemnation from the United Nations and the Vatican.

Women, men and astatine slightest 9 children were reported to beryllium among the victims of the Saint Anuarite religion attack, according to Congolese officials, portion respective children aged betwixt 12 and 14 were kidnapped. Houses and shops adjacent the religion were besides attacked and burned, with authorities uncovering much bodies there. At slightest 43 radical were killed overall.

The Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) – an equipped radical operating successful the borderline regions linking the DRC to neighbouring Uganda, and which has pledged allegiance to ISIL (ISIS) – has since claimed the onslaught successful a Telegram post.

It is 1 of respective caller attacks from a radical that experts accidental is staging a large resurgence successful a state already fragile from equipped fighting.

It besides comes soon aft the DRC authorities signed cardinal bid roadmap agreements with some Rwanda and the M23 rebel radical that has been advancing successful the country’s east, raising questions astir the timing and information down the violence.

“These targeted attacks against defenceless civilians, peculiarly successful places of worship, are not lone appalling, but besides successful usurpation of each quality rights standards and planetary humanitarian law,” Vivian van de Perre, acting caput of MONUSCO, the UN peacekeeping ngo successful the DRC, said successful a connection pursuing Sunday’s assault.

Pope Leo, too, expressed sorrow a time aft the onslaught connected the parish, which had been celebrating its 25th anniversary. “His Holiness implores God that the humor of these martyrs whitethorn beryllium a effect of peace, reconciliation, brotherhood and emotion for each the Congolese people,” wrote Cardinal Pietro Parolin, caput of authorities of the Holy See, successful a telegram to DRC’s Archbishop Fulgence Muteba Mugalu.

A wide presumption of a burned location successful Rwangoma, Beni, DRC, aft a deadly onslaught overnight by suspected members of the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) [File: Sebastien Kitsa Musayi/AFP]

Making of the ADF

Sunday’s onslaught represents conscionable 1 of respective deadly ADF assaults successful the DRC’s eastbound successful caller months.

The ADF, besides referred to by immoderate experts and institutions arsenic ISIS-Central Africa (IS-CA), primitively began arsenic a rebel radical successful Uganda successful 1994, wherever it accused the authorities successful Kampala of persecuting Muslims.

In 2002, the ADF crossed the borderline into eastbound DRC aft offensives by the Ugandan service saw it suffer its footing. The radical attacked civilians successful some countries from its basal successful the North Kivu and Ituri provinces, with researchers noting that its tactics became much convulsive implicit the years.

Jamil Mukulu, the group’s founder, was arrested successful Tanzania successful 2015, starring to interior disruption. Under a caller leader, 48-year-old Musa Seka Baluku, the ADF declared allegiance to the planetary equipped network, ISIL, successful 2019.

Although ISIL nary longer has the quality to clasp crushed oregon power a caliphate successful the Middle East, experts accidental it has devolved its structure, focusing connected determination affiliates, peculiarly successful parts of Africa. A UN Experts Group study recovered that ISIL cardinal financially supports the ADF, whose unit of astir 1,000 to 1,500 members is usually equipped with tiny arms, mortars, improvised explosive devices (IEDs), and rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs). The ADF reportedly controls camps with interior information services, clinics, prisons and schools for children.

“The radical intends to beforehand utmost Islamic ideology,” Nico Minde, an expert with the Institute for Security Studies, told Al Jazeera. “It is [also] believed that it is seeking revenge for subject offensives by the Congolese army, Ugandan forces and MONUSCO peacekeepers,” helium said.

It is unclear however galore civilians person died successful ADF attacks, but experts hold it apt runs into the hundreds, if not thousands, successful its astir 30 years of existence. The United States, which designated ADF/IS-CA a “terror” organisation successful 2021, describes it arsenic “one of the astir lethal violent groups successful Africa” based connected the fig of civilian deaths linked to its members.

An earlier reprisal battle by the ADF betwixt July 8 and 9 saw 41 civilians killed successful Irumu territory, Ituri, according to MONUSCO. In May, it was North Kivu’s Babili assemblage that was attacked, with 18 civilians killed. The radical besides claimed a abstracted onslaught successful January connected the municipality of Lubero successful North Kivu, with 41 radical killed and 11 kidnapped.

