TOKYO, JAPAN - JANUARY 27: Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi (C), Japan Innovation Party Representative Hirofumi Yoshimura (L) and Japan Innovation Party Co-Representative Fumitake Fujita (R) clasp up their hands during an predetermination run rally connected January 27, 2026 successful the Akihabara country of Tokyo, Japan. Official campaigning for the wide predetermination for the House of Representatives, scheduled for February 8, began today. (Photo by Tomohiro Ohsumi/Getty Images)
Tomohiro Ohsumi | Getty Images News | Getty Images
As Japan heads to the polls connected Feb. 8, voters are weighing acquainted concerns specified arsenic the outgo of living, wages and the anemic yen arsenic they formed ballots successful the Lower House election.
Beyond the economy, however, the ballot is besides shaping up arsenic a trial of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi herself, with analysts saying the fiercely blimpish person has efficaciously turned the predetermination into a referendum connected her leadership.
"She's trying to marque it arsenic a referendum connected whether the radical judge [her] arsenic a premier curate oregon not," said Kazuto Suzuki, manager astatine the Institute of Geoeconomics, a Tokyo-based deliberation tank.
Takaichi has made small effort to downplay the idiosyncratic stakes. On Jan. 19, she said she was "putting my aboriginal arsenic premier curate connected this election" and asked voters to determine whether they could entrust the absorption of the state to her.
If the LDP manages to summation a wide bulk successful this election, it volition beryllium wholly attributable to Takaichi's idiosyncratic popularity — small other has changed since July erstwhile the LDP was drubbed astatine the polls."
Kristi Govella
Japan Chair, Center for Strategic and International Studies
The strategy reflects Takaichi's high support ratings, which until precocious had stood supra 70%. The premier curate is seeking to construe that idiosyncratic popularity into votes for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, whose ain support remains acold weaker.
"[Takaichi is] betting connected her precocious levels of nationalist support and fragmentation among the absorption parties to transportation the day," said Mireya Solís, manager of the Center for Asia Policy Studies astatine the Brookings Institution.
Takaichi presently leads an untested conjugation of the LDP and the Japan Innovation Party, pursuing the extremity of a 26-year partnership with Komeito successful October.
While her idiosyncratic ratings stay strong, enactment for the LDP itself lags astatine conscionable nether 30%, underscoring the spread betwixt person and party.
Jesper Koll, adept manager astatine Tokyo-based fiscal services steadfast Monex Group, told CNBC successful December that Takaichi was an "inspiration" to some older voters and, successful particular, younger Japanese.
Her idiosyncratic appeal, alternatively than her economical policies, whitethorn beryllium decisive, Koll said, perchance driving a landslide victory.
"Takaichi is the surviving illustration of a self-made pistillate rising to the apical against each the likelihood — self-made, a mean working-class household background, neither wealth nor Brahman, but hard work, dedication, passion, and willingness to bash what is right."
Jesper Koll
Expert Director, Monex Group
"Takaichi is the surviving illustration of a self-made pistillate rising to the apical against each the likelihood — self-made, a mean working-class household background, neither wealth nor Brahman," Koll said. "But hard work, dedication, passion, and willingness to bash what is right."
Others cautioned against framing the predetermination arsenic a straightforward endorsement of the premier minister.
Kristi Govella, an subordinate prof astatine the University of Oxford, said it whitethorn beryllium "difficult" to framework the ballot arsenic a referendum connected Takaichi, fixed her comparatively abbreviated clip successful office.
"If the LDP manages to summation a wide bulk successful this election, it volition beryllium wholly attributable to Takaichi's idiosyncratic popularity—little other has changed since July erstwhile the LDP was drubbed astatine the polls," said Govella, who is besides the Japan Chair astatine the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
The LDP's electoral setbacks occurred nether erstwhile Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who called a drawback predetermination successful 2024 aft defeating Takaichi successful the enactment enactment race.
The enactment mislaid its Lower House bulk then. Ishiba aboriginal resigned successful September 2025 aft the LDP besides mislaid power of the Upper House successful July.
Economic pressures
Economic pressures stay a backdrop for voters. Japan has endured ostentation supra the Bank of Japan's people for 45 consecutive months, declining existent wages and persistent yen weakness.
The astir caller ostentation reading stood astatine 2.1%, portion full-year ostentation reached 3.2%. Real wages fell for 11 consecutive months year-on-year successful 2025, and connected a yearly basis, existent wages person fallen each twelvemonth since 2022.
A spike successful atom prices successful mid-2025 besides weighed connected household sentiment and contributed to the LDP's electoral struggles.
The yen weakened further astatine the commencement of 2026, concisely approaching the 160 level against the U.S. dollar. While a weaker currency benefits exporters, it has besides amplified imported inflation.
Suzuki from the Institute of Geoeconomics said portion the outgo of surviving is simply a large issue, voters bash not look to beryllium straight linking cost-of-living pressures to Takaichi's policies.
"[Voters] are acrophobic astir inflation, but they look to beryllium discounting that... I deliberation that they're good for the astir portion with Ms Takaichi's property to beryllium expansionary," said Ross Schaap, caput of probe astatine geopolitical hazard steadfast GeoQuant.
Takaichi had laid retired a grounds $783 cardinal fund for the adjacent fiscal twelvemonth starting April 1, connected apical of a $135 cardinal stimulus package introduced past twelvemonth to assistance households with rising surviving costs.
A much unified opposition
Despite Takaichi's popularity, the ruling conjugation faces a much unified absorption than successful erstwhile elections.
Former conjugation spouse Komeito has joined forces with the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, the largest absorption bloc successful the Lower House, to signifier a caller centrist alliance.
The LDP and Japan Innovation Party held a razor-thin bulk earlier parliament was dissolved connected Jan. 23 for the drawback election, controlling 230 of the 465 seats successful the Lower House. With three independents voting alongside the LDP, the ruling bloc's effectual bulk was conscionable 1 seat.
The nonaccomplishment of Komeito could beryllium costly, analysts said, arsenic the enactment has historically played a important relation successful mobilizing voters for the LDP.
That dynamic makes the predetermination result highly uncertain, according to GeoQuant's Schaap.
He said the caller Centrist Reform Alliance could payment from greater absorption coordination by pairing much pragmatic argumentation proposals from the CDP with Komeito's elector mobilization machinery.
"[Takaichi's] precocious support is big, but absorption coordination is besides truly important, and the absorption coordination could flooded the precocious approval," Schaap said.
"Look for precocious turnout. If there's precocious turnout, it could beryllium a bully time for Takaichi. If there's not a precocious turnout, past it volition beryllium a adjacent race."
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