Is Turkiye Israel’s next target in the Middle East?

Istanbul, Turkiye – Just hours aft Israel launched strikes past week against Qatar – a United States-designated “major non-NATO ally” and 1 of Washington’s closest Gulf partners – pro-Israel commentators rapidly shifted their attraction to Turkiye.

In Washington, Michael Rubin, a elder chap astatine the right-leaning American Enterprise Institute, suggested that Turkiye could beryllium Israel’s adjacent people and warned that it should not trust connected its NATO rank for protection.

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On societal media, Israeli world and governmental fig Meir Masri posted, “Today Qatar, time Turkey.” Ankara responded sharply. In unusually harsh language, a elder advisor to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan wrote: “To the canine of Zionist Israel … soon the satellite volition find bid with your erasure from the map.”

For months, pro-Israel media outlets person steadily escalated their rhetoric against Turkiye, portraying it arsenic “Israel’s astir unsafe enemy”.

Israeli commentators person besides framed Turkiye’s beingness successful the eastbound Mediterranean arsenic a “threat” and its relation successful rebuilding post-war Syria arsenic a “new rising danger”.

With Israel’s determination aggression escalating and its warfare connected Gaza showing nary motion of ending, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan retaliated successful August by suspending economical and commercialized ties with Israel.

“In Ankara, this [anti-Turkish] rhetoric is taken seriously, with Israel seen arsenic seeking determination hegemony,” Omer Ozkizilcik, non-resident chap astatine the Atlantic Council, told Al Jazeera.

“Turkiye progressively feels that Israeli aggression has nary limits and enjoys American support,” added Ozkizilcik.

The strikes connected Qatar besides apt underscored Ankara’s doubts astir US information guarantees arsenic a NATO ally. Despite Doha’s peculiar state presumption with Washington, Israel faced nary disposable pushback from the US, starring to questions implicit whether the US would genuinely spot immoderate onslaught connected Turkiye arsenic an onslaught connected itself, arsenic the NATO charter dictates.

Unlike galore Arab states, however, “Turkiye has agelong agone understood that it cannot trust connected the US oregon NATO for its ain nationalist information interests,” said Ozkizilcik.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu himself present progressively boasts of his country’s regional expansionist goals. In August, erstwhile asked whether helium believed successful the thought of a “Greater Israel”, helium replied: “Absolutely.”

For Ankara, specified rhetoric is not conscionable symbolic – it signals an Israeli imaginativeness of dominance that stretches crossed the Middle East, perchance clashing head-on with Turkiye’s ain determination outlook.

On Sunday, Fidan told Al Jazeera that Israel’s “Greater Israel” imaginativeness – which immoderate spiritual Zionists judge extends into modern-day Syria, Lebanon, Egypt and Jordan – aims to “keep the countries successful the portion weak, ineffective, and particularly to permission Israel’s neighbouring states divided”.

[Al Jazeera]

Over the past fewer weeks alone, Israel – successful summation to continuing its genocidal onslaught successful Gaza and nearly-daily raids successful the occupied West Bank – besides attacked Yemen and Syria, and is accused of hitting the Gaza assistance flotilla successful Tunisia.

Against this backdrop, Turkiye and Israel are already successful a “geopolitical rivalry”, noted Ozkizilcik, adding that Israel’s actions clashed with what the expert views arsenic the “Turkish docket to person beardown [centralised] states” alternatively than decentralised states wherever aggregate forces tin clasp power.

Regional hegemon

The consciousness that Israel is trying to go the region’s sole ascendant powerfulness seemed to beryllium confirmed successful July erstwhile Tom Barrack, US ambassador to Turkiye and peculiar envoy to Syria, made a startling admission: that Israel would similar a fragmented and divided Syria.

“Strong nation-states are a menace – particularly Arab states, [which] are viewed arsenic a menace to Israel,” helium said.

The subtext for Ankara was clear: Israel believes it needs to beryllium the hegemon successful the portion to consciousness secure.

Israel’s actions carnivore this out. It has bombed Syria dozens of times since December 8 – erstwhile erstwhile President Bashar al-Assad fled to Moscow – and grabbed Syrian territory successful the contiguous chaos.

It decapitated overmuch of Hezbollah’s leadership successful 2024 and inactive occupies parts of Lebanon contempt a ceasefire, agelong seeking to weaken oregon destruct the group.

In June, Israel attacked Iran, sparking a 12-day warfare that struck Iranian subject and atomic facilities, sidesplitting elder commanders and atomic scientists, and dragged successful the US.

The attacks aimed not lone to weaken Tehran’s defence and atomic capabilities but besides to propulsion Washington towards authorities change, targeting 1 of Israel’s strongest rivals successful the region.

Israel whitethorn present presumption Turkiye arsenic the adjacent imaginable situation to its determination hegemony, explaining its adamant stance that Ankara volition not beryllium allowed to found caller bases successful Syria that “could endanger Israel” – arsenic Netanyahu has antecedently said.

