Merck tops quarterly estimates, posts modest 2026 guidance as generic competition looms

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Merck connected Tuesday reported fourth-quarter net and gross that topped estimates connected beardown request for its crab immunotherapy Keytruda and immoderate newer products. 

But the institution posted a humble 2026 outlook that fell abbreviated of Wall Street's expectations arsenic it prepares for a fewer drugs to suffer patent extortion aboriginal this twelvemonth and look generic competition. That includes Type 2 diabetes drugs, Januvia and Janumet, and Bridion, a attraction that helps reconstruct musculus relation that was blocked during surgery. 

While those medicines aren't top-selling products similar Keytruda, their combined little income volition apt unit the company. 

The pharmaceutical elephantine anticipates its 2026 gross volition travel successful betwixt $65.5 cardinal and $67 billion. Analysts expected gross of $67.6 billion, according to LSEG. 

Merck besides expects adjusted net to travel successful betwixt $5 and $5.15  per share. That compares to analysts' estimation of $5.36 per share, according to LSEG.

That scope includes a one-time complaint of astir $9 billion, oregon astir $3.65 per share, related to Merck's acquisition of Cidara, a biotech institution that is processing a flu prevention drug. 

The guidance includes "manageable impacts" from the cause pricing woody Merck struck with President Donald Trump successful December, arsenic good arsenic his administration's caller determination to pare backmost the pediatric vaccine docket successful the U.S., according to a institution spokesperson.

Under that "most favored nation" deal, Merck volition voluntarily merchantability its existing treatments to Medicaid patients astatine the lowest terms offered successful different developed nations and warrant that pricing for caller medicine, among different efforts. In exchange, Merck volition get a three-year reprieve from tariffs.

Here's what Merck reported for the 4th fourth compared with what Wall Street was expecting, based connected a survey of analysts by LSEG: 

  • Earnings per share: $2.04 adjusted vs. $2.01 expected
  • Revenue: $16.4 cardinal vs. $16.19 cardinal expected

The institution posted nett income of $2.96 billion, oregon $1.19 per share, for the quarter. That compares with nett income of $3.74 billion, oregon $1.48 per share, for the year-earlier period. 

Excluding acquisition and restructuring costs, Merck earned $2.04 per stock for the 4th quarter.

Merck raked successful $16.4 cardinal successful gross for the quarter, up 5% from the aforesaid play a twelvemonth ago.

The results travel arsenic Merck slashes $3 cardinal successful costs by the extremity of 2027, and prepares to offset gross losses from the upcoming patent expiration of Keytruda successful 2028.

Keytruda drives maturation amid Gardasil woes

Merck's pharmaceutical unit, which develops a wide scope of drugs, booked $14.84 cardinal successful gross during the 4th quarter. That's up 6% from the aforesaid play a twelvemonth earlier.

Sales of Keytruda topped $8.37 cardinal for the quarter, rising 7% from the aforesaid play a twelvemonth ago. Analysts were expecting gross of $8.35 billion, according to StreetAccount estimates. 

The summation successful Keytruda gross was driven by higher uptake of the cause for earlier-stage cancers and beardown request for the attraction for metastatic cancers, which dispersed to different parts of the body, the institution said. 

Sales of the much convenient subcutaneous mentation of Keytruda, which won support past year, came successful astatine $35 cardinal during the 4th quarter. 

That mentation of Keytruda is cardinal to Merck's efforts to offset apt declines successful gross aft the archetypal formulation of the drug, which is administered intravenously, goes disconnected patent. 

Meanwhile, Merck's newer cause Winrevair, which is utilized to dainty a rare, deadly lung condition, recorded $467 cardinal successful income for the quarter, up 133% from the aforesaid play a twelvemonth ago. 

Analysts had expected the medicine to bring successful $459 million, according to StreetAccount estimates. 

The maturation of Winrevair, which archetypal entered the marketplace successful mid-2024, mostly reflects higher uptake successful the U.S. and its aboriginal motorboat successful immoderate planetary markets.

Merck continued to spot occupation with China income of Gardasil, a vaccine that prevents crab from HPV, the astir communal sexually transmitted corruption successful the U.S.

In February, Merck announced it would halt shipments of Gardasil into China opening that month. In July, CFO Caroline Litchfield said the institution would not resume shipments to China done astatine slightest the extremity of 2025, noting that inventories stay precocious and request is inactive soft.

Gardasil generated income of $1.03 cardinal for the quarter, down 34% from the aforesaid play a twelvemonth agone owed to little request successful China. Still, that was successful enactment with what analysts were expecting, according to StreetAccount.

Gardasil's gross could look much unit successful 2026. As portion of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's changes to the pediatric vaccine schedule, the bureau said that children should get 1 dose of the HPV vaccine alternatively of the 2 to 3 doses recommended connected the label.

Merck's carnal wellness division, which develops vaccines and medicines for dogs, cats and cattle, posted astir $1.51 cardinal successful sales, up 8% from the aforesaid play a twelvemonth prior. The institution said that reflects higher request crossed each species. 

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