Japan could get its first woman prime minister as Sanae Takaichi leads the polls. But it's far from a done deal

With Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba expressing his volition to resign, the contention to go the country's adjacent person has been thrown wide open.

Various names person been bandied astir to spot who would win Ishiba, but 2 salient names person emerged: erstwhile economical information curate Sanae Takaichi and existent agriculture curate Shinjiro Koizumi.

Neither has formally announced a run, but governmental hazard consultancy Eurasia Group said some are expected to participate the contention to regenerate Ishiba.

A Nikkei sentiment poll past period showed Takaichi starring with 23% support, portion Koizumi had 22%. If elected, Takaichi would beryllium the archetypal pistillate to helm the world's fourth-largest economy.

When asked if Japan was acceptable for a pistillate premier minister, Tomohiko Taniguchi, erstwhile peculiar advisor to the furniture nether the precocious Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, told CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia" that voters are much acceptable for a pistillate person than galore assume.

"It's conscionable astir clip for Japan to person the archetypal pistillate premier minister, and I deliberation it's successful enactment with the changes that person happened implicit the past 10, 15 years," helium noted, adding that "female labour information successful Japan is bigger successful fig than it is successful the United States."

About 85% of Japanese women aged betwixt 25 and 54 years were working, compared with 78% successful the U.S, according to the latest information from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

Takaichi ran against Ishiba successful past year's Liberal Democratic Party enactment race and led successful the archetypal circular earlier losing successful the runoff.

She aboriginal distanced herself from Ishiba's government, not taking up immoderate relation successful the furniture and refusing his connection to seat the cardinal LDP General Council.

In a property league Sunday, Ishiba said that helium was resigning to instrumentality work for a bid of predetermination losses.

His departure comes arsenic Japan faces a outgo of surviving crisis, with rice prices reaching their highest complaint of summation successful implicit 50 years successful June.

Ishiba besides pointed to the completion of a commercialized deal with the U.S., which acceptable a 15% baseline tariff connected each Japanese exports to the U.S., including its car sector.

"With Japan having signed the commercialized statement and the president having signed the enforcement order, we person passed a cardinal hurdle," Ishiba said, according to Reuters. "I would similar to walk the baton to the adjacent generation."

His resignation besides ends a abbreviated stint that saw the ruling LDP and inferior conjugation spouse Komeito suffer their bulk successful some Japan's upper and lower houses of parliament.

Takaichi is an "apostle of Abenomics", according to Eurasia Group, a notation to the economical policies of Abe, which espoused large-scale monetary argumentation easing, fiscal spending and structural reforms.

"Investors volition intimately ticker Takaichi's electoral prospects due to the fact that of her erstwhile pointed disapproval of the Bank of Japan's plans to rise involvement rates, and her enactment for larger fiscal stimulus," the enactment added.

The BOJ ended its antagonistic involvement complaint authorities successful March 2024 and astir precocious kept rates astatine 0.5%. However, up of the LDP enactment contention past October, Takaichi had said that the BOJ's hikes were "too early."

She is besides successful favour of revising Japan's pacifist constitution, particularly Article 9, which renounced Japan's close to wage war.

By contrast, Koizumi has been little outspoken connected policy, but the lad of erstwhile Japanese person Junichiro Koizumi roseate to prominence aft taking implicit arsenic workplace curate and managing the atom situation successful Japan.

Jesper Koll, adept manager astatine fiscal services steadfast Monex Group said that Takaichi has "strong argumentation ideas and, much importantly, a beardown squad of 'enforcers' from wrong some the LDP and the elite bureaucracy."

While the mainstream LDP whitethorn not similar her ideas, she scores good among LDP's elite who respect her thoroughness and willingness to engage, reason and get things done, said Koll, who labeled her ideas "radical."

In contrast, Koll said, Koizumi is simply a harmless brace of hands. "Because helium is fundamentally vacuous connected policy, the LDP old-guard feels assured helium won't upstage their entrenched docket on, for example, cultivation argumentation oregon agrarian vested involvement protection."

He could besides easy physique a compromise with the absorption parties successful the little location to get their enactment to beryllium the premier minister.

Despite the LDP-Komeito being Japan's governing coalition, the victor of the LDP enactment contention whitethorn not automatically go premier curate arsenic the Lower House makes the last choice.

Because the LDP mislaid its bulk successful the chamber, each the absorption lawmakers could, if agreed down a azygous candidate, take the adjacent premier minister.

The LDP and Komeito person a combined 220 seats successful the 465-seat Lower House. But this script is unlikely, Eurasia analysts said, fixed that the LDP, with its 196 seats, is inactive the largest voting bloc successful the Lower House.