Moscow’s narrative wobbles as Ukraine takes back Kupiansk

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Ukrainian subject successes and Russian narratives clashed this week, arsenic Moscow’s assertion of inevitable triumph flew successful the look of facts connected the ground.

Ukraine steadily took backmost power of astir each of its bluish metropolis of Kupiansk aft isolating Russian forces wrong it, belying Russian claims to person seized it.

Russian forces were besides incapable to dislodge Ukrainian defenders from the eastbound metropolis of Pokrovsk to backmost up Moscow’s claims of full control.

And Moscow attempted to contradict Ukraine’s palmy usage of an underwater unmanned conveyance to severely harm a Kilo-class submarine, contempt ocular evidence.

Ukrainian forces operating successful the bluish Kharkiv portion said they had chopped Russian logistics to Kupiansk, surrounded a vanguard of 200 Russians wrong it, and cleared Russian forces retired of forests northbound of the metropolis connected December 12.

Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces advancing successful the metropolis the pursuing time and taking backmost the confederate suburb of Yuvileynyi, pushing Russian troops to the bluish and occidental suburbs.

The Russian presumption had go much precarious by Monday. Ukrainian forces said they prevented reinforcements from entering the metropolis done a state pipeline, a maneuver Russia had utilized successful the siege of Chasiv Yar, and the isolated Russian troops were being supplied solely by drone. Ukraine’s General Staff said its forces were inactive repelling Russian attacks connected Friday.

Russia’s Ministry of Defence insisted it had power of the situation. “Units of the Zapad Group of Forces workout reliable power implicit each districts of liberated Kupiansk,” it said connected Monday, claiming that Ukraine’s efforts to participate the metropolis from the southbound were being suppressed.

“The lone happening that tin beryllium said for definite is that the Russian Armed Forces are inactive holding portion of the centre and northbound of Kupiansk, but astir of it is already either successful the grey portion oregon nether the power of the Armed Forces of Ukraine,” wrote a Russian subject newsman connected the Telegram messaging app.

On Wednesday this week, Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskii, Ukraine’s Army commander-in-chief, told a Ramstein-format of Ukraine’s allies that his forces had taken backmost 90 percent of Kupiansk. At the aforesaid clip successful Moscow, Russian Defence Minister Andrei Belousov was telling Russian President Vladimir Putin that “the force is unsuccessfully trying to regain” the city.

“The Russian Defense Minister, Belousov, continues to prevarication that Russia controls Kupiansk,” wrote Andrii Kovalenko, caput of Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation, connected Telegram. “In reality, astir of the metropolis is controlled by the Ukrainian Defense Forces, which are continuing to wide it of Russians. However, each of Putin’s officials, from [commander-in-chief Valery] Gerasimov, who was the archetypal to prevarication astir controlling the city, to Belousov, proceed to prevarication successful the beingness of Putin himself.”

Contrary to the disposable evidence, Belousov besides insisted that Russia had seized Pokrovsk, which Russia calls Krasnoarmeysk, and was connected the cusp of vanquishing neighbouring Myrnohrad, which Russia calls Dimitrov. Both towns are successful the eastbound Donetsk region, and are astir surrounded by Russian forces to the north, southbound and east.

“Russian soldiers proceed to inflict occurrence harm connected Ukrainian troops successful Dimitrov, the past stronghold of the Armed Forces of Ukraine successful Krasnoarmeysk agglomeration,” Belousov told Putin.

But Syrskii told allies that Ukrainian forces had regained astir 16 quadrate kilometres (6 quadrate miles) successful the bluish portion of Pokrovsk and 56sq km (22sq miles) westbound of the city. “Logistics successful Myrnograd are complex, but the operations continue,” helium wrote.

Russia had claimed implicit power implicit Pokrovsk connected December 2 and was sticking to its story.

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Submarine and lipid refinery explosions

A 3rd constituent of contention was Ukraine’s palmy usage of an underwater unmanned conveyance (UUV) to onslaught a Russian Kilo-class submarine connected Monday (December 15), successful what is considered the archetypal specified onslaught successful subject history.

Video of the Russian fleet astatine anchor successful the larboard of Novorossiysk connected the Black Sea shows a immense detonation successful the stern conception of the submarine.

Ukraine’s State Security Service aboriginal claimed recognition for the attack.

However, Russia’s Defence Ministry said: “Not a azygous vessel oregon submarine arsenic good arsenic the crews of the Black Sea Fleet stationed successful the bay of the Novorossiysk naval basal were damaged arsenic a effect of the sabotage.”

The ministry published footage of what it said was the attacked submarine, successful which it appeared undamaged supra the surface, but the video did not amusement the stern section.

Ukraine’s long-range strikes against Russia scored different successes, connected which Russia did not comment.

Ukraine struck the lipid refinery successful Yaroslavl, northeast of Moscow, on December 12. On Sunday, Ukrainian drones struck the Afipsky refinery successful Krasnodar Krai and the Uryupinsk lipid depot successful Volgograd, causing explosions successful some locations. They besides struck the Dorogobuzhskaya powerfulness works successful Smolensk.

United States and Ukrainian negotiating teams met for 2 days successful Berlin connected Sunday and Monday. Russian officials said they would beryllium briefed adjacent week connected the results of those talks.

But adjacent arsenic it claimed to beryllium funny successful ongoing peace negotiations, Russia intelligibly signalled that it plans to proceed assertive operations adjacent year.

“The cardinal task for the adjacent twelvemonth is to support and summation the gait of the offensive,” said Belousov successful Putin’s beingness connected Wednesday, astatine an expanded gathering of the Defence Ministry Board.

“It wasn’t america who started the warfare successful 2022; it was the destructive forces successful Ukraine, with the enactment of the West – essentially, the West itself that unleashed this war,” Putin said. “We are lone trying to decorativeness it, to enactment an extremity to it.”

Putin said “the goals of the peculiar subject cognition volition surely beryllium achieved,” and “Russia volition execute the liberation of its humanities lands by subject means,” suggesting determination was small country for compromise connected Moscow’s side.

Putin’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov signalled the aforesaid happening successful an interrogation with ABC connected Tuesday. He said Europe and Ukraine expected a “deep and precise wrong” revision of Russian bid proposals, and ruled retired conceding seized Ukrainian land.

“We are not capable successful immoderate signifier to compromise connected this, due to the fact that it would be, successful our view, a revision of a precise cardinal constituent of our statehood, acceptable distant done our constitution,” Naryshkin said.

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Russian losses outpace recruitments

Russia has attempted to springiness the content that it has inexhaustible manpower with which to prosecute the warfare it started successful Ukraine.

Belousov said astir 410,000 Russians volunteered for subject service, exceeding expectations for 2025.

That translates to 32,800 per month. “Data from the Ukrainian General Staff connected Russian losses bespeak that Russian forces suffered an mean of 34,600 casualties per period betwixt January and November 2025 – suggesting that Belousov’s recruitment numbers are not rather replacing Russian losses,” wrote the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based deliberation tank.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy suggested astir of these casualties were deaths. “[Putin] spends astir 30,000 soldiers’ lives connected the beforehand each month. Not wounded – 30,000 killed each month… We person drone footage confirming these deaths,” helium told Dutch parliamentarians.

Syrski besides doubted Russian recruitment quotas were sufficient.

“The fig of Russian troops has agelong been astir 710,000,” helium wrote connected Telegram. “However, the force has not been capable to summation this figure, contempt progressive recruitment successful Russia, due to the fact that our soldiers are ‘reducing’ the fig of occupiers by a 1000 each time done deaths and injuries.”