Is the UK playing a double game in Sudan and Somalia?

In December, arsenic it often has during the ongoing warfare betwixt the Sudanese service and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), the British authorities urged accountability, expressing concerns astir the mass-scale decease and devastation that civilians person suffered.

But reporting has shown that, down the scenes, the United Kingdom rejected much ambitious plans to forestall atrocities arsenic unit escalated.

Further east, the UK has officially backed the territorial integrity of Somalia – portion holding a involvement successful a strategical larboard successful the breakaway portion of Somaliland that it does not recognise.

These decisions and moves by the UK, accidental analysts, rise doubts astir whether its words are successful keeping with its actions successful the Horn of Africa.

Amgad Fareid Eltayeb, a Sudanese argumentation analyst, said the UK’s credibility is progressively judged by the risks it is willing, oregon unwilling, to take.

“When radical judge your words and your actions diverge, they halt treating you arsenic a broker and commencement treating you arsenic an involvement manager,” helium told Al Jazeera.

‘Enabler of aggression’ successful Sudan

That judgement, analysts argue, present colours however the UK’s actions elsewhere successful the portion are being read.

In Sudan, earlier reports amusement however the UK authorities opted for what interior documents picture arsenic the “least ambitious” attack to extremity the bloodshed, adjacent arsenic mass killings by the RSF mounted successful Darfur, including astir el-Fasher.

Eltayeb argues that this has led the UK to beryllium viewed not arsenic a marginal oregon distracted actor, but arsenic a cardinal 1 whose diplomatic posture has helped signifier however the warfare is framed internationally.

He referred to reports that the United Arab Emirates has equipped oregon supported RSF – allegations documented by UN experts and planetary media and denied by Abu Dhabi – and said the UK had emerged arsenic “an enabler of the Emirati aggression successful Sudan”. The aim: To “whitewash RSF atrocities successful the diplomatic framing of the war”.

Asked astir its attack to Sudan, the UK Foreign Office told Al Jazeera: “The situation successful Sudan is the worst we person seen successful decades – the UK authorities is moving with allies and partners to extremity the unit and forestall further atrocities from occurring.

“We request some the parties to enactment a ceasefire; this means unrestricted humanitarian entree and a bid process with modulation to a civilian government.”

Recognise Somalia, bash concern with Somaliland

The Foreign Office did not respond to questions astir the UK’s relation successful Somalia oregon its commercialized engagement successful Somaliland, wherever scrutiny has progressively centred connected the larboard of Berbera.

The British authorities co-owns the larboard done its improvement concern arm, British International Investment (BII). The larboard is jointly owned by the UAE-based logistics steadfast DP World and the authorities of Somaliland – adjacent though the UK does not officially recognise that government. The UAE, too, formally does not recognise Somaliland.

Berbera sits adjacent 1 of the world’s astir important maritime corridors linking the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean. An interaction appraisal commissioned by the UK Foreign Office described it arsenic “a strategical gateway” to Somaliland and a imaginable alternate commercialized corridor for Ethiopia, connection that places it firmly wrong the region’s geopolitical architecture.

The port’s strategical worth is not new. Matthew Sterling Benson, a societal and economical historiographer of Africa astatine the London School of Economics (LSE), noted that Berbera has repeatedly been treated by outer powers arsenic strategical infrastructure first, and a governmental assemblage second. It has served astatine antithetic points arsenic a British coaling station, a Soviet naval basal during the Cold War, and present a commercialized logistics hub shaped by Gulf and Western interests.

The Sudan-Somaliland link

That wider architecture has go much politically charged arsenic Sudan’s warfare has spilled crossed borders.

Observers person suggested that Berbera is portion of a broader Emirati logistics web that United Nations experts and planetary media person linked to alleged proviso routes utilized to limb the RSF. The UAE has consistently denied these allegations.

For critics, the UK’s commercialized entanglement with that alleged web raises uncomfortable questions. While London publically calls for accountability successful Sudan, it remains financially tied, via the BII, to a larboard operated by the UAE, a adjacent determination spouse accused of backing 1 broadside successful the warfare adjacent door.

Abdalftah Hamed Ali, an autarkic Horn of Africa analyst, said this highlights what galore critics spot arsenic “a spread betwixt rule and practice”.

