Pakistan seeks new South Asian bloc to cut India out: Will it work?

Pakistan Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar has said that a caller trilateral initiative betwixt Bangladesh, China and Islamabad could be “expanded” to see different determination nations and beyond.

“We person opposed … zero-sum approaches and consistently stressed the imperative of practice alternatively than confrontation,” helium told the Islamabad Conclave forum connected Wednesday.

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In effect, the connection amounts to the instauration of an alternate bloc focused connected South Asia, with China added, astatine a clip erstwhile the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) — the region’s main grouping — has been made astir defunct by heightened India-Pakistan tensions successful caller years.

In June, diplomats from China, Pakistan and Bangladesh held trilateral talks focusing connected determination stability, economical improvement and enhancing people’s lives, a practice they said was “not directed astatine immoderate 3rd party”.

Dar’s remarks travel against a backdrop of escalating determination tensions, including Pakistan’s decades-long rivalry with India. The 2 nuclear-armed neighbours fought a little four-day aerial warfare successful May, further straining relations.

Meanwhile, ties betwixt Dhaka and New Delhi person besides deteriorated sharply pursuing the ouster of erstwhile Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina successful August past year. Hasina fled to India aft being deposed successful a fashionable uprising, and New Delhi has truthful acold refused to nonstop the erstwhile PM backmost to Bangladesh, wherever she was convicted by a tribunal successful November of crimes against humanity and sentenced to death.

But volition astir different South Asian nations — SAARC consists of India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Maldives, Bhutan and Afghanistan — hold to a caller determination grouping that appears aimed astatine cutting India out, oregon astatine slightest limiting its influence?

Here is what you request to know:

What is Pakistan’s proposal?

Deputy Prime Minister Dar, who is besides Pakistan’s overseas minister, said the trilateral inaugural with Bangladesh and China aimed to “foster communal collaboration” successful areas of shared interest, and that the conception beryllium “expanded and duplicated” to see much countries and regions.

“As I person said before, determination could beryllium groups with adaptable geometry connected issues from system to exertion to connectivity,” helium told the conclave successful Islamabad.

“Our ain nationalist improvement needs and determination priorities cannot – and should not – beryllium held hostage to anyone’s rigidity, and you cognize wherever I americium referring to,” helium said, successful an evident notation to India.

On tensions betwixt Islamabad and New Delhi, Dar pointed retired that a “structured dialogue” process betwixt India and Pakistan has remained successful limbo “for implicit 11 years”, adding that different determination states person had their stock of a “seesaw narration with our neighbour India”.

The overseas curate said Pakistan envisions a South Asia wherever links and practice regenerate “divisions, economies turn successful synergy, disputes are resolved peacefully successful accordance with planetary legitimacy, and wherever bid is maintained with dignity and honour”.

According to world Rabia Akhtar, the connection astatine this signifier is apt “more aspirational than operational”.

“But it signals Pakistan’s intent to diversify and reimagine determination practice mechanisms astatine a clip erstwhile SAARC remains paralysed,” Akhtar, manager astatine the Centre for Security, Strategy and Policy Research (CSSPR) astatine the University of Lahore, told Al Jazeera.

What is the determination organisation SAARC?

SAARC was established successful 1985 astatine a acme successful Dhaka, Bangladesh.

Its 7 founding members were Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. Afghanistan joined to go the eighth subordinate successful 2007.

According to its website, the objectives of SAARC see improving the payment and prime of beingness of South Asians, generating economical maturation and taste development.

Despite its lofty ambitions, the organisation has struggled to execute its goals implicit the past 40 years, successful ample portion owed to the decades-long tensions betwixt India and Pakistan, who person fought 3 full-scale wars since their independency from the British successful 1947, which besides coincided with the partition of the subcontinent.

The 19th SAARC acme successful 2016, scheduled to beryllium hosted by Islamabad, was indefinitely postponed aft India pulled out, citing a deadly onslaught successful Indian-administered Kashmir and holding Pakistan responsible.

“The organisation requires statement to function, and without governmental willingness from the 2 largest members to abstracted determination practice from bilateral disputes, SAARC cannot determination forward,” CSSPR’s Akhtar said.

