M23-DR Congo peace talks in Doha stalled: What next?

The rebel radical M23 and the authorities of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) person failed to motion a last bid accord scheduled for Monday aft the rebels accused the Congolese service of breaking an earlier statement intended to pb to a afloat bid deal.

Monday’s scheduled talks were portion of a bid of negotiations mediated by Qatar. Both sides were required to beryllium successful Doha to motion what was expected to beryllium a concluding bid pact.

However, the M23 announced connected Sunday, the eve of the signing, that its representatives were not successful Doha arsenic agreed, raising fears among analysts that the talks mightiness beryllium derailed altogether.

On Monday, the radical appeared to locomotion backmost its decision, promising to nonstop representatives successful the coming days.

The DRC has been mired successful struggle with the Rwanda-backed M23 for respective years. In December 2023, the equipped radical merged with different militia, the Congo River Alliance (AFC), and is besides referred to arsenic AFC-M23.

Fighting escalated importantly successful January aft the radical seized immense swaths of territory successful mineral-rich eastbound DRC, including the determination capital, Goma. Despite agreeing to unafraid peace, unit has continued connected the ground, with much than 300 radical killed successful an battle past week.

Here’s what to cognize astir the M23, who backs them, and the Doha bid agreement:

What is the Doha bid agreement?

It’s an statement betwixt the M23 and, to a lesser extent, Rwanda, connected the 1 hand, and the DRC connected the other. Rwanda is accused of backing the rebels by Kinshasa, a United Nations Expert Group, and the United States.

Several bid deals person been mediated by the DRC and Rwanda’s neighbours, including Angola and Kenya, but nary person managed to hold.

In March, Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani successful Doha hosted a meeting betwixt Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi and his Rwandan counterpart Paul Kagame, whereafter some leaders called for a ceasefire. Since then, consequent talks person been held with the DRC and the M23.

Separately, the US, successful June, brokered a ceasefire statement betwixt the 2 countries’ overseas ministers successful Washington, but without the M23. In the deal, some countries agreed to enactment unneurotic connected a associated information commission, warrant the harmless instrumentality of displaced people, and cease enactment of non-state equipped groups. Rwandan troops, believed to person been warring with the M23 arsenic it escalated warring this year, were to withdraw.

Although the US-brokered woody and the Qatar-led talks are separate, they are tightly linked. Rwanda’s Kagame has said they are “both sides of the aforesaid coin”.

On July 19, the M23 and the DRC signed a preliminary “Declaration of Principles” successful Doha, promising to extremity warring and perpetrate to a broad bid deal. They agreed to speech captured prisoners and reconstruct authorities power successful rebel-controlled areas, Qatar’s curate of state, Mohammed bin Abdulaziz bin Saleh al-Khulaifi, told reporters. There’s nary study yet of a captive exchange, which is simply a precedence of the M23.

As per the declaration, negotiations were required to statesman connected August 8, and a last bid woody signing was acceptable for August 18.

Both sides seemed to construe the declaration separately, however. Although the DRC authorities said the woody meant the M23 would withdraw, rebel person Bertrand Bisimwa said successful a connection connected X that the declaration was “not a question of withdrawal but of mechanisms for empowering the state, enabling it to presume its prerogatives and obligations”.

“We are successful Goma with the colonisation and we are not going to get out,” Lawrence Kanyuka, M23 spokesperson, told The Associated Press quality agency.

The DRC government, meanwhile, has insisted connected the M23’s withdrawal. Officials accidental Kinshasa wants the contented of prisoners to beryllium negotiated arsenic portion of the last woody agreement, not arsenic a information for much talks.

A Rwandan constabulary serviceman opens a obstruction arsenic Congolese families displaced by ongoing clashes successful eastbound DRC instrumentality to the country, pursuing the takeover of the Congolese metropolis of Bukavu by M23 successful February 2025 [Luis Tato/AFP]

Why did the M23 stall the August 18 talks?

M23 rebels impeach the Congolese authorities of continuing to onslaught rebel positions, and assertion that Nzimbira and Kanyola successful South Kivu state were attacked with dense artillery and drones implicit the weekend.

In a Sunday connection connected X, Kanyuka said determination could beryllium nary negotiating without the DRC afloat honouring the earlier agreement, including releasing captives.

“The AFC/M23 hereby reaffirms its afloat committedness to the Doha Peace Process and emphasizes that lone the afloat implementation of the Declaration of Principles volition alteration the adjacent circular of talks to proceed, which should beryllium based connected the basal causes of the conflict,” his connection read.