“Even if London disputes those linkages,” helium said, “the cognition occupation remains.”

The sensitivity has deepened arsenic Somaliland’s governmental presumption has returned to the diplomatic spotlight. Last month, Israel became the lone state to formally recognise Somaliland’s independence, a determination condemned by Mogadishu and rejected by the wider planetary community.

For analysts, these developments underscore wherefore claims that economical engagement tin beryllium kept abstracted from authorities are progressively hard to sustain.

Ali said Berbera cannot beryllium treated arsenic a neutral commercialized asset.

“Ports successful the portion are not conscionable economical assets; they are nodes successful a information and power ecosystem,” helium said. “When concern touches ports, escaped zones, and semipermanent commercialized access, it becomes politically legible. People construe it arsenic strengthening 1 authority’s bargaining position, whether that is the volition oregon not.”

In Somaliland’s case, that governmental legibility cuts respective ways: Reinforcing its de facto autonomy, reshaping determination alliances, and entangling outer actors, the UK included, successful a quality London – officially – says should beryllium resolved done dialog alternatively than outer alignment.

Ali described the UK’s attack arsenic a “dual-track” policy.

“Britain maintains its ceremonial diplomatic enactment with the recognised Somali state, but it besides works with Somaliland arsenic a de facto authorization due to the fact that it is unchangeable and functions and controls territory,” helium said.

LSE’s Benson explained that aft declaring independency successful 1991, Somaliland was excluded from planetary designation and large-scale overseas aid. Early governments were forced to trust connected locally raised revenue, peculiarly taxation linked to Berbera port, a dependence that gave home actors leverage to request practice and accountability.

In 1992, erstwhile a transitional authorities attempted to prehend power of Berbera by force, section clan authorities resisted. The standoff ended successful compromise, helping to entrench Somaliland’s power-sharing system.

Benson, who besides serves arsenic Sudan’s Research Director astatine LSE, described this dynamic arsenic a “revenue complex”, successful which fiscal power and governmental legitimacy are tightly intertwined.

Large outer infrastructure investments, helium warned, hazard undermining that bargain.

“When states tin concern themselves done deals with outer investors alternatively than negotiations with section constituencies, the fiscal declaration changes,” Benson said.

Such projects, helium added, reconfigure who controls gross flows, who benefits from the larboard economy, and who gains governmental leverage. In territories with unresolved governmental status, infrastructure concern tin alteration what helium described arsenic “governance done commercialized presence” – allowing outer actors to extract strategical worth portion avoiding explicit governmental responsibility.

Ambiguity by choice

The UK’s position, Benson argued, exemplifies this ambiguity.

British ceremonial enactment for Somalia’s territorial integrity, paired with deepening commercialized and information engagement with Somaliland, helium said, gives it larboard access, counterterrorism practice and commercialized returns, portion avoiding the governmental costs of a wide position.

Over time, this tin undermine organization consolidation connected some sides: Allowing Mogadishu to debar meaningful negotiations implicit Somaliland’s status, portion weakening Somaliland’s home accountability mechanisms by bypassing section governmental bargaining.

The UK’s posture successful Somaliland has drawn scrutiny before. In 2023, Declassified UK reported that the British authorities suppressed the merchandise of a study into the sidesplitting of civilians during clashes successful Somaliland, a determination critics past said prioritised governmental relationships implicit transparency and accountability. British officials said astatine the clip that decisions astir the study were taken successful enactment with diplomatic and information considerations.

Read together, analysts accidental the UK’s decisions successful Sudan and Somalia bespeak a azygous attack applied successful antithetic contexts: Preserving entree and partnerships portion avoiding moves – diplomatic pressure, nationalist confrontation oregon argumentation shifts – that would constrictive its country for manoeuvre.

Ali argued that portion this attack whitethorn unafraid short-term influence, it carries longer-term costs, peculiarly successful a portion arsenic politically entangled arsenic the Horn of Africa.

“In the Horn, wherever alliances overlap with determination rivalries and the struggle economy, mixed signals tin rapidly go a liability,” helium said. “You suffer the motivation authorization to property for governmental compromise if section actors deliberation your incentives prevarication elsewhere.”