Multiple equipped groups successful the eastbound DRC

The ADF is 1 of a multitude of equipped groups – immoderate experts accidental astir 100 – operating successful the mineral-rich but poorly governed eastbound DRC. The portion is 1 of the astir analyzable struggle zones successful the world.

ADF’s attacks successful July came arsenic the DRC was enjoying immoderate alleviation from the M23 rebels, arguably the strongest of each the equipped groups. M23, the UN says, is backed by Rwanda. Aiming to instrumentality powerfulness successful Kinshasa, it launched lightning offensives successful January and seized immense swaths of territory successful the eastbound provinces of North and South Kivu. Thousands died and hundreds of thousands were displaced successful the six-month war. In July, the US and Qatar brokered DRC bid efforts with Rwanda and M23, respectively, leading to a ceasefire.

Minde of the ISS said the ADF is apt taking vantage of the subject resources diverted to face M23, resulting successful much predominant attacks since January.

“Strategically, this allows them to freely determination successful Ituri and North Kivu portion attraction remains fixed connected the M23 conflict,” helium said. The group’s absorption connected agrarian communities, Minde added, was to foster fearfulness and dependence, facilitate power implicit onshore and illicit resources, and to find much recruits.

Combined, M23 and the ADF person wrought the astir havoc successful eastbound DRC, with immoderate probe suggesting that determination mightiness person been a non-aggression pact betwixt the 2 astatine immoderate point. The Armed Conflict and Location Event Data Project (ACLED) noted successful a June study that M23 and ADF/IS-CA enactment betwixt January and March 2025 killed 1,600 people, making that 4th the deadliest since 2002, erstwhile the DRC was successful the throes of a civilian war.

M23 rebels defender a portion of surrendering Congolese subject soldiers who were to beryllium recruited into the rebel radical successful Bukavu successful February [File: Hugh Kinsella Cunningham/Getty]

Uganda’s stakes successful the ADF battle

Uganda poses the main situation to the ADF. Some 2,000-4,000 Ugandan soldiers person deployed successful the DRC since November 2021, wherever they pb Operation Shujaa, which besides involves the Congolese service and MONUSCO forces. Kampala’s determination to deploy followed a bid of weaponry attacks successful Uganda that year. Since 2021, 2 leaders of abstracted ADF factions – Salim Mohammed and Benjamin Kisokeranio – person been captured.

However, determination are concerns that Uganda is expanding into territory not affected by ADF attacks. Due to the DRC’s civilian warfare history, which saw countries neighbouring Rwanda and Uganda instrumentality implicit Congolese territory and reportedly bargain minerals, overseas armies connected DRC ungraded stay a testy taxable successful Kinshasa.

In June, the Ugandan service spokesperson, Felix Kulayigye, defended his government’s stance portion speaking to Al Jazeera, admitting that the state needed to support commercialized interests successful the DRC. Uganda exports goods similar thenar oil, cement, and refined petroleum to the DRC, and is Kinshasa’s biggest trading spouse successful the sub-region.

“Who is consuming Uganda’s products?” Kulayigye asked Al Jazeera astatine the time. “Can commerce instrumentality spot wherever determination is instability? If we person commercialized interests successful eastbound DRC, are those protectable oregon not?”

Already, Uganda has a antagonistic estimation successful the DRC. Kampala allegedly backed the M23 equipped radical by allowing the radical transition into Congolese territory, according to a UN adept radical report. President Yoweri Museveni and Rwanda’s Paul Kagame are longtime allies. Back successful 2022, the Ugandan service main General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, who is besides President Museveni’s son, openly expressed enactment for M23 connected the societal media site, X.

The ADF’s expanding attacks could pb to rising insecurity successful the fragile DRC, and crossed the sub-region, Minde of ISS said.

“[ADF] mightiness privation to instrumentality vantage of the pacifist infinitesimal pursuing the US and Qatar-brokered bid deal, to punctual the satellite of its existence,” helium added.