‘Last-ditch push’: Pakistan-Afghanistan talks falter amid deep mistrust

Islamabad, Pakistan – After 3 days, talks betwixt Pakistan and Afghanistan successful Istanbul, aimed astatine ending a tense and convulsive standoff betwixt the South Asian neighbours, appeared to person deed a partition successful Istanbul connected Tuesday.

Mediated by Qatar and Türkiye, the negotiations followed an initial circular of dialog successful Doha, which produced a temporary ceasefire connected October 19 aft a week of warring that near dozens dormant connected some sides.

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But adjacent though officials and experts said that “last-ditch” efforts were expected to proceed to effort to propulsion the 2 countries backmost from a full-fledged conflict, the prospects of caller hostilities betwixt them loom ample aft their inability, truthful far, to physique connected the Doha truce, analysts say.

Pakistani information officials said that connected Monday, talks went connected for astir 18 hours. But they accused the Afghan delegation of changing its presumption connected Islamabad’s cardinal request – that Kabul ace down connected the Pakistan Taliban equipped group, known by the acronym TTP. One official, speaking to Al Jazeera connected information of anonymity due to the fact that of the sensitivity of the dialogue, alleged that the “instructions received from Kabul” for the Afghan squad were complicating negotiations.

Kabul, however, blamed the Pakistani delegation for a “lack of coordination,” claiming the Pakistani broadside was “not presenting wide arguments” and kept “leaving the negotiating table”, Afghan media reported.

The Afghan squad is being led by the lawman curate for administrative affairs astatine the Ministry of Interior, Haji Najib, portion Pakistan has not publically disclosed its representatives.

Recent cross-border attacks betwixt the militaries of the 2 countries person killed aggregate people, troops and civilians, and injured galore more successful some Pakistan and Afghanistan.

United States President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly sought recognition for resolving planetary conflicts, besides waded in, saying helium would “solve the Afghanistan-Pakistan situation precise quickly”, portion speaking to reporters connected the sidelines of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN) summit successful Malaysia earlier successful the week.

Yet, immoderate semipermanent colony appears hard owed to the 2 nations’ “profound communal distrust and conflicting priorities”, said Baqir Sajjad Syed, a erstwhile Pakistan chap astatine the Wilson Center and a writer who covers nationalist security.

Syed added that their historical grievances and Pakistan’s past interventions successful Afghanistan marque concessions politically risky for the Afghan Taliban.

“In my view, the halfway contented is ideological alignment. The Afghan Taliban’s dependence connected TTP for dealing with interior information problems [inside Afghanistan] makes it hard for them to dissociate from the group, contempt Pakistani concerns,” helium told Al Jazeera.

A fraught friendship

Historically, Pakistan was agelong perceived arsenic the superior patron of the Afghan Taliban. Many successful Pakistan publically welcomed the Taliban’s instrumentality to powerfulness successful August 2021 aft the withdrawal of US forces.

But relations person sharply deteriorated since, mostly implicit the TTP, an equipped radical that emerged successful 2007 during the US-led alleged “war connected terror”, and which has waged a agelong run against Islamabad.

Pakistani information unit person faced expanding attacks from the TTP equipped radical [Fayaz Aziz/Reuters]

The TTP seeks the merchandise of its members imprisoned successful Pakistan and opposes the merger of Pakistan’s erstwhile tribal areas into its Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. Although autarkic from the Afghan Taliban, the 2 groups are ideologically aligned.

Islamabad accuses Kabul of providing sanctuary not lone to the TTP but to different groups, including the Balochistan Liberation Army and the ISIL (ISIS) affiliate successful Khorasan Province (ISKP), charges Kabul denies.

The Afghan Taliban person insisted that the TTP is simply a Pakistani problem, repeatedly arguing that insecurity successful Pakistan is simply a home matter. And the Taliban person themselves agelong viewed the ISKP arsenic enemies.

Mullah Yaqoob, Afghanistan’s defence curate who signed the ceasefire successful Doha with his Pakistani counterpart, Khawaja Asif, past week, said successful an interrogation connected October 19 that states sometimes utilized the statement “terrorism” for governmental ends.

“There is nary cosmopolitan oregon wide explanation of terrorism,” helium said, adding that immoderate authorities tin marque its adversaries arsenic “terrorists” for its ain agenda.

Meanwhile, determination powers including Iran, Russia, China, and respective Central Asian states person besides urged the Taliban to destruct the TTP and different equipped groups allegedly operating from Afghanistan.