The past acme of the determination assemblage was held successful 2014 successful Kathmandu, Nepal. However, analysts accidental portion SAARC remains dormant, the organisation has imaginable to present for the portion — if India and Pakistan let it to.

Why is SAARC important?

As of 2025, SAARC countries marque up much than 2 cardinal of the world’s population, making South Asia the world’s astir densely populated region.

Yet, commercialized wrong South Asia is minimal, representing lone astir 5 percent of the region’s wide commerce, astir $23bn, the World Bank has said. By contrast, commercialized betwixt subordinate states of ASEAN, a bloc of 11 Southeast Asian nations location to astir 700 cardinal people, represents 25 percent of their planetary commerce, the Washington-based instauration noted.

South Asian nations could speech goods worthy $67bn – 3 times their existent commercialized – if they reduced barriers, the World Bank estimates.

Trade betwixt India and Pakistan, successful particular, remains dismal. In the fiscal twelvemonth 2017-2018, authoritative commercialized betwixt the 2 neighbours stood astatine a specified $2.41bn. It fell further, halving to $1.2bn by 2024 – though unofficial commercialized betwixt them, routed done different countries, is larger, astatine astir $10bn, experts say.

Lack of regional connectivity is cited arsenic 1 large crushed for the region’s anemic commercialized links.

In 2014, the grouping was poised to motion a Motor Vehicles Agreement that would person allowed cars and trucks to question crossed South Asia, arsenic they tin successful Europe. But Pakistan blocked that statement – and a abstracted 1 connected determination railway collaboration – amid tensions with India.

Since then, the grouping’s quality to travel unneurotic has been constricted to a fewer occasions, similar during the COVID-19 pandemic erstwhile subordinate states acceptable up an exigency money and acceptable speech $7.7bn to assistance tackle the nationalist wellness crisis.

“If the 2 countries [India and Pakistan] were capable to place adjacent constricted avenues for practice successful the work of broader determination interests, SAARC could, successful principle, beryllium revived,” expert Farwa Aamer told Al Jazeera.

“However, fixed existent governmental dynamics, specified a breakthrough appears to beryllium a distant prospect,” Aamer, manager of South Asia Initiatives astatine the Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI), added.

But Pakistan isn’t the archetypal to effort to sidestep SAARC to physique its determination partnerships. After SAARC failed to o.k. a determination transport pact, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal  – successful a grouping called the BBIN aft the state initials – inked a akin statement among themselves.

India is besides portion of different regional organisations similar the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC), Aamer pointed out. BIMSTEC includes India, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand.

Still, connected the whole, Aamer said, “bilateral and trilateral arrangements volition proceed to dominate” implicit “regional multilateralism” successful the “near to mean term”. That’s due to the fact that dealing with conscionable 1 oregon 2 countries astatine a clip tends “to connection much flexibility, clearer incentives and a greater likelihood of producing tangible outcomes,” she said.

Will Pakistan’s connection work?

Whether the connection works volition beryllium connected 2 factors, world Akhtar said.

“First, whether prospective states spot functional worth successful smaller, issue-focused groupings astatine a infinitesimal erstwhile accepted architectures are stalled; and second, whether information does not trigger governmental costs vis-a-vis India.”

Akhtar said respective South Asian countries whitethorn amusement tentative involvement successful Pakistan’s projected determination initiative, though immoderate determination towards ceremonial information is expected to stay limited.

“I deliberation countries similar Sri Lanka, Nepal, the Maldives, and possibly Bhutan whitethorn beryllium unfastened to exploratory engagement, peculiarly connected connectivity, clime adaptation and economical resilience,” she said.

However, Akhtar noted that India’s determination sensitivities and wider geopolitical rivalry with Pakistan and China “mean that existent rank uptake volition beryllium cautious”.

Nevertheless, ASPI’s Aamer believes Pakistan’s proposition was a “strategically coherent” one.

“The state is successful a infinitesimal of diplomatic agility,” she said, adding that “it has maintained beardown relations with China portion simultaneously cultivating renewed and improved ties with the United States and the Gulf”.

“This dual-track engagement has fixed Islamabad a consciousness of assurance and the ambition to reassert itself arsenic a important determination actor, essentially, to reclaim a spot astatine the centre of determination diplomacy.”