Ivory Coast presidential election: Who’s standing and what’s at stake?

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Ivorians volition caput to the polls connected Saturday, October 25, to ballot successful the statesmanlike predetermination amid wide choler implicit incumbent President Alassane Ouattara’s determination to tally for a 4th consecutive term. Under the constitution, presidents whitethorn lone service a maximum of 2 terms; however, Ouattara argues large law alteration which was implemented successful 2016 “reset” his limit.

Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa and cashew seed producer, is simply a determination powerhouse and West Africa’s second-largest economy. Perched on the seashore of the occidental Atlantic, betwixt Ghana and Liberia, it boasts immense swaths of rainforest and pristine beaches. About one-quarter of the 32 cardinal colonisation is concentrated successful the commercialized hub of Abidjan, portion the authorities has its office successful the inland superior metropolis of Yamoussoukro. French is the authoritative connection successful the erstwhile colony of France, portion the main indigenous languages are Bete, Baoule, Dioula and Senufo.

Who has been barred from moving for president?

Tidjane Thiam

The Constitutional Council shocked Ivorians successful June erstwhile it upheld a little tribunal ruling that Tidjane Thiam, person of the main absorption Democratic Party of the Ivory Coast (PDCI) and Ouattara’s biggest challenger, would beryllium barred arsenic a effect of his erstwhile dual nationality.

The 63-year-old has wide enactment from young people. He formerly worked successful starring fiscal institutions, including Credit Suisse.

Thiam, a relative of the archetypal Ivorian president from 1960 to 1993, Felix Houphouet-Boigny, was calved successful the Ivory Coast but besides received French nationality successful 1987. Although helium renounced it successful March, the tribunal ruled this was excessively late.

Laurent Gbagbo

Also barred is erstwhile president and arch Ouattara rival Laurent Gbagbo of the African People’s Party of the Ivory Coast (PPA-CI), who was charged with crimes against humanity successful transportation with the 2011 election-related civilian war, erstwhile helium refused to measurement down for the declared winner, Ouattara.

Gbagbo, 80, was indicted astatine the International Criminal Court (ICC) successful The Hague, Netherlands, but returned to the Ivory Coast successful 2021 pursuing a lengthy proceedings and his eventual acquittal. He was inactive barred from lasting arsenic president due to the fact that of a transgression condemnation successful an Ivorian court, besides related to the war.

Gbagbo’s adjacent ally, Charles Ble Goude, who was besides indicted and acquitted alongside him astatine the ICC, was excluded, arsenic was Ouattara’s erstwhile premier minister, Guillaume Soro, who was convicted by an Ivorian tribunal successful 2021 connected allegations of plotting a coup 2 years before.

Critics accidental the exclusion of cardinal candidates, peculiarly Gbagbo and Thiam, has fixed Ouattara an unfair caput commencement and fundamentally cleared the mode for his 4th term.

“The exclusion of Gbagbo and Thiam has diminished governmental contention and volition proceed to thrust governmental grievances that underpin civilian unrest and governmental violence, including connected the predetermination day,” Beverly Ochieng, a Senegal-based governmental expert astatine consulting steadfast Control Risks, told Al Jazeera.

Who is running?

Alassane Dramane ‘ADO’ Ouattara

The incumbent, Ouattara, 83, has been successful bureau since December 2010.

He is the person of the ruling Rally of Houphouetistes for Democracy and Peace (RHDP), and his authorities has been praised by observers for its efforts to reconstruct unity pursuing the bitter civilian war, which was fuelled by taste tensions oregon ” Ivoirite ” – claims that peculiar taste groups were much “Ivorian” than others. The arguable word pitted groups successful the predominantly Muslim northbound against the chiefly Christian south. During his presidency, Gbagbo and his supporters had aimed to discredit Ouattara by calling him “non-Ivorian” due to the fact that of rumours helium has roots successful neighbouring Burkina Faso.

Ouattara has a beardown economical record, boosted by exports of cocoa and different cultivation products, arsenic good arsenic large infrastructure projects. Gross home merchandise (GDP) roseate by 8.2 percent connected mean each twelvemonth successful the archetypal decennary of Ouattara’s administration, according to the World Bank, and has continued to turn steadily since then, adjacent during the COVID-19 crisis.

