Israel’s continued attacks on Lebanon could derail Hezbollah disarmament

Beirut, Lebanon – The strikes connected Lebanon this week were the latest attacks conducted by Israel connected its bluish neighbour.

Israel has consistently bombed Lebanon and conducted drone strikes contempt a United States-brokered ceasefire successful November 2024. The United Nations Interim Force successful Lebanon (UNIFIL) has documented much than 10,000 ceasefire violations by the Israelis, including 7,500 airspace violations and 2,500 crushed violations.

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The Israeli subject besides continues to inhabit 5 points successful Lebanon, contempt agreeing to retreat each its troops.

On Monday, Israel issued forced evacuation orders for 4 villages successful Lebanon’s southbound and the Bekaa Valley, successful eastbound Lebanon, earlier bombing the areas. The Israeli subject said that the attacks had deed targets associated with the Lebanese radical Hezbollah and the Palestinian radical Hamas.

Then, connected Tuesday, Israel conducted much attacks successful confederate Lebanon, saying that it was targeting Hezbollah operatives.

Weakened Hezbollah

Israel has killed much than 4,000 radical successful Lebanon since October 2023, arsenic portion of its warfare with Hezbollah.

Most of the dormant were killed betwixt September and November 2024, erstwhile much than 1.2 cardinal radical were displaced by Israel’s evacuation warnings.

The World Bank estimates that Israel near Lebanon with astir $11bn successful needs for reconstruction and recovery.

The warfare besides profoundly diminished Hezbollah’s powerfulness successful the country. Much of its subject enactment was killed during the intensification, including its longtime person Hassan Nasrallah. In the war’s aftermath, the radical is being pressured to springiness up the weapons that person agelong defined its individuality arsenic a “resistance” radical to Israel.

In August 2025, the Lebanese authorities approved a plan to person the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) disarm Hezbollah. The determination was domestically fashionable extracurricular of Hezbollah’s enactment basal arsenic a mode of strengthening the Lebanese state, but besides came arsenic a effect of expanding unit from the US and Israel.

For its part, Hezbollah has repeatedly rejected calls for disarmament. The radical says that Israel has not abided by its broadside of the ceasefire.

“To request exclusive arms power portion Israel is committing aggression and the United States is imposing its volition connected Lebanon…means that you are not moving successful Lebanon’s involvement but alternatively successful the involvement of what Israel wants,” Nasrallah’s successor, Naim Qassem, said successful a code connected January 3, 2026.

“We telephone for equipping the Lebanese Army to alteration it to beryllium an service for the state that protects against enemies, successful summation to the different tasks it is doing successful the look of cause and theft gangs, each spies and those who tamper with the country’s security.”

Internal confrontation successful Lebanon?

Still, Hezbollah has mostly been disarmed southbound of the Litani River, according to Lebanese Army and authorities officials. Lebanese subject officials person said the lone places they were incapable to run successful removing Hezbollah weapons and infrastructure were adjacent the Israeli-occupied 5 points.

The deadline to disarm beneath the Litani was the extremity of 2025. Lebanon’s furniture is acceptable to conscionable connected Thursday to sermon “phase two” of the disarmament plan, which would entail disarming Hezbollah and Palestinian militias from the country betwixt the Litani River, situated astir 30km (19 miles) from the Israeli borderline and moving on confederate Lebanon, to the Awali River, which runs conscionable northbound of Sidon. There are astir 40km (25 miles) of territory betwixt the Litani and Awali.

Lebanon’s Prime Minister Nawaf Salam wrote connected societal media that his authorities was focused connected ending Israeli attacks, removing Israeli troops from the 5 points successful southbound Lebanon and returning Lebanese detainees held by Israel.

“We committedness to proceed unneurotic the way of betterment and the hold of authorities authority,” helium wrote.

Salam and others successful the Lebanese authorities admit that the LAF are not beardown capable to face Israel directly. In turn, they person tried to entreaty to determination allies and the planetary community.

“Appealing to the planetary assemblage to unit Israel is simply a indispensable but constricted strategy,” Imad Salamey, a governmental idiosyncratic astatine Lebanese American University, told Al Jazeera.

“While diplomatic engagement tin assistance restrain the standard of Israeli operations and sphere abstraction for negotiations, it is improbable connected its ain to halt attacks unless paired with clear, verifiable advancement connected disarmament and credible information guarantees. In practice, planetary actors thin to spot greater unit connected Lebanon to present results connected the crushed than connected Israel to workout restraint, which reduces the effectiveness of this attack unless Lebanon tin anchor it to a factual bargain linking implementation to measurable Israeli de-escalation.”

The Lebanese authorities is successful a hard position, without galore cards to play. Hezbollah has mostly not impeded the Lebanese Army’s enactment southbound of the Litani. But should Israeli attacks continue, analysts judge the radical won’t beryllium arsenic accommodating going forward.

Qassem Kassir, a Lebanese governmental expert adjacent to Hezbollah, told Al Jazeera that for the radical to statesman discussions of disarmament, Israel indispensable archetypal halt attacking Lebanon and merchandise prisoners, and the Lebanese authorities indispensable statesman reconstructing the harm done by Israel during and since the war.

“Only past tin the aboriginal of weapons beryllium discussed,” helium said.

Kassir warned that nonaccomplishment to code those issues earlier implementing the 2nd signifier of the disarmament program volition spark tensions.

“Otherwise, we volition look a confrontation.”

Hezbollah battered but not defeated

The Lebanese government, meanwhile, is caught betwixt expanding unit from the US and Israel, and Hezbollah’s refusal to disarm.

“As agelong arsenic Israeli strikes continue, Hezbollah and its constituency tin plausibly reason that disarmament beyond the southbound exposes them to greater vulnerability,” Salamey said.

“Israeli strikes relation not lone arsenic subject actions, but besides arsenic strategical messaging, aimed astatine undermining Lebanon’s assertion that it has restored authorities authorization and completed disarmament southbound of the Litani.”

Israel has meantime tried to reason that Hezbollah is regrouping successful the south, contempt counterclaims by the UN peacekeeping unit UNIFIL, and has said the Lebanese Army is moving excessively dilatory successful its disarmament mission.

“If Israel continues its attacks portion the LAF proceeds with signifier 2 disarmament northbound of the Litani River, the repercussions could beryllium severe,” Salamey said. “Israel whitethorn construe immoderate disruption oregon hold arsenic justification to broaden its people set, thereby deepening instability and raising the hazard of a wider confrontation astatine a infinitesimal erstwhile Lebanon is slightest capable to sorb it.”

Should the Lebanese Army proceed with the 2nd signifier portion Israel continues striking targets successful Lebanon, analysts judge Hezbollah could consciousness threatened and respond aggressively.

And portion overseas diplomats and analysts accidental that Hezbollah was greatly weakened by Israel’s warfare connected Lebanon successful 2024, they inactive judge the radical is beardown capable to face immoderate home challenges.

“Consequently, signifier 2 risks evolving from a method information measurement into a broader governmental confrontation implicit sequencing, guarantees, and interior stableness successful Lebanon,” Salamey said.

“The LAF whitethorn look interior friction and localized resistance, placing strain connected civil–military relations and nationalist cohesion,” Salamey added. “Hezbollah, adjacent if avoiding nonstop confrontation with the army, could respond done governmental obstruction oregon calibrated escalation with Israel, expanding the hazard of miscalculation.”