Is Venezuela prepared for a US attack, as Washington ramps up forces?

Venezuela connected Tuesday announced what it called a large nationwide subject deployment successful effect to the beingness of increasing United States naval forces disconnected its coast.

On Thursday, the US besides unveiled an operation, called Southern Spear, which it said was intended to people “narco-terrorists” successful the Western Hemisphere.

The escalation has raised alarm successful Caracas, wherever officials interest the US whitethorn beryllium utilizing these operations arsenic a pretext to unit President Nicolas Maduro retired of power.

“We archer the American empire not to dare: We are prepared,” Foreign Minister Yvan Gil said connected Thursday astatine an lawsuit successful Caracas.

But is Venezuela truly prepared for a US onslaught oregon invasion? What are its subject capabilities? And what mightiness beryllium the calculus driving the decisions of US President Donald Trump and Maduro, respectively?

What has happened implicit the past fewer weeks?

Tensions betwixt Washington and Caracas person been spiralling for weeks, arsenic the Trump medication has deed a bid of boats successful the Caribbean Sea and, much recently, the Pacific Ocean, claiming they were carrying individuals smuggling narcotics into the US.

The 20th onslaught took spot this week, US officials person said. In all, astir 80 radical person been killed. The Trump medication has not presented immoderate grounds to backmost its assertion that the bombed boats had narcotics oregon cause smugglers connected them, oregon that the vessels were adjacent headed to the US. It has besides not offered immoderate ineligible justification for its actions, which galore experts judge interruption planetary law.

At the centre of Washington’s allegations is an unsubstantiated assertion that Venezuela’s Maduro is driving the narcotics smuggling to the US successful cahoots with cartels.

Meanwhile, the US has dispatched the USS Gerald R Ford bearer onslaught radical into Caribbean and Latin American waters, a almighty naval enactment built astir the world’s astir precocious and largest craft carrier.

An craft bearer is simply a floating airbase – a warship that tin launch, land, refuel, and limb subject craft astatine sea.

The Ford is simply a nuclear-powered supercarrier equipped with precocious technology, sailing alongside guided-missile destroyers and enactment ships, with much than 4,000 unit and dozens of tactical craft acceptable for accelerated deployment.

#Venezuela: I've often described the USS Gerald R. Ford successful the media arsenic a "floating fortress of American power." Some facts and figures showing why: pic.twitter.com/f53PeACIOB

— Ryan Berg, PhD (@RyanBergPhD) November 12, 2025

As Washington expands its subject beingness successful the region, analysts accidental the stated goals of the ngo person broadened and whitethorn not afloat align with the capabilities of the forces being deployed.

“The medication has said that the deployment is to halt the travel of amerciable drugs to the US, and besides to degrade the cartels, but implicit clip the US extremity has expanded to see anti-Maduro authorities activities,” said Mark Cancian, elder advisor successful the defence and information programme astatine the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), successful an investigation posted connected X aboriginal connected Friday.

Cancian noted that the bearer whitethorn not beryllium afloat optimised for the ngo arsenic described. “The Ford is not good suited for counter-drug operations… It’s good suited to onslaught adversaries either astatine oversea oregon connected land.”

He besides pointed retired that the deployment of the Ford cannot beryllium indefinite.

“There are demands astir the satellite for its beingness due to the fact that it’s specified a almighty subject asset, and yet it’ll person to spell location – truthful Southern Command volition request to either usage it oregon basal down,” helium said, referring to the US subject bid nether which the Caribbean and the Pacific Ocean fall.

Soldiers connected the US craft bearer USS Gerald R Ford connected its mode into the Oslo Fjord [File: Reuters]

Is Venezuela prepared for an attack?

On Tuesday, Venezuela’s authorities announced a “massive” mobilisation of troops and civilians to hole for immoderate imaginable US action.

Venezuelan Defence Minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez announced a “higher phase” of the Independence Plan 200, a subject effect mechanics ordered successful September to fortify defence measures against the US beingness successful the Caribbean.

“Nearly 200,000 troops person been deployed passim the nationalist territory for this exercise,” Padrino Lopez added.

The workout was scheduled to commencement Tuesday and extremity connected Wednesday.

Padrino Lopez besides stressed that the country’s subject forces were united. He said “more than 90 percent of the radical cull immoderate aggression against Venezuela,” dismissing absorption groups helium described arsenic “minority, subversive, [and] fascist”, and claiming they “no longer exist” successful the nationalist governmental landscape.

He framed the mobilisation arsenic portion of a broader basal against “imperialist aggression” and Washington’s attempts to enactment arsenic “the world’s hegemon” and “the world’s police”, insisting that Venezuela remains committed to its independence, liberty and sovereignty.

Venezuela’s Defence Minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez and subject precocious bid officers be a drill pursuing Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro’s telephone to support nationalist sovereignty [Leonardo Fernandez Viloria/Reuters]

According to analysts, Venezuela’s equipped forces so are – for the astir portion – intimately tied, politically, economically, and institutionally to the question known arsenic Chavismo that has shaped the Venezuelan authorities for much than 20 years.

