‘New phase’: India eyes Bangladesh thaw with BNP before elections

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New Delhi, India – Dressed successful achromatic for the occasion, India’s Foreign Minister S Jaishankar met Tarique Rahman, lad of the deceased erstwhile Bangladeshi Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, with sombre expressions connected their faces.

Khaleda had passed distant the erstwhile day, connected December 30, and Jaishankar was among a ample radical of determination leaders who had gathered successful Dhaka, the superior of Bangladesh, for her funeral.

Jaishankar handed Rahman, who has taken implicit the enactment of Khaleda’s Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), a missive from Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Then, successful a station connected X alongside photos of their meeting, Jaishankar wrote words that show a melodramatic interruption with New Delhi’s past narration with the BNP: “Conveyed deepest condolences connected behalf of the Government and radical of India. Expressed assurance that Begum Khaleda Zia’s imaginativeness and values volition usher the improvement of our partnership.”

For decades, India had been – astatine times, publicly, connected different occasions, privately – opposed to Khaleda’s “vision and values”.

Where for millions of her supporters successful Bangladesh, she represented a heroic conflict against subject regularisation successful the 1980s that archetypal brought her to powerfulness successful 1991, India viewed her with suspicion and distrust. For decades, the BNP had an confederation with Jamaat-e-Islami, Bangladesh’s largest Islamist radical that advocates for stronger ties with Pakistan, India’s arch-enemy. Meanwhile, India treated Khaleda’s rival, Sheikh Hasina, and her avowedly secular Awami League enactment arsenic its earthy partners.

But arsenic Bangladesh prepares for nationalist elections successful February, Jaishankar’s comments underscore however India and the BNP look to beryllium pivoting from their animus towards a person moving relationship.

Jaishankar’s “very cordial” gathering with Rahman and his squad of confidantes successful Dhaka presented the “potential of a caller signifier successful the bilateral relationship”, Humayun Kabir, overseas affairs advisor to Rahman, told Al Jazeera.

It’s a displacement that circumstances person forced connected some India and the Rahman-led BNP, accidental analysts.

A caller start?

Since the student-led July 2024 uprising toppled Sheikh Hasina’s 15-year rule, New Delhi’s decades-long enactment for the ousted person has prompted beardown anti-India sentiments connected Bangladeshi streets.

Hasina present lives successful exile successful New Delhi, and India has truthful acold refused to instrumentality her to Bangladesh to look the decease penalty, aft being convicted successful absentia by a tribunal connected charges related to the brutal crackdown by her information forces connected protesters past year. The United Nations estimates that astir 1,400 radical died successful the crackdown.

Bilateral relations person continued to descent further: After a 2024 protestation person who was vocally anti-India was murdered, protests against India picked up again successful Bangladesh. A Hindu Bangladeshi antheral was lynched. Both countries had to temporarily suspend visa services astatine their respective precocious commissions.

But Hasina’s Awami League is banned from participating successful the February elections. And immoderate analysts judge that the BNP is trying to inhabit the wide and centrist governmental abstraction vacated by the Awami League. It has besides breached up with the Jamaat – the Islamist radical has since partnered with a enactment formed by leaders of the 2024 pupil protestation movement, successful a formidable alliance.

The BNP and the Jamaat-led conjugation are seen arsenic the frontrunners competing to signifier the adjacent authorities aft the February elections. And portion India can’t reconcile with the Jamaat’s authorities – and its pro-Pakistan tilt – Rahman has successful caller days made statements that are acold much palatable to New Delhi.

Since returning to Dhaka successful precocious December aft 17 years successful exile, Rahman told supporters that helium wanted an inclusive Bangladesh, wherever minorities are safe.

His words suggest that Rahman has “matured during his years successful exile”, Harsh Vardhan Shringla, a erstwhile Indian overseas caput who has besides served arsenic precocious commissioner successful Dhaka, told Al Jazeera.

‘Mutual mistrust and animosity’

Like Rahman, the BNP itself has mostly been successful governmental exile since it was past successful powerfulness successful 2006 – the enactment and its leaders were archetypal targeted by an interim military-backed authorities and past by Hasina’s Awami League authorities with aggregate cases and arrests.

Its past stint successful bureau coincided successful ample portion with the past clip that Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party was successful power, betwixt 1998 and 2004. At the time, India’s premier curate was Atal Bihari Vajpayee.

Areas of contention betwixt the BJP-ruled India and BNP-ruled Bangladesh ranged from commercialized disputes, borderline disputes, stream h2o sharing, migration, equipped rebellion, and unit against minorities. New Delhi accused Bangladesh of allowing respective anti-India equipped fighters structure connected its terrain, and the contented became a major irritant successful bilateral relations.

India besides accused the BNP of pandering to Pakistani quality agencies. Dhaka denied these accusations.

“Essentially, the inheritance has been 1 of communal mistrust and animosity that is historic,” said Shringla, who is present a subordinate of the Indian parliament’s precocious house, nominated by Modi’s BJP.

