Is the US making a great gamble to reshape Iraq?

United States President Donald Trump’s 2nd medication has introduced a bold and unconventional strategy for the Middle East. The medication intends to recalibrate US power successful a portion historically scarred by conflict, prioritising determination stableness done economical spot and subject consolidation by asserting a stronger, business-minded US presence.

At the centre of Trump’s ambitious extremity is what the caller US envoy to Iraq, Mark Savaya, described arsenic his extremity to “make Iraq large again”. This attack moves distant from accepted endless warfare tactics towards a transactional, results-oriented diplomacy that aims to reconstruct Iraqi sovereignty and economical vitality. It could beryllium the “great gamble” for Trump, who seeks an Iraq that serves arsenic a stable, sovereign determination hub alternatively than a battleground for overseas interests.

Trump’s superior plans and wishes for Iraq impact a twofold mission: consolidating each equipped forces nether the bid of the morganatic authorities and drastically reducing the power of malign overseas players, astir notably Iran. The medication seeks to unfastened Iraqi markets to planetary investment, upgrade the country’s infrastructure, and unafraid the independency of its vigor sector. Hence, the program is to crushed a genuine concern that respects Iraq’s unity portion ensuring that it is nary longer a cardinal node for militia enactment oregon outer interference.

Militias and governmental gridlock

This assertive US strategy lands straight successful a highly contested and fractured governmental situation successful Iraq, which is little a azygous authorities than a patchwork of competing powers. The bosom of the occupation lies not conscionable successful parliament, but besides successful the persistent shadiness power of equipped factions and militias that often run extracurricular the ceremonial concatenation of authorities command. Those groups were among the biggest winners successful the November 2025 elections.

Now the ongoing authorities negotiations person thrown a stark airy connected these non-state actors.

Their powerfulness raises important concerns for the future: How tin Iraq enforce the instrumentality and, crucially, pull the overseas concern needed for revival if equipped groups situation authorities authority? The consolidation of the country’s equipped forces nether implicit authorities power is an urgent necessity, underscored by rising determination tensions and information threats.

Moreover, the way to achieving genuine stableness is severely obstructed by entrenched governmental interests.

For Iraq to execute stability, it indispensable urgently fortify its organization frameworks and intelligibly found a separation of powers. Yet, galore governmental parties look much focused connected maintaining power implicit lucrative authorities resources than connected implementing the meaningful reforms the state desperately needs. The effect is simply a governance exemplary struggling to basal steadfast amid the crosscurrents of competing loyalties and powerfulness grabs.

Washington’s play

To execute these high-stakes goals, Trump has bypassed accepted diplomatic channels by appointing Mark Savaya arsenic the US peculiar envoy to Iraq connected October 19. Such an assignment signals a displacement towards “deal-making” diplomacy. Savaya’s ngo is to navigate the analyzable governmental turmoil pursuing Iraq’s parliamentary elections to steer the state towards a unchangeable transition. His occupation is to span the spread betwixt organization enactment and monolithic fiscal investment, acting arsenic a nonstop typical of Trump’s business-centric overseas policy.

Savaya is an Iraqi-born, Detroit-based businessman lacking the accepted diplomatic background; his acquisition is rooted successful the backstage assemblage successful the cannabis industry, but helium gained governmental prominence arsenic an progressive protagonist of Trump’s run successful Michigan.

He played a cardinal relation successful the delicate negotiations that secured the merchandise of Elizabeth Tsurkov, the Israeli-Russian world and Princeton University pupil who had been kidnapped by an Iraqi militia for much than 2 years.

Savaya’s communal and taste ties person fixed him important entree to Iraqi powerfulness centres that accepted diplomats often lack.

The Iran factor

Iraq’s presumption successful a geopolitical tug-of-war is compounding the interior struggles, forced to equilibrium its captious relationships with 2 giants: the US and Iran. On the 1 hand, Washington’s nonsubjective is clear: it wants to bolster Iraq’s sovereignty portion simultaneously pushing backmost against the dominance of powerful, often Iran-backed, militias. The US believes that allowing these equipped groups excessively overmuch sway could permission the federation isolated and wreck its fragile economical stability.

But Iranian power remains a formidable and enduring force. Tehran views Iraq not conscionable arsenic a neighbour but besides arsenic a important strategical state for projecting its powerfulness crossed the full region. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has been actively moving to support unity among cardinal Shia factions successful Baghdad. This determination intelligibly signals Iran’s heavy and enduring involvement successful shaping Iraq’s governmental alignment and its aboriginal path. Iraq indispensable truthful navigate this high-stakes balancing enactment to survive.

