Khaleda Zia’s death marks key test for Bangladesh’s BNP ahead of elections

Dhaka, Bangladesh – On Tuesday, the premises of Evercare Hospital successful Bangladesh’s superior turned into a sombre focal constituent for a nation’s grief arsenic quality filtered retired of the aesculapian facility: Khaleda Zia, three-time premier curate and longtime person of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), was dead.

Khaleda had been receiving attraction astatine the infirmary since the nighttime of November 23.

Supporters, enactment leaders and communal citizens stood silently successful beforehand of the infirmary gates, wiping distant tears and offering prayers. “The quality made it intolerable for america to enactment astatine home,” said BNP activistic Riyadul Islam. “Since determination is nary accidental to spot her, everyone is waiting outside. There are tears successful everyone’s eyes.”

Her ceremonial astatine Dhaka’s Manik Mia Avenue connected Wednesday drew tens of thousands of BNP supporters from crossed the country, alongside leaders of different governmental parties, interim authorities caput Muhammad Yunus and overseas diplomats – underscoring the imprint of Khaleda’s legacy, and however it extended good beyond Bangladesh’s borders.

But beyond the grief, Khaleda Zia’s decease marks a decisive governmental rupture for the BNP astatine a captious moment, accidental governmental analysts.

With nationalist elections scheduled for February 12, the enactment is entering the run without the person who remained its eventual awesome of unity, adjacent during years of unwellness and governmental inactivity.

Her passing pushes BNP into a afloat post-Khaleda phase, concentrating authorization and accountability connected her lad and acting chairperson, Tarique Rahman, arsenic the enactment seeks to consolidate its basal and vie successful a reshaped governmental scenery pursuing the July 2024 upheaval and the consequent banning of the Awami League’s governmental activities.

Bangladesh Nationalist Party’s acting president Tarique Rahman addresses mourners earlier the ceremonial prayers for his parent and erstwhile Prime Minister Khaleda Zia astatine the Parliament gathering country of Manik Mia Avenue, successful Dhaka, Bangladesh, December 31, 2025 [Stringer/Reuters]

Legacy arsenic anchor, lack arsenic test

For decades, Khaleda Zia’s relevance extended beyond ceremonial leadership.

Even erstwhile absent from front-line politics, she functioned arsenic the party’s motivation centre and last authority, helping to incorporate factionalism and defer enactment questions.

Mahdi Amin, advisor to Tarique Rahman, told Al Jazeera that Bangladesh had mislaid “a existent guardian”, describing Khaleda Zia arsenic a unifying awesome of sovereignty, independency and democracy.

He said the BNP would transportation guardant her bequest done its policies and governance priorities if elected.

“The hallmark of her authorities was a beardown parliamentary ideology – regularisation of law, quality rights and state of expression,” Amin said, adding that the BNP aims to reconstruct institutions and rights that, helium claimed, were eroded during the Awami League’s 15-year rule, betwixt 2009 and 2024, nether past Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, Khaleda’s longtime rival.

Amin insisted that Tarique has already emerged arsenic a unifying figure, citing his relation successful coordinating the question against Hasina and formulating a 31-point betterment docket aimed astatine restoring voting rights and organization accountability.

Despite these assertions, however, analysts accidental Khaleda’s lack removes a captious furniture of symbolic authorization that agelong helped stabilise the BNP’s interior politics.

Writer and governmental expert Mohiuddin Ahmed said Khaleda’s idiosyncratic charisma played a cardinal relation successful keeping the enactment energised and cohesive.

“That bushed volition beryllium disrupted,” helium said. “Tarique Rahman present has to beryllium his enactment done a process. His enactment remains untested.”

Ahmed noted that Khaleda herself was erstwhile an untested governmental figure, rising to nationalist prominence during the wide pro-democracy question of the 1980s that yet led to the autumn of subject ruler General Hussain Muhammad Ershad. Her husband, the then-President Ziaur Rahman, was assassinated successful 1981 during a failed subject coup.

Ahmed argued that the February predetermination could play a akin defining relation for Tarique Rahman: Success would validate his leadership, portion nonaccomplishment would intensify scrutiny.

Leaders of the National Citizen Party chat during an interrogation with an aspiring campaigner up of the country’s upcoming nationalist election, successful Dhaka, Bangladesh, November 24, 2025. The NCP, founded by students who led the July 2024 question against Sheikh Hasina, has present tied up with the Jamaat-e-Islami, Bangladesh’s biggest Islamist force, successful a conjugation for the predetermination [Sam Jahan/Reuters]

A tougher electoral terrain

BNP’s situation is compounded by a transformed absorption landscape.

For much than 3 decades, Bangladesh’s electoral authorities were shaped by a near-binary rivalry betwixt the Awami League and the BNP, a signifier that emerged aft the autumn of subject regularisation successful 1990 and hardened done successive elections successful the 1990s and 2000s.

