Is Ukraine closer to peace after Trump’s meetings with Zelenskyy, Putin?

Kyiv, Ukraine – With unprecedented backing from European leaders, Ukraine seems – successful mentation – to person secured “very bully protection” from the United States.

“We volition springiness them precise bully protection, precise bully security,” US President Donald Trump said connected Monday, sitting adjacent to his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy and 7 helmsmen from Europe.

The gathering followed the Trump-hosted acme successful Alaska with Russian President Vladimir Putin, which yielded nary ceasefire.

Many questions loom astir however the corporate Western aegis volition assistance Kyiv navigate a bid woody with Moscow and shield it from the resumption of hostilities.

A Ukrainian subject expert is sceptical astir the existent result of Monday’s gathering.

“No determination has been made from the viewpoint of information guarantees, the proviso of arms and [the deployment of Western] troops,” Lt Gen Ihor Romanenko, erstwhile lawman caput of Ukraine’s wide unit of equipped forces, told Al Jazeera.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy speaks during the gathering with US President Donald Trump, French President Emmanuel Macron, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and Finland’s President Alexander Stubb amid negotiations to extremity the Russian warfare successful Ukraine, astatine the White House successful Washington, DC, connected August 18, 2025 [Al Drago/Reuters]

No ‘direct conflict’ with Russia

The information guarantees are vague, undefined and volition astir apt beryllium “relative”, according to Volodymyr Fesenko, caput of the Kyiv-based Penta deliberation tank.

A communal assistance woody with Washington and Brussels guaranteeing their accelerated subject involution if Russia attacks Ukraine “is hardly possible”, helium told Al Jazeera.

“Because we’re talking astir Russia with atomic weapons, and Americans on with Europeans volition avoid the hazard of a nonstop subject struggle with Russia,” helium said.

What whitethorn unafraid the guarantees is simply a Trump-backed woody that removes the fiscal load of protecting Ukraine from US taxpayers, provides US arms manufacturers with hefty profits and makes Europe ft the bill.

Zelenskyy said helium agreed to the aboriginal proviso of US-made weapons worthy $100bn that Europe volition wage for and volition instrumentality years to manufacture and deliver.

The caller mechanics has been dubbed PURL – the Prioritised Ukraine’s Requirements List – and Berlin has already agreed to lend $500bn for subject instrumentality and munitions.

‘Unacceptable deployment’

A “symbolic guarantee” could beryllium the deployment of a European peacekeeping contingent to Ukraine that could go a containment factor, Fesenko said.

“But Russia is categorically against it, and that would beryllium a occupation astatine further talks,” helium added.

Moscow bristled astatine the prospect, calling it the “reanimation of an evidently unviable idea” that is “categorically unacceptable” successful immoderate format, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs said connected Tuesday.

Another imaginable warrant could beryllium Kyiv’s strategical concern woody with Washington, modelled aft akin accords with Egypt oregon South Korea, Fesenko said.

Unlike the February debacle astatine the White House, erstwhile Trump and his Vice President JD Vance insulted Zelenskyy for being “ungrateful” and concisely halted US subject aid, this clip Trump seems to person warmed up to the Ukrainian leader.

“The White House didn’t privation a scandal, it wanted an accord, constructive decisions,” Fesenko said.

Zelenskyy besides changed his ways astir Trump; alternatively of his trademark subject fatigues, connected Monday helium wore authoritative attire – a achromatic suit – and showered the big with “thank yous”.

He besides held his crushed – virtually and metaphorically – by not agreeing to cede the eastbound Donbas portion that Putin demands arsenic a precondition for freezing the beforehand enactment successful different regions.

Zelenskyy “managed to find an perfect equilibrium betwixt the principled defence of his main points, including the substance of ceding territories to Russia”, Fesenko said.

Controlling the exports

Some analysts suggest that portion providing Ukraine with funds, arms and diplomatic support, the European Union failed to curb important subject exports to Russia.

“It didn’t bash the lone happening that earnestly threatened Russia’s subject instrumentality from Europe, namely, it didn’t instrumentality immoderate existent steps to bounds the export of equipment, materials and tools for subject industries to Russia,” Nikolay Mitrokhin of Germany’s Bremen University told Al Jazeera.

The warfare revealed Russia’s technological disadvantage: A deficiency of instrumentality tools and electronics for its precocious weaponry, observers person said.

Moscow has ramped up the acquisition of specified tools and chips, mostly done erstwhile Soviet republics specified arsenic Kyrgyzstan.

The EU could person easy facilitated a strategy of checking the last destination of these exports and imposing colossal fines connected the manufacturers and exporters who allowed them to scope Russia, Mitrokhin said.

“Russia could person hardly recovered an capable replacement successful China oregon different nations, particularly during the war’s archetypal stage,” helium said.

Focusing connected China

Trump’s seemingly abrupt about-face regarding a bid colony successful Ukraine could really beryllium rooted successful Washington’s bigger geopolitical strategy.

The Russian-Ukrainian warfare has outgo the White House hundreds of billions of dollars and rocked its narration with the Kremlin.

But Washington’s main geopolitical rival is Beijing, not Moscow, and Trump is reluctant to walk hundreds of billions much to deter Russia, analysts said.

“That’s the wealth that tin beryllium invested successful the re-industrialisation of the United States that is of paramount value successful the discourse of countering China,” Kyiv-based expert Aleksey Kushch told Al Jazeera.

The White House does not privation to stake its full geopolitical imaginable connected a atomic escalation with Russia the mode it did during the Cold War.

China reaped tremendous geopolitical gains from the Cold War escalation aft US erstwhile President Richard Nixon’s groundbreaking 1972 sojourn to Beijing and Washington’s consequent propulsion to put successful China’s industrialisation.

“China ever wins successful lawsuit of a confrontation betwixt the US and Russia,” Kushch said.

Therefore, Trump needs the Russian-Ukrainian warfare to beryllium implicit truthful that Washington tin absorption connected containing China, helium added.

Putin’s ‘hoodlum mindset’

The bid colony and information guarantees are analyzable by the cardinal quality betwixt the mode the West and Russia spot the war, a Ukrainian warfare seasoned said.

While Western politicians spot immoderate struggle arsenic beneficial oregon detrimental to their nations’ interests, Putin has the mindset of a hoodlum who ever wants to look tough, said Yuri Bohdanchenko, who mislaid his close limb aft stepping connected a Russian landmine successful the confederate portion of Kherson successful 2023.

“Putin thought that conquering america would beryllium easy, but erstwhile helium faced truthful overmuch resistance, helium didn’t halt due to the fact that helium didn’t privation the satellite to see him weak,” helium told Al Jazeera.

Putin snubs the skyrocketing decease toll and Russia’s deepening economical degradation – and understands that the war’s extremity threatens his grip connected power, Bohdanchenko said.

“Fighting is cheap, considering the [high] lipid prices and the propaganda effect astatine home, erstwhile helium tin usage the warfare arsenic an excuse to purge anyone who dares accidental a connection against him, his radical and the corruption they breed,” helium said.