“The archetypal manifestation of Turkish-Israeli friction volition astir apt look successful the Syrian beforehand successful the onshore and air,” warns Cem Gurdeniz, a retired Turkish admiral and designer of the Blue Homeland doctrine, a maritime strategy that calls for Turkiye to asseverate its sovereignty and safeguard its interests crossed the surrounding seas – the Aegean, Eastern Mediterranean and Black Sea.

“In parallel, Israel’s deepening subject and quality footprint successful Cyprus, tightly woven with Greece and the Greek Cypriot medication nether American auspices, is perceived successful Ankara arsenic a deliberate effort to fracture and incorporate the Blue Homeland,” Gurdeniz told Al Jazeera.

“To Ankara, this is not a antiaircraft posture by Israel but an violative encirclement strategy that could endanger some Turkish maritime state and the information of the Turkish Cypriot people,” helium added, referring to Turkiye’s ties to the self-proclaimed Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, which is lone Turkiye recognises, alternatively than the remainder of Cyprus, which is ruled by Greek Cypriots.

The part of Cyprus is simply a large root of discontent betwixt Turkiye, Greece and Cyprus.

Reports that Cyprus received Israeli air-defence systems past week are apt to rise alarm successful Ankara.

In tandem successful Syria, Israel has made nary concealed that what it considers to beryllium a unchangeable Syria “can lone beryllium a federal” 1 with “different autonomies”, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar told European leaders astatine a gathering successful Brussels successful February.

Turkiye, connected the different hand, backs the caller Syrian administration, which insists connected a centralised and unitary state.

For now, tensions betwixt Israel and Turkiye tin beryllium described arsenic “controlled”, says Gokhan Cinkara, manager of Necmettin Erbakan University’s Global and Regional Studies Centre successful Turkiye.

“At present, the riskiest script for Turkiye would beryllium an uncontrolled outbreak of intergroup struggle successful Syria. For this reason, Ankara is apt advising the caller Syrian medication to enactment with a grade of rational pragmatism,” Cinkara told Al Jazeera.

“The immaturity of Syria’s information apparatus makes immoderate imaginable intergroup clashes harder to contain, and risks turning it into protracted taste and sectarian conflicts. In the abbreviated term, therefore, adopting a unitary exemplary seems difficult,” helium added.

Red lines and risks

Netanyahu, for his part, is pushing for a “Balkanised” Syria, divided on taste and spiritual lines, demanding the demilitarisation of overmuch of confederate Syria, mostly populated by the country’s Druze population.

That is simply a determination that, if implemented, could airy the touchpaper and ignite demands from members of different groups successful the country, including the Kurds and Alawite, for their ain tailored versions of de facto autonomy.

“Turkiye, however, has wide reddish lines successful Syria,” says Murat Yesiltas, manager of overseas argumentation probe astatine SETA, a deliberation vessel successful Ankara with adjacent ties to the government.

“The US and Israel’s effort to reshape the determination bid carries assorted dangers and risks, deepening fragmentation successful the Middle East,” Yesiltas told Al Jazeera.

In March, Israel’s astir influential information deliberation tank, the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), published a portion that warned against the nascent bid process betwixt Turkiye and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which is seeking to adjacent a section connected a four-decade equipped run against the Turkish authorities successful a struggle that has killed much than 40,000 people.

Israel bombs Syria aerial bases-March 25, 2025 [Al Jazeera]

The INSS warned that this could “weaken the quality of the Kurds successful Syria to proceed to run autonomously” and lend to Ankara “expanding its power successful confederate Syria, successful a mode that could summation the menace to Israeli state of action”.

Israel’s Defence Minister Israel Katz made wide that swaths of recently occupied territory successful confederate Syria volition beryllium held for an “unlimited magnitude of time”.

As Turkiye scoped retired imaginable subject bases successful Syria’s Homs state and the main airdrome successful Hama state successful coordination with the recently established Damascus government, Israel bombed the sites.

“If Tel Aviv persists connected this path, a struggle betwixt Ankara and Tel Aviv volition go inevitable. Turkiye cannot judge policies that perpetuate instability connected its confederate border,” said Yesiltas.

But full-blown rivalry is “not inevitable” arsenic some sides recognise the costs of confrontation, peculiarly fixed economical interdependence, Andreas Krieg, subordinate prof of information studies astatine King’s College London, told Al Jazeera.

“Israel’s menace to Turkiye is not accepted subject aggression but alternatively the targeting of Turkish interests via indirect means,” said Krieg, speaking astir Ankara’s interests successful Syria, the Eastern Mediterranean and the South Caucasus.

Given Washington’s afloat and seemingly unconditional enactment for Netanyahu’s bid to “reshape the region”, Krieg says Ankara’s medicine is to “strengthen strategical deterrence, particularly done expanded air-defence, rocket systems and quality capabilities” and to prosecute determination coalitions with Qatar, Jordan and Iraq portion maintaining unfastened channels with Washington to “avoid afloat strategical isolation”.

“Ankara indispensable recognise that aboriginal flashpoints are much apt to look successful the grey portion – covert operations, aerial strikes, and proxy contention – than successful ceremonial declarations oregon diplomacy,” helium added.