‘New Normal’: Is Pakistan trying to set new red lines with Afghan Taliban?

Islamabad, Pakistan – When Pakistan’s overseas minister, Ishaq Dar, visited Kabul successful April and met his Afghan Taliban counterpart, Amir Khan Muttaqi, analysts viewed the juncture arsenic marking a reset of relations amid the expanding hostilities betwixt the 2 erstwhile allies.

Subsequent meetings betwixt the 2 successful May and August, brokered by China, reinforced that sentiment.

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But a deadly weekend of clashes on the countries’ porous borderline has enactment those diplomatic overtures connected hold. Islamabad says it killed much than 200 Taliban fighters; the Taliban authorities says 58 Pakistani soldiers were killed. The decease toll connected some sides underscores however fragile the détente earlier successful the twelvemonth was.

Pakistan, which has been grappling with a melodramatic surge successful attacks – particularly successful the northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, wherever dozens of subject unit person died – accuses the Taliban of giving sanctuary to equipped groups that motorboat cross-border attacks.

The Taliban denies those charges. But connected Thursday night, Kabul was rocked by explosions and gunfire. Pakistan neither confirmed nor denied involvement, but the Taliban authorities said Pakistan had been down the attacks successful Kabul and successful an eastbound Afghan province, and promised retaliation.

Fighting flared again connected Saturday night. Pakistan acknowledged that the clashes near astatine slightest 23 of its soldiers dormant and different 29 injured, and said its forces had taken power of much than 21 posts connected Afghan territory. Kabul has not confirmed the Taliban’s casualty figures.

That contiguous subject escalation has passed, but the clashes person evoked parallels with Pakistan’s tense caller equation with its eastbound neighbour, India, aft New Delhi blamed Islamabad for the sidesplitting of 26 civilians successful Indian-administered Kashmir successful April.

Like the Taliban’s presumption connected anti-Pakistan equipped groups ostensibly operating from Afghan soil, Islamabad, too, rejected immoderate nexus with the attackers successful Indian-administered Kashmir. But conscionable arsenic Islamabad has agelong accused the Taliban of sheltering groups that onslaught Pakistan, India has, for decades, alleged that Pakistan supports and sponsors “terrorist” groups that people its territory.

Now, immoderate analysts say, Pakistan is trying to found a “new normal” with the Taliban, by making wide that aboriginal attacks connected its ungraded could invitation retribution wrong Afghanistan. The stance mirrors a presumption India’s Narendra Modi authorities took against Pakistan successful April, and that Islamabad protested against astatine the time.

India launched strikes wrong Pakistani territory successful May, resulting successful a four-day-long conflict, with some sides utilizing missiles, drones and artillery to onslaught each other.

This shifting scenery betwixt Pakistan and Afghanistan suggests, analysts say, that portion the warring implicit the play mightiness person eased, tensions are apt to simmer successful the coming weeks, and a lasting breakthrough remains elusive.

Trigger down the borderline clashes

Out of the assorted equipped groups reportedly operating from Afghanistan, Pakistani authorities respect the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) arsenic the biggest threat. The TTP emerged successful 2007 amid the United States-led, alleged “war connected terror”, and has for years waged an equipped run against Islamabad.

It seeks to instrumentality strict Islamic law, has demanded the merchandise of imprisoned members, and calls for a reversal of the merger of Pakistan’s erstwhile tribal areas with the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province.

The TTP is autarkic of Afghanistan’s Taliban, but the 2 groups are ideologically aligned.

Islamabad blames Kabul for allowing sanctuary for the TTP, arsenic good arsenic different groups specified arsenic the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) and Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP).

TTP attacks person accrued sharply since the Taliban returned to powerfulness successful Afghanistan successful August 2021, and numbers item the expanding trend.

“Our information amusement that the TTP engaged successful astatine slightest 600 attacks against, oregon clashes with, information forces successful the past twelvemonth alone. Its enactment successful 2025 truthful acold already exceeds that seen successful each of 2024,” a caller study by the US-based Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) task said.

