Lebanon, Iran’s delicate diplomacy amid calls to disarm Hezbollah

This week’s sojourn to Lebanon of elder Iranian person Ali Larijani, caput of the Supreme National Security Council, is seen arsenic an effort to creaseless immoderate feathers ruffled by rhetoric from Tehran astir Hezbollah’s disarmament.

In aboriginal August, the Lebanese government, under unit from the United States, announced that it would question to disarm Hezbollah, agelong considered a main state of Tehran, by the extremity of the year.

The radical reacted angrily to the telephone to disarm with its secretary-general, Naim Qassem, denouncing the thought connected Friday and saying the Lebanese authorities “does not person the close to question the resistance’s legitimacy”.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said successful an interrogation past week: “We enactment immoderate determination the radical makes, but we bash not intervene.”

“This is not the archetypal clip they’ve tried to portion Hezbollah of its weapons,” helium said. “The crushed is clear: The powerfulness of absorption has proven itself successful the field.”

His comments were received angrily successful Beirut. Foreign Minister Youssef Rajji – who is from the anti-Hezbollah, right-wing Lebanese Forces enactment – said Araghchi’s connection is “firmly rejected and condemned”.

“Such statements undermine Lebanon’s sovereignty, unity and stableness and represent an unacceptable interference successful its interior matters and sovereign decisions,” Rajji said.

Hezbollah and Iran person emerged bruised from abstracted conflicts with Israel successful November and June, respectively. Now, Beirut’s instruction for Hezbollah to disarm risks further undermining the relevance of the radical astatine a captious time, analysts said.

Who decides?

Many analysts judge the determination connected whether to clasp oregon relinquish its arms whitethorn not beryllium Hezbollah’s alone.

”Hezbollah does not person implicit state of enactment successful this regard,” HA Hellyer of the Royal United Services Institute told Al Jazeera, referencing the group’s adjacent ties with Iran.

“But it doesn’t enactment simply arsenic a proxy for Tehran and is successful the midst of a alternatively challenging play of its existence, particularly fixed the surrounding geopolitics of the region,” helium said of the determination upheavals since Israel began its warfare connected Gaza successful October 2023 and launched consequent assaults connected Lebanon and Syria.

Those assaults inflicted important harm connected Lebanon, principally successful the confederate Beirut suburbs and confederate Lebanon, wherever Hezbollah’s enactment basal is located.

Lebanon was already locked into an economical situation earlier Israel’s war, and the World Bank estimated successful May that it would present need $11bn to rebuild. The cardinal authorities would beryllium liable for distributing that money, giving it immoderate power implicit Hezbollah.

A pistillate holds a flyer of precocious Hezbollah leaders Hassan Nasrallah, right, and his successor Hashem Safieddine, some killed by Israel [File: Mahmoud Zayyat/AFP]

“Tehran volition beryllium precise opposed to Hezbollah disarming,” Hellyer said. “But if Hezbollah decides it needs to, to sphere its governmental position, Tehran can’t veto.”

He besides suggested that Tehran whitethorn spot immoderate of its allied groups successful Iraq, which Larijani visited earlier Beirut, much favourably now, particularly since the autumn of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad successful December severed its onshore proviso routes to Lebanon.

“Hezbollah is, of course, precise important to Iran, but I deliberation the Iraqi militia groups are becoming much so, peculiarly aft the nonaccomplishment of Assad,” Hellyer said.

A menace and a provocation

Hezbollah has agelong been considered the astir almighty nonstate equipped histrion successful the Middle East, a invaluable state for Iran and a nemesis for Israel.

“Hezbollah has ever been a menace and a provocation, depending connected wherever you’re standing,“ said Nicholas Blanford, a nonresident elder chap astatine the Atlantic Council and an authorization connected Hezbollah.

“It’s inactive both, though to a overmuch lesser degree,” helium added, noting the harm the radical sustained from Israel’s attacks and the assassinations of its enactment successful the build-up to and during Israel’s warfare connected Lebanon successful October and November.

“It’s wide that Iran wants Hezbollah to stay arsenic it is and, arsenic acold arsenic we tin tell, is helping it reorganise its ranks.

“It’s besides wide from their statements that Hezbollah has nary volition of giving up its arms. Even comparatively mean figures wrong the radical are comparing doing truthful to suicide.”

In his code connected Friday, Qassem’s rejection was unequivocal: “The absorption volition not disarm truthful agelong arsenic the aggression continues and the concern persists.

“If necessary, we volition combat a Karbala’i conflict to face this Israeli-American project, nary substance the costs, and we are definite we volition win,” helium said, referencing the Battle of Karbala, venerated by Shia Muslims arsenic a foundational conflict against tyranny and oppression.

Qassem seemed to exclude the Lebanese subject from his ire, informing the government: “Do not embroil the nationalist service successful this conflict. … It has a spotless grounds and does not privation [this].”

Inside the tent

Larijani’s sojourn connected Wednesday was seen arsenic a imaginable accidental for Beirut to unfastened up caller lines of connection with 1 of the region’s astir important actors, Tehran, and perchance find what Iran mightiness beryllium consenting to see successful instrumentality for Hezbollah’s aboriginal disarmament.

During the warfare connected Lebanon, Israel inflicted the astir harm successful areas wherever Hezbollah’s supporters live, successful the southbound of the state and the capital, similar the confederate municipality of Shebaa, shown connected November 27, 2024 [Ramiz Dallah/Anadolu]

“It’s not imaginable for Lebanon to interruption relations betwixt the Shia assemblage and Iran, immoderate much than it could the Sunni assemblage and Saudi Arabia,” Michael Young of the Carnegie Middle East Center said.

“Iran is simply a large determination actor. It has a beardown narration with 1 of [the two] largest communities successful the country,” helium said of Lebanon’s ample Shia community.

“You can’t chopped ties. It doesn’t marque sense. You privation Iranians wrong the tent, not outside.”

Given the precarity of Lebanon’s position, balanced betwixt the US enactment it relies upon and the determination alliances it needs, Young suggested that Lebanese lawmakers nevertheless question an accidental to unafraid immoderate benignant of mediate crushed portion accepting that immoderate successful Beirut whitethorn not beryllium consenting to countenance immoderate negotiations with Iran.

“It’s important for the Lebanese to spot if determination are openings successful the Iranian position,” Young continued, casting Larijani’s sojourn arsenic a imaginable accidental for the Lebanese authorities to power Iran’s presumption connected Hezbollah’s future.

“And this is thing Larijani’s visit, if good exploited, could provide,” helium said, “It’s important for the Lebanese to spot if the Iranians suggest thing successful the aboriginal oregon if they amusement a willingness to compromise connected behalf of Hezbollah.”