Savaya’s ngo unfolds astatine a clip erstwhile Iran’s determination “axis of resistance” is nether unprecedented pressure. Having already mislaid their superior foothold successful Syria aft the autumn of the Assad authorities successful precocious 2024, and seeing Hezbollah’s governmental and subject lasting successful Lebanon severely decimated by the 2025 struggle with Israel, Iranian proxies present look the precise existent imaginable of losing their grip connected Iraq too.

In Lebanon, a caller authorities is committed to regaining the state’s monopoly connected the usage of force, leaving Hezbollah progressively isolated. This determination retreat means that for Tehran, maintaining power successful Baghdad is simply a final, hopeless basal to stay a applicable determination power.

Other determination actors

The occurrence of Trump’s gamble besides depends connected the roles of different determination players. Turkiye has precocious recalibrated its strategy to integrate Iraq into advertisement hoc determination commercialized and information frameworks, efficaciously diluting Iran’s centrality. Simultaneously, Gulf monarchies specified arsenic Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are emerging arsenic cardinal economical and information partners for Baghdad, offering an alternate to reliance connected Iran.

However, these determination actors besides bring their ain agendas — specified arsenic Turkiye’s absorption connected containing Kurdish movements — which whitethorn struggle with US objectives. If Savaya tin successfully align these divers determination interests with Trump’s plan, helium whitethorn fundamentally rewrite Iraq’s turbulent future.

A realist pragmatism

The “Make Iraq Great Again” strategy reflects a pragmatic reassertion of US interests wrong the anarchic planetary system, prioritising Washington’s information and economical powerfulness implicit idealistic goals.

By appointing Savaya — an unconventional, business-oriented envoy — the Trump medication is employing “transactional realism”, utilising economical diplomacy and idiosyncratic ties arsenic strategical tools to propulsion Iraq distant from Iran’s orbit. This attack views the US-Iran rivalry arsenic a zero-sum crippled of powerfulness politics, wherever integrating Iraq’s equipped forces nether centralised authorities power is cardinal to restoring a state-centric bid and sidelining non-state militias that presently provender Tehran’s determination influence.

The caller US envoy to Iraq has made wide that “there is nary spot for equipped groups successful a afloat sovereign Iraq”. His calls resonated with Iraqi officials and militia leaders alike – present astatine slightest 3 militias adjacent to Iran person publically agreed to disarm. However, different groups person yet to bash the same, portion rejecting the telephone from the outset.

However, this high-stakes effort to displacement the determination equilibrium of powerfulness faces a important “security dilemma”, arsenic assertive moves to diminish Iranian power whitethorn trigger a convulsive antiaircraft effect from Tehran to support its remaining strategical assets. While the strategy seeks to exploit a determination displacement – leveraging the weakened authorities of Iranian proxies successful Syria and Lebanon – it indispensable contend with the “hybrid” powerfulness of Iraqi militias and the constrictive self-interests of neighbouring players similar Turkiye and the Gulf states.

The occurrence of this gamble depends connected whether the US tin dismantle the shadiness economies that facilitate overseas interference and found a stable, autonomous Iraqi authorities susceptible of navigating the aggravated geopolitical tug-of-war betwixt Washington and Tehran.

The stakes for Iraq’s future

Ultimately, the assignment of Savaya serves arsenic the definitive accent trial for Iraqi sovereignty, marking a high-stakes modulation towards a transactional “America First” strategy aimed astatine “Making Iraq Great Again”. By attempting to consolidate subject bid nether the authorities and dismantle the shadiness economies fuelling Iranian influence, Savaya’s ngo seeks to exploit the existent determination weakening of Tehran’s proxies to alteration Iraq into a stable, autonomous hub.

However, the occurrence of this “Great Gamble” hinges connected Savaya’s quality to flooded entrenched governmental absorption and reconcile the beingness of US forces with the request for nationalist unity. If this unconventional diplomatic propulsion tin span interior divides — peculiarly betwixt Baghdad and the semi-autonomous Kurdish portion successful the northbound — Iraq whitethorn yet unafraid a way towards economical independence; otherwise, the federation risks remaining a perpetual battleground caught successful the geopolitical crossfire betwixt Washington and Tehran.

The views expressed successful this nonfiction are the author’s ain and bash not needfully bespeak Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.