'Moana 2'-led Thanksgiving box office could be best in post-pandemic era

The home container bureau is poised for its biggest Thanksgiving haul since the pandemic acknowledgment to a Polynesian princess, a brace of witches and a revenge-fueled gladiator.

Disney's "Moana 2" is acceptable to deed theaters Wednesday and make betwixt $120 cardinal and $150 cardinal successful container bureau receipts successful the U.S. and Canada done Sunday. It'll beryllium joined by Universal's "Wicked" and Paramount's "Gladiator II," both successful their 2nd week of home screenings.

Box bureau analysts judge the five-day Thanksgiving weekend, which runs from Wednesday to Sunday, should easy wide $200 cardinal successful summons income and could adjacent go the second- oregon third-highest Thanksgiving play successful cinematic history.

"The trifecta of 'Moana 2,' 'Wicked,' and 'Gladiator II' is simply a bona fide cleanable tempest for movie theaters this Thanksgiving," said Shawn Robbins, manager of analytics astatine Fandango and laminitis of Box Office Theory. "The vacation utilized to regularly spot large releases combining for all-audience appeal, but that's been a situation for the manufacture to replicate successful the post-pandemic epoch truthful far. This twelvemonth is overmuch antithetic with specified a beatified trinity of tentpole releases that could anchor immoderate of the biggest all-around container bureau results the vacation framework has ever seen."

The Thanksgiving vacation haul hasn't topped $200 cardinal since 2019, according to information from Comscore. Currently, the highest-grossing Thanksgiving play is 2018's slate led by "Ralph Breaks the Internet," "Creed II" and "Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald," which combined generated $315 cardinal successful summons sales. The second-highest haul for the vacation play was the $294.2 cardinal secured during the aforesaid five-day play successful 2013.

"Thanksgiving is arguably the astir important vacation play of the twelvemonth for movie theaters arsenic it sets the code for the year-end container bureau sprint," said Paul Dergarabedian, elder media expert astatine Comscore. "The spot of the last fewer weeks of the twelvemonth volition find the full yearly container bureau gross and its cognition arsenic either a triumph oregon a nonaccomplishment for the industry."

And, Disney could usage different animation win.

After ruling the Thanksgiving container office for years with titles from Pixar and Disney Animation, it's failed to unrecorded up to expectations with its caller drawstring of releases.

In 2016, "Moana" opened implicit the Thanksgiving holiday, generating $82.1 million. The pursuing twelvemonth "Coco" took successful $72.9 cardinal during its opening, and past successful 2018 "Ralph Breaks the Internet" tallied $84.8 cardinal during its debut implicit the five-day period. Just earlier the pandemic successful 2019, "Frozen II" added $125 cardinal implicit the Thanksgiving vacation aft opening the week earlier to implicit $130 million.

Meanwhile, "Encanto," which arrived during the midst of the pandemic, managed to tally $40.6 cardinal successful 2021. "Strange World" flopped, having scooped up conscionable $18.9 cardinal during the vacation play successful 2022, and "Wish" snared a meager $31.6 cardinal successful 2023. No Disney animated movie was released implicit Thanksgiving successful 2020.

"Moana 2" should outperform these post-pandemic releases, however. It arrives successful theaters a twelvemonth aft the archetypal movie was named the top-streamed movie aimed astatine kids and families. And, audiences came retired successful droves for Disney and Pixar's "Inside Out 2" implicit the summer. "Inside Out 2" opened to $154.2 cardinal domestically and tallied much than $1 cardinal globally during its afloat run.

Disclosure: Comcast is the genitor institution of NBCUniversal, CNBC and Fandango. NBCUniversal distributed "Wicked."