In the past fewer days, several attacks person killed much than 2 twelve Pakistani soldiers, including officers, with the latest specified incidental connected October 8.

Regional powers – including China, Iran and Russia – person repeatedly urged the Taliban to destruct the TTP and different equipped groups operating from Afghanistan. That telephone was renewed astatine the Moscow Format consultation successful aboriginal October, which was besides attended by Muttaqi, the Taliban overseas minister.

Abdul Basit, a student of militancy and a probe chap astatine Singapore’s S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, said helium expects much diplomacy successful the coming days, led by countries that person beardown ties with some the Taliban and Pakistan, specified arsenic Gulf nations oregon China.

“I deliberation it is plausible that Islamabad and Kabul volition clasp different circular of meetings successful immoderate 3rd state to re-engage successful dialogue, but I judge that tensions volition proceed to simmer, sometimes going up oregon sometimes going down. We surely cannot regularisation retired different circular of hostilities astatine the border,” helium told Al Jazeera.

Seema Ilahi Baloch, a erstwhile Pakistani ambassador who has been progressive successful informal Pakistan-Afghanistan talks successful the past, said that Islamabad had truthful acold failed to transportation the Taliban to forestall Afghanistan from being utilized arsenic a basal for attacks against Pakistan.

“Both sides indispensable realise that specified conflicts undermine bilateral practice and negatively interaction determination stability,” she said. “China, which has power successful some Pakistan and Afghanistan, tin beryllium the interlocutor to mend fences betwixt the 2 done diplomacy,” she added.

(Al Jazeera)

Islamabad’s caller normal?

Still, analysts accidental it is becoming progressively hard for Pakistan’s officials to disregard the mounting decease toll successful the state from attacks that Islamabad alleges person originated successful Afghanistan.

The Centre for Research and Security Studies (CRSS), an Islamabad-based deliberation tank, enactment the fig of deaths of Pakistan’s information unit astatine much than 2,400 successful the archetypal 3 quarters of this year, which is connected way to go the deadliest twelvemonth successful a decade.

Basit said that Islamabad is trying to specify a caller mean successful which immoderate onslaught believed to person originated successful Afghanistan – whether by the TTP oregon different radical – volition transportation a outgo for Kabul.

“Any onslaught which emanates from Afghanistan volition beryllium responded [to] with [the] aforesaid ferocity connected their territory, with Pakistan implying that Afghan Taliban are facilitating specified attacks successful Pakistan, and frankincense are morganatic targets,” helium said.

Basit acknowledged that Pakistan’s caller attack appears akin to what New Delhi adopted against Islamabad aft the April onslaught successful Indian-administered Kashmir, but said determination was a cardinal difference. Regardless of the casualties connected some sides of the Afghanistan-Pakistan borderline during the past weekend’s clashes, the subject asymmetry betwixt the 2 sides is significant, dissimilar the script betwixt India and Pakistan.

He pointed to Pakistan’s quality to deed backmost against India’s attacks successful May: Pakistan was capable to sprout down respective Indian jets successful the process. The Taliban, however, though battle-hardened fighters who person a agelong past of repelling overseas powers, bash not person the instrumentality and grooming that Pakistan’s nonrecreational service does. “There is simply a difference,” Basit said.

Aamer Raza, an adjunct prof of governmental subject astatine the University of Peshawar, said determination was a increasing feeling wrong Pakistani argumentation circles that patience with Afghanistan was wearing bladed successful the Pakistani establishment.

“Although immoderate engagement is inevitable, large breakthroughs shouldn’t instantly beryllium expected. With Pakistan’s wide superiority successful aerial and projectile warfare, adjacent successful the past clashes, it could person inflicted greater harm connected Afghanistan, but it mostly refrained,” helium told Al Jazeera.

After the play clashes, Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, for the archetypal time, besides questioned the legitimacy of the Taliban authorities itself, adjacent though Islamabad was the movement’s main patron for a 4th of a century.