“Under the BNP years [2001-2006], Bangladesh supported an anti-India enactment and became precise adjacent to Pakistan,” Shringla told Al Jazeera. “And [Tarique] Rahman was a premier mover successful that authorities and had disproportionate influence.”

‘Rahman is safest bet’

Yet calculations person changed.

When Khaleda was moved to a infirmary successful captious information successful precocious November, Modi was speedy to privation her a speedy recovery. The BNP responded, thanking him for the wishes.

“Rahman seems to recognize that for him to beryllium a palmy premier minister, helium needs India’s enactment – or, astatine the least, helium doesn’t privation India’s antagonism,” said Shringla. “Now, we person to spot whether his actions lucifer rhetoric.”

From India’s perspective, Rahman is present “saying each the close things”, said Sreeradha Datta, a prof specialising successful South Asian studies astatine India’s OP Jindal Global University.

Rahman’s evident popularity – hundreds of thousands gathered connected the streets of Dhaka to greet him erstwhile helium arrived from London – suggests that helium could bring a consciousness of stableness successful the neighbourhood, Datta told Al Jazeera.

Analysts accidental Rahman besides represents the “safest bet” for New Delhi going forward, compared with the Jamaat-led confederation and different governmental actors successful Bangladesh.

“India sees the pupil revolutionaries and the Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami arsenic the biggest threats to Indian interests,” said Jon Danilowicz, a erstwhile US diplomat who spent 8 years moving successful Bangladesh.

Rahman’s nationalist statements connected returning to Dhaka “have shown large maturity”, Danilowicz said.

The pre-poll interruption betwixt the Jamaat and the BNP besides gives New Delhi much assurance successful dealing with Rahman, said Michael Kugelman, a South Asia governmental analyst.

“There is simply a batch of baggage from the past, successful summation to the BNP’s longstanding confederation with Jamaat,” Kugelman told Al Jazeera. “For India, memories of that confederation dice hard.

“[Reaching retired to Rahman is] not thing that India volition bash happily, but thing that it feels that it volition request to bash simply by necessity,” helium said.

‘Rekindling people-to-people ties’

But photo-ops, handshakes, letters and sentiments of warmth unsocial whitethorn not beryllium capable to repair bilateral ties.

Rahman’s advisor Kabir cautioned that for a caller start, “there indispensable beryllium a cleanable interruption from the past.”

While India has insisted that its narration is with Bangladesh and not with immoderate enactment oregon person successful Dhaka, it was closest with Hasina and her Awami League party.

Unlike Hasina’s clip successful office, Dhaka was reduced to a “pet dog” of New Delhi, Kabir said. Rahman, if helium comes to power, would support Bangladesh equidistant from determination powers, similar India and China, and support “Bangladesh first”, Kabir added.

“Hasina utilized India successful a atrocious mode to legitimise her ain crimes successful Bangladesh, truthful radical person a precise bitter distaste for India,” Kabir said. He added that the “new Bangladesh” aft the July 2024 gyration sees Hasina arsenic a “terrorist”.

Kabir said Dhaka would proceed to property India for Hasina’s extradition if Rahman is elected to powerfulness successful February. “The onus to support this [bilateral] narration lies connected New Delhi, for keeping Hasina there,” helium said.

Hasina has publically criticised Bangladesh’s absorption nether the Yunus government, angering Dhaka. “India needs to determination connected from Hasina’s epoch and should not beryllium seen complicit with her rogue activities to destabilise Bangladesh, portion she sits successful India,” Kabir said. Otherwise, helium cautioned, “widespread anti-India distaste among radical makes it hard for the adjacent elected authorities to prosecute [with New Delhi] against the fashionable sentiment.”

Persistent tensions person besides played retired beyond the worlds of authorities and diplomacy successful caller days.

On Saturday, India’s cricketing body, which governs the fashionable Indian Premier League, asked the Kolkata Knight Riders franchise to driblet Bangladeshi pacer Mustafizur Rahman aft BJP leaders protested the player’s participation.

So what’s next?

Anil Trigunayat, a erstwhile Indian diplomat who served successful Bangladesh for 5 years, told Al Jazeera that if Rahman returns to powerfulness successful Dhaka, “India’s biggest situation would beryllium to support a cheque connected Pakistan and different anti-India militant groups being embedded successful Bangladesh.”

Danilowicz said helium agreed that India would harbour those concerns – fixed the BNP’s past leanings towards Pakistan, erstwhile the Jamaat was its ally.

But Kabir, Rahman’s adviser, said the BNP person was focused connected “improving and pushing cooperation” with India and different neighbours.

“The narration ne'er existed betwixt India and Bangladesh nether Sheikh Hasina; it was conscionable constricted to Hasina,” said Kabir. “Now, we request assurance that India means a alteration of absorption and is mounting its argumentation to really rekindle the narration betwixt the radical of Bangladesh and India.”

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