He was voted successful arsenic president for a 2nd word successful 2015 successful a landslide victory. However, enactment for him has slipped since helium decided to tally again successful 2020, arsenic galore Ivorians accidental it violated the two-term constitution limit. At the time, Ouattara initially said helium would not run, but changed his caput aft his party’s campaigner died during the pandemic.

Backed by the Constitutional Council, Ouattara’s supporters reason that the adoption of a caller constitution successful 2016, which removed property limits for statesmanlike candidates and revised nationality requirements, automatically reset the timepiece connected his terms. In effect, they argued, Ouattara was eligible for 2 much terms, starting with the 2020 election.

Violent protests broke retired pursuing the president’s determination to tally successful 2020, and absorption parties boycotted the election, handing Ouattara different landslide. At slightest 85 radical died successful pre- and post-election riots.

There is wide hostility crossed the Francophone West African countries towards their erstwhile coloniser, and the president’s determination to tally for a 4th word has prompted protests successful Abidjan, partially due to the fact that of his perceived closeness to France.

In January 2025, the Ivorian authorities shut down French subject bases, which had been operating successful the state for decades, a determination analysts accidental was designed to appease the public.

Still, Ouattara remains the wide favourite retired of those who person been allowed to run, and helium has promised to escalate infrastructure improvement and absorption connected acquisition and health.

Analyst Ochieng noted that portion the president retains enactment successful the bluish region, wherever helium hails from, his enactment is besides making inroads into the south, but is yet buoyed by authorities resources.

“With each electoral cycle, the playing tract continues to beryllium uneven owed to beardown organization power and power by the ruling campy implicit the governmental and information apparatus,” she said.

Simone Gbagbo

The caput of the Movement of Capable Generations party, formed successful 2022, Simone Gbagbo, 73, was wide known arsenic the Ivory Coast’s “Iron Lady” during the turbulent medication of her then-husband, Laurent Gbagbo, who led the state during the archetypal civilian warfare betwixt 2002 and 2007, and provoked a bloodbath successful 2011 erstwhile helium refused to concede to Ouattara.

Simone Gbagbo was wide viewed arsenic a large orchestrator down her husband’s decision. The mates were arrested unneurotic astatine their Abidjan residence successful April 2011 successful a raid by determination forces deployed to reconstruct peace, starring to the extremity of the war.

Although some Laurent and Simone Gbagbo were indicted by the ICC for alleged warfare crimes related to the conflict, Ouattara’s authorities did not extradite the erstwhile archetypal lady. Instead, she went connected proceedings successful the state and was sentenced to 20 years successful situation successful 2015 for crimes against the state. In 2018, Ouattara granted her amnesty. The mates divorced successful 2023 pursuing Laurent’s instrumentality from his proceedings astatine The Hague.

It is unclear wherefore Simone has not been blocked from moving for president contempt her conviction. During her governmental rallies, she has stated that portion Ouattara’s authorities has led infrastructure projects, she volition code ongoing gaps successful healthcare and occupation opportunities. She has besides spoken retired against the usage of unit against protesters and alleged raids connected the homes of immoderate absorption leaders.

Jean-Louis Billon

Having resigned precocious arsenic commercialized minister, the 60-year-old is the campaigner for the Democratic Congress (CODE), a caller conjugation of 18 parties and governmental movements. Billon has referred to himself arsenic a right-leaning politician.

The businessman and parliament subordinate antecedently tried and failed to go a campaigner for the absorption PDCI enactment aft Thiam was barred from running. The PDCI has not presented different candidate, and galore of its supporters accidental they person been near not knowing who to ballot for.

Billon, who was a subordinate of the furniture until aboriginal this year, erstwhile helium resigned to tally for the elections, is promising “generational change” successful enactment for Ivorians and has pledged to pull accelerated backstage assemblage concern successful the country. He is the lad of Pierre Billon, laminitis of Ivory Coast’s agroindustrial institution SIFCA Group, credited arsenic the largest backstage leader successful the state with astir 17,000 workers.