Pakistan demanded “concrete and verifiable actions against these violent elements by the Taliban regime” and urged a much inclusive government. “We besides anticipation that 1 day, the Afghan radical would beryllium emancipated, and they would beryllium governed by a existent typical government,” the statement read.

Baloch, the diplomat, downplayed that language, suggesting that Islamabad was simply calling for elections successful Afghanistan.

Basit, however, argued that the wording was significant. “This connection of the connection besides hints that Pakistan mightiness beryllium unfastened to the thought of throwing its enactment down anti-Taliban groups if the existent authorities continues to disregard Pakistan’s morganatic information concerns,” helium said.

The New Delhi factor

The weekend’s clashes besides coincided with Muttaqi’s archetypal sojourn to India. He is, successful fact, the archetypal elder Taliban person to question to New Delhi since the radical took power of Afghanistan 4 years ago.

Muttaqi received a impermanent United Nations-sanctions exemption to question for a week, from October 9 to 16, and met Indian Minister of External Affairs S Jaishankar.

Afghanistan’s interim overseas minister, Amir Khan Muttaqi is visiting India from October 9 to 16 for his maiden sojourn to the state aft the Taliban took implicit the state successful August 2021 [Elke Scholiers/Getty Images]

Kabul’s moves towards New Delhi besides correspond the culmination of months of diplomacy that Pakistan has watched closely.

From the mid-1990s until a fewer years ago, India viewed the Taliban arsenic a proxy for Pakistan’s quality agencies, and accused the radical and its allies of deadly attacks connected its diplomatic missions successful Afghanistan.

But since the radical returned to powerfulness successful Afghanistan, and amid rising Taliban-Pakistan tensions, India has engaged successful a bid of outreach efforts with Kabul’s caller leaders, starring to Muttaqi’s visit.

Islamabad continues to allege that New Delhi is fomenting occupation successful Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces, and that immoderate groups are funded oregon supported by New Delhi from Afghan territory, charges that India has consistently rejected.

Now, with tensions connected some its occidental and eastbound fronts, Islamabad needs to enactment cautious, said Baloch, the erstwhile ambassador.

“No state tin spend to unfastened warfare fronts connected each its borders, and that goes for Pakistan also,” she said.

Meanwhile, immoderate analysts person questioned Pakistan’s posture of neither accepting work for past Thursday’s explosions successful Afghanistan, nor denying a role.

This could harm Pakistan’s credibility if groups based successful Afghanistan onslaught Pakistan again, suggested Fahad Nabeel, who leads the Islamabad-based probe consultancy Geopolitical Insights.

“The main question volition beryllium wherefore Pakistani officials did not assertion work for the past alleged strikes [in Afghanistan, successful effect to attacks successful Pakistan]. If Pakistan simply uses the terrorism-threat narrative, critics volition inquire wherefore it did not instrumentality specified actions successful the past decade,” Nabeel told Al Jazeera.

However, Nabeel said that helium did not spot large parallels betwixt India’s effect to the April onslaught and Pakistan’s caller attack towards the Taliban. “The lone commonalities,” helium said, laic successful some India and Pakistan accusing its neighbours, Pakistan and Afghanistan, of not doing capable to halt UN-sanctioned individuals and groups from utilizing their ungraded to onslaught others.

Singapore-based Basit said that Pakistan’s aerial strikes during Muttaqi’s sojourn were apt intended to nonstop a message: that “Islamabad volition not hesitate to usage unit if it perceives collusion betwixt Kabul and New Delhi to undermine Pakistani security”.

However, similar Baloch, Basit besides acknowledged the limits of that posture. “No state tin spend a two-front war,” helium said.

Basit besides said that bigger questions astir Islamabad’s attack remained unanswered.

“What truly is the extremity crippled here?” helium asked.

“Are these strikes going to alteration the calculus of [the] Afghan Taliban to pushing them into enactment against the TTP, oregon volition it thrust them to forge a person nexus with [the] TTP?” helium asked.

“When you usage force, you are utilizing it to execute [a] definite goal, and the question is, what does Pakistan privation to execute with these aerial strikes?”