That entreaty was renewed successful Moscow successful aboriginal October, successful consultations besides attended by Afghan Minister of Foreign Affairs Amir Khan Muttaqi.

Rising toll, rising tensions

In caller days, respective attacks person killed much than 2 twelve Pakistani soldiers, including officers.

The twelvemonth 2024 was among Pakistan’s deadliest successful astir a decade, with much than 2,500 casualties recorded, and 2025 is connected way to surpass that, analysts say.

Both civilians and information unit person been targeted, with astir attacks concentrated successful Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. TTP operations person accrued sharply successful some frequence and intensity.

“Our information amusement that the TTP engaged successful astatine slightest 600 attacks against, oregon clashes with, information forces successful the past twelvemonth alone. Its enactment successful 2025 truthful acold already exceeds that seen successful each of 2024,” a caller Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) study said.

Ihsanullah Tipu Mehsud, an Islamabad-based information analyst, says that Pakistani negotiators indispensable recognise that ties betwixt the Taliban and the TTP are rooted successful ideology, making it hard for Afghanistan’s authorities to springiness up connected the anti-Pakistan equipped group.

Journalist Sami Yousafzai, a longtime perceiver of Pakistan-Afghanistan relations, agreed, saying that the prospects of a détente present look progressively remote.

Both Mehsud and Yousafzai pointed to the Taliban’s past of sticking by allies adjacent successful the look of planetary pressure, and adjacent subject assault.

“We person seen this aforesaid cognition from the Afghan Taliban successful 2001, when, aft the 9/11 attacks, they continued to stay steadfastly with Al al-Qaeda,” Mehsud said.

According to Yousafzai, “the Afghan Taliban are warfare veterans, and they tin withstand subject pressure”.

Failed diplomacy?

In caller months, some sides person pursued diplomacy, nudged besides by China, which has mediated talks betwixt them, successful summation to Qatar and Turkiye.

Yet, analysts accidental Islamabad mightiness soon reason that it has fewer nonmilitary options to code its concerns.

Syed pointed to Pakistani Defence Minister Asif’s caller menace of an “open war” and said that these comments could presage targeted aerial strikes oregon cross-border operations against alleged TTP sanctuaries successful Afghanistan.

“That said, mediators, peculiarly Qatar and Turkiye, are expected to marque a last-ditch propulsion to revive dialog oregon displacement it to different venue. There is besides a tiny anticipation of different countries joining in, particularly aft President Trump’s latest awesome of readiness to measurement successful and de-escalate the crisis,” helium said.

Syed said that economical incentives, including aid, successful speech for compliance with ceasefire provisions could beryllium 1 mode to get the neighbours to debar a full-fledged subject conflict.

This is simply a instrumentality Trump has utilized successful caller months successful different wars, including successful getting Thailand and Cambodia to halt warring aft borderline clashes. The US president oversaw the signing of a bid woody betwixt the Southeast Asian nations successful Kuala Lumpur past weekend.

Afghan Defence Minister Mullah Mohammad Yaqoob Mujahid and Pakistani Defence Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif shingle hands pursuing the signing of a ceasefire agreement, during negotiations successful Doha, Qatar, October 19, 2025 [Handout/Qatar Ministry of Foreign Affairs via Reuters]

Unintended consequences

While Pakistan has acold superior subject capabilities, the Taliban has advantages, too, accidental analysts, cautioning against overconfidence connected the portion of Islamabad.

Yousafzai argued that the situation with Pakistan had helped bolster home enactment for the Taliban, and subject enactment against it could further elevate sympathy for the group.

“The effect by the Afghan Taliban of attacking the Pakistani subject connected [the] borderline was seen arsenic a forceful response, expanding their popularity. And adjacent if Pakistan continues to bomb, it could extremity up sidesplitting guiltless civilians, starring to much resentment and anti-Pakistani sentiment successful [the] nationalist and among [the] Afghan Taliban,” helium said.

This dynamic, according to Yousafzai, should beryllium worrying for Islamabad, peculiarly if the Taliban’s ultimate leader, Haibatullah Akhunzada, steps in.

“If Akhunzada issues an edict, declaring Jihad against Pakistan, galore young Afghans could perchance articulation the ranks of [the] Taliban,” Yousafzai warned. “Even if it volition mean a bigger nonaccomplishment for Afghans, the concern volition not beryllium bully for Pakistan.”

The lone beneficiary, helium said, would beryllium the TTP, which volition consciousness adjacent much emboldened “to motorboat attacks against the Pakistani military”.