Ahoua Don Mello

A erstwhile state of Gbagbo, the ex-president, and his spokesperson during the 2011 crisis, Mello, 67, is moving arsenic an autarkic campaigner aft Gbagbo’s PPA-CI kicked him retired implicit his determination to enactment successful the elections astatine all.

Mello, similar different Gbagbo allies, has been taxable to sanctions from the United States and the EU and was successful self-exile from the Ivory Coast until 2021.

Henriette Lagou Adjoua

The 66-year-old person of the centrist coalition, Group of Political Partners for Peace, is simply a campaigner for women successful politics. She was concisely curate of societal affairs betwixt October and December 2000 nether Gbagbo and was 1 of the archetypal 2 women to ever tally for the presidency during the 2015 elections.

What are the cardinal issues successful this election?

Political state and predetermination violence

Opponents of Ouattara person powerfully criticised the government’s prohibition connected cardinal governmental candidates, the blocking of protests and the arrests of demonstrators, and impeach the existent president of backsliding connected antiauthoritarian values. There are concerns that determination volition beryllium convulsive clashes betwixt demonstrators calling for a ballot boycott and information officials during the voting process.

However, Ochieng, the analyst, noted that portion unit whitethorn hap successful the absorption strongholds of Abidjan and Yamoussoukro, it is improbable it volition dispersed crossed the country, arsenic seen successful the 2011 crisis, due to the fact that of the dense beingness of authorities forces.

“Despite governmental misgivings astir Ouattara’s re-election bid, politicians bash not privation to look arsenic if they are encouraging acts of unit oregon vandalism that volition apt pb to their prosecution,” Ochieng said, adding that determination person truthful acold been nary signs of immoderate benignant of systematic mobilisation which could disrupt the polls.

Social inequality

Critics of Ouattara accidental his advancement connected the system has been mostly buoyed by International Monetary Fund-backed loans and, importantly, has not been arsenic experienced, with improvement centred connected municipality areas.

At present, the state owes much than $4bn to the IMF, and is 1 of the 8 astir indebted countries to the institution.

More than 39 percent of the colonisation was surviving beneath the nationalist poorness enactment successful 2023, according to the World Bank.

The household depletion of the richest 20 percent of the colonisation is astir six times what the poorest 20 percent consume, according to the World Bank.

There is besides crisp economical disparity betwixt municipality areas, wherever the poorness complaint is an already precise precocious 31 percent, and agrarian areas, wherever it is 54.6 percent. The prime and availability of important infrastructure specified arsenic water, schools and healthcare centres besides disagree sharply betwixt the much deprived northbound and the wealthier south.

Climate alteration is adding to inequality, with heatwaves disrupting cocoa accumulation arsenic good arsenic the harvest of tomatoes, chillies and different nutrient crops successful poorer, agrarian areas. The state has been forced to trust connected neighbouring countries similar Burkina Faso and Niger for nutrient imports.

Armed groups successful the region

Ivory Coast is besides susceptible to spill-over violence from its Sahel neighbours, Mali and Burkina Faso, wherever equipped groups specified arsenic Jama’a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) and the ISIL affiliate successful the Greater Sahara (ISGS) person been conducting a convulsive rampage, attacking communities and subject bases.

In March 2016, 3 equipped men attacked a edifice astatine the formation edifice of Grand Bassam, sidesplitting 19 people. Two groups – al-Qaeda successful the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and al-Mourabitoun – aboriginal claimed work for the attack. It marked the archetypal specified onslaught connected Ivorian soil.

Again, successful June 2020, equipped men raided a subject outpost successful bluish Kafolo, connected the borderline with Burkina Faso, sidesplitting 14 soldiers and injuring others.

This is simply a cardinal contented successful the run of Ouattara, who has pledged to guarantee security. He has harped connected the request for stableness astatine a clip of rising determination insecurity. His government, since 2022, has boosted the defence budget, accrued unit deployments successful the bluish regions neighbouring the Sahel, and bought armoured tanks from countries similar China.

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Ivory Coast presidential election: Who’s standing and what’s at stake?

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