The subject doctrine is based connected policies laid retired by the precocious Hugo Chavez, and it is based connected members being “patriotic, fashionable and anti-imperialist”. Maduro took implicit arsenic president aft Chavez died successful 2013.

“I don’t deliberation that the Venezuelan authorities and the subject are going to fracture lone due to the fact that of threats,” Elias Ferrer, laminitis of Orinoco Research and the pb exertion of Venezuelan media organisation Guacamaya, told Al Jazeera.

“Because of the mode they deliberation successful beforehand of threats, they’ve ever stuck unneurotic and strengthened their position,” helium added.

Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro holds a folder with a nationalist defence model approved by Venezuela’s National Assembly, ordering the contiguous activation of “integral defence commands” to unify civilian and subject forces [Miraflores Palace/Reuters]

What is Venezuela’s existent subject capability?

According to Global Firepower’s 2025 Military Strength Ranking, Venezuela places 50th worldwide retired of 160 countries assessed successful presumption of subject capabilities.

Within Latin America, it ranks seventh.

It falls down determination militaries specified arsenic those of Brazil, Mexico and Argentina, and sits successful a akin scope to Colombia, Chile, and Peru.

According to a study released by CSIS this week, Venezuela’s aerial unit is tiny and lone partially functional.

Roughly 30 of its 49 craft are believed to beryllium operational, and lone 3 F-16s tin inactive fly, owed to a deficiency of spare parts caused by US sanctions.

According to Military.com, a level focused connected the US subject and seasoned community, Venezuela has invested billions successful Russian-made weapons systems, including missiles and combatant jets, intended to deter oregon situation US ships and aircraft.

Venezuela has astatine slightest 21 operational Su-30s, a Russian combatant craft developed successful the 1980s.

The Su-30s tin beryllium equipped with supersonic antiship missiles, specified arsenic the Kh-31A, which are a important menace to naval warships operating adjacent Venezuela.

The Russian Air Force’s Su-30s combatant jets alert during manoeuvres successful confederate Russia [Russian Defence Ministry Press/AP]

The CSIS study notes that successful the lawsuit of a conflict, Venezuelan airfields and craft would apt beryllium among the archetypal US targets. The US has deployed F-35 stealth fighters to the region, and they are apt intended to antagonistic some Venezuelan fighter-jet manoeuvres and the country’s air-defence systems.

On the ground, however, the investigation suggests that Venezuela maintains a importantly larger unit beingness and greater firepower than the constricted US forces presently positioned offshore.

According to Global Firepower, from a full colonisation of 31 million, the Venezuelan subject has an progressive subject unit of 337,000. Of them, 109,000 are progressive members, 220,000 beryllium to paramilitary forces, and the remaining 8,000 are reserve personnel.

But experts accidental these numbers disguise a much troublesome world for Venezuela: Its subject forces person been hampered by years of constricted warfighting grooming and a absorption connected interior security.

Its navy, meanwhile, is nary lucifer for the US and its uncontested power astatine sea.

Ultimately, analysts hold that the US is militarily acold superior to Venezuela.

“No 1 tin lucifer the powerfulness of the United States subject successful accepted warfare,” Ferrer, the Orinoco Research founder, told Al Jazeera.

“What we request to deliberation astir successful Venezuela is the capableness of the section equipped forces to defy oregon to marque the state ungovernable.

“They tin marque it truthful costly that it’s not worthy it; that’s however you triumph successful asymmetric warfare,” Ferrer added.

Members of the Bolivarian Militia basal successful enactment during subject training, amid rising tensions with the US, successful Caracas, Venezuela [File: Gaby Oraa/Reuters]

Is the US preparing to onslaught Venezuela?

Trump has justified the caller subject buildup by arguing it is indispensable to curb the travel of drugs into the US. But galore analysts judge this is an effort to summation unit connected Nicolas Maduro.

The US president has said helium does not program to invade Venezuela, and Carlos Pina, a Venezuelan governmental scientist, believes Washington’s preferred strategy is so inactive governmental alternatively than military.

“I inactive judge that the main enactment for the US is not to transportation retired immoderate equipped attack, but to use capable unit for Nicolas Maduro to resign and manus implicit powerfulness peacefully,” helium said. “In my opinion, that remains the astir desirable enactment for the US.”

Pina argued that Maduro is afloat alert of this strategy and is responding accordingly. “Maduro knows this, and due to the fact that helium knows it, helium tries to rise the outgo of immoderate imaginable intervention,” Pina said. “He besides counts connected the information that, some successful the portion and adjacent wrong the country, a subject penetration would apt not beryllium good regarded oregon good received.”

However, Pina warned that the standard of the US deployment creates governmental unit of its ain successful Washington.

“After sending truthful overmuch subject instrumentality to the Caribbean, it would beryllium a governmental and diplomatic decision for Trump to bash nothing, to propulsion backmost and permission things arsenic they were earlier the mobilisation,” helium said.

Because of this, Pina said helium expects the US to proceed escalating alternatively than retreating. “Trump volition astir apt bash thing to debar that defeat,” helium said. “He volition apt support expanding subject unit to unit a governmental change, to initiate a transition. And arsenic the days spell by, helium volition proceed gathering up much force-equipment, ships, planes, adjacent troops successful the Caribbean.”