On Tuesday, Bisimwa, the group’s head, appeared to locomotion backmost the earlier presumption and said successful a station connected X that “a method squad from our Movement volition question to Doha to reappraisal the applicable arrangements for the exertion of the ceasefire and the merchandise of prisoners successful accordance with said declaration.”

The Reuters quality agency, quoting an M23 official, said the radical was sending a squad owed to Qatar’s pressure, and did not expect overmuch from the talks. “Our delegation volition simply reenforce the request to instrumentality these measures earlier we tin prosecute successful negotiations,” the root is quoted arsenic saying.

There are nary nationalist records of the fig of M23 captives held by Kinshasa, but their merchandise appears pressing for the group. Since March, erstwhile the US brokered the archetypal talks, Rwanda appears to person reduced subject engagement successful the DRC, according to a study by the US-based Institute for the Study of War.

Analyst Nicodemus Minde of the Institute for Security Studies told Al Jazeera that the M23’s stalling could beryllium a strategical mode of pushing its demands for Kinshasa to merchandise captives. Ultimately, though, Minde added, “There’s a batch of unit to honour the agreements [in Washington and Doha]”, and that apt prompted the group’s astir turn.

Internally displaced radical permission the camps with their belongings, aft fleeing their homes owed to conflicts connected the outskirts of Goma, successful February 2025 [Stringer/EPA-EFE]

What is the M23, and who backs them?

The M23 rebels are the astir well-known militia among dozens of equipped groups warring for power successful the DRC’s east, which is abundant successful minerals.

Its fighters were primitively recruited successful the Congolese civilian wars and were aboriginal integrated into the military. However, successful 2012, immoderate 300 of them claimed they were being poorly treated successful the DRC service and formed the rebel group. They assertion to beryllium warring for the rights of Congolese Tutsis, who are of Rwandan descent and marque up a number successful the DRC.

Although the M23 was considerably pushed backmost by a conjugation of DRC subject and UN forces pursuing its offensives successful 2012, the radical resurfaced successful 2022, seemingly much equipped. In January this year, its fighters launched lightning offensives from their presumption successful the east, seizing respective towns and cities earlier capturing Goma and Bukavu, the capitals of North Kivu and South Kivu provinces, respectively. Some 3,000 radical were killed successful the battle, and hundreds of thousands were displaced.

In 2023, a UN Group of Experts study recovered that neighbouring Rwanda finances the group. The US besides accuses Kigali of the same. Rwanda nary longer denies the accusations but accuses the DRC of backing an anti-Kagame militia, the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR). Some 4,000 Rwandan troops reportedly fought alongside the M23 successful the eastbound DRC warfare earlier this year. Both countries person a analyzable rivalry that goes backmost to the Rwandan genocide and the Congo Wars that came after.

What has the DRC said?

The Congolese authorities did not straight respond to the M23’s accusations connected Sunday. In a connection connected X, spokesperson Patrick Muyaya reaffirmed that Kinshasa was committed “to the bid process and reiterates its dedication to the strict respect of the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the State successful accordance with the constitution”.

However, Congolese service spokesperson Sylvain Ekenge said successful a connection past week that the M23 launched  “multiple attacks” connected service positions successful the eastbound of the country. The attacks were “almost daily”, helium said, and signified an “intentional and wide violation” of the bid agreements signed successful Doha and Washington, DC.

The UN past week besides accused the M23 of sidesplitting astatine slightest 319 civilians, including children, successful Rutshuru, successful attacks successful the eastbound North Kivu province. UN Human Rights Chief Volker Turk called it 1 of the “largest documented decease tolls” since the M23’s resurgence successful 2022. He condemned the violence, stating: “All attacks against civilians indispensable halt immediately, and each those liable indispensable beryllium held to account.”

On the taxable of releasing M23 captives, an unnamed authorities root quoted by Reuters said the petition was a analyzable prerequisite. The DRC would alternatively it beryllium hashed retired successful negotiations, alternatively than beryllium a information to proceed the talks, the root said.

How has Qatar reacted?

Majed al-Ansari, a spokesperson of the Qatar overseas ministry, portion speaking to journalists connected Tuesday, said that though timelines had been missed, determination was inactive anticipation for the bid deal.

“The bully happening is that some sides are engaging precise positively,” helium said. “We are engaging with them closely, and we are committed to the process, and I deliberation the parties person shown a level of willingness to hold that was not determination before.”

The spokesperson did not, however, springiness a caller day for the signing of a bid deal.

Earlier, connected Monday, Qatari officials revealed that they had shared a draught of the last woody with some sides to review.