With the Awami League present absent – its governmental activities banned by the Yunus medication – that two-party dominance has fractured, forcing BNP to vie successful a much crowded tract that includes a beardown confederation led by the Jamaat-e-Islami, Bangladesh’s biggest Islamist force. The Jamaat conjugation includes the National Citizen Party, launched by galore of the younker leaders who drove the July 2024 wide question that forced Hasina retired of powerfulness and into exile successful India.

“This volition not beryllium casual for BNP,” Ahmed said. “Post-July [2024] authorities has changed the equation. New polarisation is emerging, and the dominance of 2 parties nary longer holds,” helium added.

Analysts besides constituent to cardinal uncertainties that linger: whether the predetermination volition beryllium held connected time, whether it volition beryllium peaceful, and whether large parties tin guarantee nationalist assurance successful the process.

Dilara Choudhury, a governmental idiosyncratic who observed some Khaleda and her hubby closely, said Khaleda Zia functioned arsenic a “guardian figure” for not conscionable her party, but besides the country, and that her decease represents the nonaccomplishment of a elder stabilising beingness successful Bangladesh politics.

Tarique, Khaleda’s son, was successful exile successful the United Kingdom from 2008 until December 25, 2025, erstwhile helium returned aft a bid of cases against him that were initiated by a military-backed authorities successful powerfulness betwixt 2006 and 2009, oregon by the consequent Hasina government, were closed.

She argued that Tarique’s instrumentality to the state has reduced fears of interior part wrong the enactment and that his caller speeches – reaffirming Bangladeshi nationalism, rejecting authoritarianism and honouring victims of the 2024 July uprising unit – person reassured enactment supporters astir ideological continuity.

“BNP and Awami League person some been personality-centred parties,” she said. “After Khaleda Zia, it is earthy that Tarique Rahman occupies that abstraction wrong the BNP.”

Thousands of radical stitchery to be ceremonial prayers for erstwhile Prime Minister Khaleda Zia extracurricular the nationalist Parliament gathering successful Dhaka, Bangladesh, Wednesday, December 31, 2025 [Mahmud Hossain Opu/AP Photo]

From bequest to verdict

Yet BNP leaders admit that bequest unsocial volition not find the party’s future.

Allegations of extortion involving immoderate enactment activists proceed to aboveground – an contented that advisor Mahdi Amin described arsenic mostly exaggerated, though helium said the enactment plans to code it done stricter interior controls.

At the grassroots level, immoderate enactment members accidental Tarique’s enactment modulation volition not beryllium without challenges.

“It would beryllium unrealistic to accidental determination volition beryllium nary difficulties,” said Kamal Uddin, elder associated caput of the Chakaria upazila portion of Jubo Dal, the BNP’s younker wing, successful Cox’s Bazar district. “In the past, determination were disagreements with elder leaders who worked intimately with Khaleda Zia – and adjacent with Ziaur Rahman. That could beryllium a situation successful decision-making. But I judge helium volition beryllium capable to manage.”

Kamal Uddin travelled with 3 different BNP activists from Cox’s Bazar, a coastal metropolis connected the Bay of Bengal astir 350km (217 miles) southbound of Dhaka, to be Khaleda Zia’s ceremonial connected Wednesday.

Senior BNP leaders, however, disregard doubts implicit Tarique’s authority.

Standing committee subordinate Amir Khasru Mahmud Chowdhury, who served arsenic commerce curate successful Khaleda Zia’s furniture from 2001 to 2004, said Tarique’s enactment credentials were already established.

“His enactment has been proven,” Chowdhury told Al Jazeera earlier this month. “He is susceptible of starring the enactment effectively.”

As BNP prepares for the polls, analysts accidental the party’s quality to guarantee discipline, task betterment and lend to a peaceful predetermination volition itself beryllium a trial of Tarique’s leadership.

A abstracted treatment has emerged connected societal media and among governmental rivals.

On November 29, up of his eventual return, Tarique wrote connected his verified Facebook leafage that the determination to travel location was not “entirely wrong his control” and not “under his sole control”. Critics interpreted this arsenic raising questions astir imaginable outer power – peculiarly India – connected whether and erstwhile helium would return.

BNP leaders rejected these claims, insisting his instrumentality was a governmental and ineligible substance tied to home realities alternatively than overseas negotiation, and that nationalist involvement would usher the party’s argumentation if it comes to power.

For galore supporters, however, authorities remains profoundly personal.

Fifty-seven-year-old Dulal Mia, who travelled from the northeastern territory of Kishoreganj to be Tarique’s reception rally successful Dhaka connected December 25, inactive recalls the infinitesimal that made him a lifelong BNP supporter.

When helium was a sixth-grader successful 1979, helium said, then-President Ziaur Rahman visited the paddy tract wherever helium was moving and shook his hand. Ziaur Rahman is remembered for addressing drought by digging canals crossed the state and visiting distant areas barefoot, often without ceremonial protocol.

“Tarique Rahman volition person to transportation the bequest of his parents,” Mia said. “If helium doesn’t, radical volition crook away. The BNP’s authorities is people’s authorities – it began with Ziaur Rahman and was carried by Khaleda Zia for truthful long. I judge Tarique Rahman volition bash the same. Otherwise, it is the radical who volition cull him.”