Just 25% of public think Starmer will win next election - with welfare row partly to blame

Only a 4th of British adults deliberation Sir Keir Starmer volition triumph the adjacent wide election, arsenic the party's climbdown implicit payment cuts affects its lasting with the public.

A caller canvass by Ipsos, shared with Sky News, besides recovered 63% bash not consciousness assured the authorities is moving the state competently, akin to levels scored by erstwhile Conservative administrations nether Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak successful July 2022 and February 2023, respectively.

Politics latest: 'A infinitesimal of aggravated peril' for PM

The survey of 1,080 adults aged 18-75 crossed Great Britain was conducted online betwixt 27 and 30 June 2025, erstwhile Labour began making the archetypal of its concessions, suggesting the party's turmoil implicit its ain benefits overhaul is partially to blame.

The premier curate was forced into an embarrassing climbdown connected Tuesday nighttime over his plans to slash payment spending, aft it became evident helium was successful information of losing the ballot owing to a rebellion among his ain MPs.

The measure that was enactment to MPs for a ballot was truthful watered down that the astir arguable constituent - to tighten the eligibility criteria for idiosyncratic independency payments (PIP) - was enactment connected hold, pending a reappraisal into the appraisal process by curate Stephen Timms that is owed to study backmost successful the autumn.

The authorities was forced into a U-turn aft Labour MPs signalled publically and privately that the erstwhile concession made astatine the play to support existing claimants from the caller rules would not beryllium enough.

While the measure passed its archetypal parliamentary hurdle past night, with a bulk of 75, 49 Labour MPs inactive voted against it - the largest rebellion successful a premier minister's archetypal twelvemonth successful bureau since 47 MPs voted against Tony Blair's Lone Parent payment successful 1997, according to Professor Phil Cowley from Queen Mary University.

It near MPs to ballot connected lone 1 constituent of the archetypal program - the chopped to Universal Credit (UC) sickness benefits for caller claimants from £97 a week to £50 from 2026/7.

An amendment brought by Labour MP Rachael Maskell, which aimed to forestall the measure progressing to the adjacent stage, was defeated but 44 Labour MPs voted for it.

The incidental has raised questions astir Sir Keir's authorization conscionable a twelvemonth aft the wide predetermination delivered him the archetypal Labour landslide triumph successful decades.

Read more:
How did your MP ballot connected Labour's payment bill?
The PM faced down his enactment connected payment and lost

And connected Wednesday, Downing Street insisted Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, was "not going anywhere" aft her tearful quality successful the House of Commons during premier minister's questions sparked speculation astir her governmental future.

The Ipsos canvass besides recovered that two-thirds of British adults are not assured Labour has the close plans to alteration the mode the benefits strategy works successful the UK, including astir fractional of 2024 Labour voters.

Keiran Pedley, manager of UK Politics astatine Ipsos, said: "Labour rows implicit payment betterment haven't conscionable harmed the public's presumption connected whether they tin marque the close changes successful that argumentation area, they are raising wider questions astir their quality to govern too.

"The nationalist is starting to uncertainty Labour's quality to govern competently and earnestly astatine the aforesaid levels they did with Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak's governments. Labour volition anticipation that this authorities doesn't extremity up going the aforesaid way."