Is Russia’s Putin gambling with the safety of Ukraine’s nuclear stations?

Kyiv, Ukraine – On October 2, Russian President Vladimir Putin alleged that Ukrainian attacks had destroyed a high-voltage transmission enactment betwixt the Moscow-occupied Zaporizhzhia atomic powerfulness plant successful southeastern Ukraine and Kyiv-controlled areas.

Days earlier, Ukraine’s leader, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, said Russian shelling had chopped the works disconnected from the energy network.

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The mammoth, six-reactor works – Europe’s largest and known successful Ukraine arsenic the ZAES – sits little than 10km (6.2 miles) southbound of the beforehand line. It has been unopen since 2022, generating nary of the energy that erstwhile provided up to a 5th of Ukraine’s needs.

But dozens of Moscow-deployed engineers person frantically tried to restart it – truthful acold unsuccessfully. Ukraine has long feared that Russia is trying to link the powerfulness grid and quench a thirst for vigor successful Crimea and different occupied areas.

Putin purported that the alleged Ukrainian strikes caused a blackout astatine the works and that it had to beryllium fuelled by diesel generators.

The latest blackout astatine the works is the longest wartime outage of power.

“On the [Ukrainian] side, radical should recognize that if they play truthful dangerously, they person an operating atomic powerfulness presumption connected their side,” Putin told a forum successful St Petersburg.

‘The radioactivity is truthful powerful’

In fact, isolated from the Zaporizhzhia atomic plant, Ukraine has 3 operating powerfulness stations – arsenic good arsenic the shutdown Chornobyl facility, the tract of 1 of the world’s worst atomic disasters.

“And what prevents america from mirroring [Ukraine’s alleged actions] successful response? Let them deliberation astir it,” Putin said.

His menace had seemingly already been fulfilled a time earlier. Ukraine accused Russia of shelling that damaged the powerfulness proviso to the colossal protective “sarcophagus” implicit the Chornobyl station’s Reactor Four that exploded successful 1986.

In 2006, a French radical of musicians performed successful beforehand of the shut-down 4th reactor of the Chornobyl atomic powerfulness station. The Number Four atomic reactor blew up successful 1986. The reactor, successful what was past the Soviet republic of Ukraine, spewed a immense unreality of radioactive particulate implicit overmuch of Europe successful what was the worst atomic mishap the satellite has ever seen [File: Reuters]

Both the Chornobyl presumption and the works successful Zaporizhzhia request energy for their information systems and, astir importantly, for the uninterrupted circulation of h2o that cools atomic fuel.

The fuel, thousands of uranium rods that support emitting heat, are excessively radioactive to beryllium taken anyplace else.

In Chornobyl, the substance is spent and submerged successful cooling ponds oregon “dry-stored” successful ventilated, secured facilities.

But astatine the Zaporizhzhia site, the rods are inactive wrong the reactors – and are newer, hotter, and made successful the United States.

Before the war, Ukraine began a power from the hexagonal, bee-cell-like rods made by Rosatom, Russia’s atomic monopoly, to the quadrate rods made by Westinghouse, an vigor elephantine based successful Pittsburgh successful the US.

The US-made rods volition instrumentality years to chill down capable to beryllium removed without the hazard of contamination, according to a erstwhile Zaporizhzhia works technologist who fled to Kyiv.

“The radioactivity is truthful almighty that 1 can’t get the substance out, [or] transport oregon grip successful different ways until it burns out. It volition instrumentality years,” the technologist told Al Jazeera connected information of anonymity due to the fact that of information concerns for relatives successful Enerhodar.

Ukrainian forces ‘prevent’ Russia’s alleged plans

A greater situation astatine the works is simply a terrible deficiency of reactor-cooling water. The Zaporizhzhia presumption stood little than 15km (9 miles) upstream from the mammoth, Soviet-designed Novo-Kakhovka dam connected the Dnieper River.

The dam created a reservoir with up to 18 cubic kilometres (4.76 trillion gallons) of h2o that freely flowed to the powerfulness station. In June 2023, the dam was destroyed by almighty blasts – Ukraine and Russian traded blame – and the h2o level dropped dramatically.

The heavy cooling ponds astir the works that ne'er froze, adjacent successful the harshest winters, had been filled to the brim, but the h2o keeps evaporating. There is capable to chill the shutdown reactors – but not astir capable if the presumption is restarted and the uranium rods crook the h2o into steam to powerfulness the turbines.

“It’s perfectly intolerable to power connected adjacent 1 bloc,” the technologist said. “Of course, the Russians support digging and proviso immoderate water, but it’s not capable astatine all.”

The biggest occupation is Russia’s nonaccomplishment to hook the works to the vigor grid of occupied regions arsenic Ukrainian forces pin-pointedly destruct the transmission lines Russia is gathering – on with substance depots and thermal powerfulness stations, helium said.

“The Russians are restoring them immoderate mode they can, but Ukrainian forces precise overmuch forestall the restoration,” the technologist quipped.

Bellona, a Norway-based atomic monitor, said connected October 2 that a “greater information lies successful Moscow’s imaginable usage of the situation to warrant reconnecting the works to its ain grid – portraying itself arsenic the saviour preventing a atomic disaster”.

Should Moscow bash that, the measurement would lone “worsen [the] strategical situation, springiness Moscow further leverage, and bring a imaginable restart person – a determination that, amid ongoing fighting, would itself sharply summation the hazard of a atomic accident,” it said.

A Russian work subordinate stands defender astatine a checkpoint adjacent the Zaporizhzhia atomic powerfulness works successful the Zaporizhia portion of Russian-controlled Ukraine, June 15, 2023 [Alexander Ermochenko/Reuters]

Analysts pointed to a woody projected by US President Donald Trump successful March to transportation the works to US absorption arsenic a imaginable solution.

Ukrainian strikes “will spell connected until Russia makes a bid woody that besides includes US power implicit the ZAES and its operation”, Nikolay Mitrokhin, a researcher with Germany’s University of Bremen, told Al Jazeera.

Meanwhile, successful caller weeks, blackouts successful Crimea person go unpredictable and distressing, a Crimea section told Al Jazeera.

“They power the powerfulness disconnected and power it backmost connected without immoderate warning. Then again – connected and off, connected and off. My fridge died,” said a nonmigratory of Simferopol, Crimea’s administrative capital, connected information of anonymity retired of fearfulness for his safety.

Russia understands that improved powerfulness proviso is simply a prerequisite for its efforts to reconstruct occupied Ukrainian regions and conquer much Ukrainian land, said an observer.

Moscow needs the works to “cover the increasing [energy] depletion successful the region, considering not conscionable occupied Crimea, but besides the occupied areas [above the Sea of] Azov. And besides wrong the discourse of Russia’s program to inhabit portion of the Zaporizhia region,” Kyiv-based expert Aleksey Kushch told Al Jazeera.

Greenpeace said that its elaborate investigation of high-resolution outer images taken aft what Putin alleged were Ukrainian strikes showed that helium was bluffing.

“There is nary grounds of immoderate subject strikes successful the country surrounding the pylons and web of powerfulness lines successful this portion of Zaporizhzhia atomic powerfulness plant,” the planetary environmentalist radical said connected October 1.

The images showed that the powerfulness towers remained successful presumption and determination were nary craters near by explosions astir the lines, it said.

Greenpeace concluded that the blackout astatine the works is “a deliberate enactment of sabotage by Russia” whose purpose is to “permanently disconnect the works from the Ukraine grid and link the atomic works to the grid occupied by Russia”.