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Deir Az Zor, Syria – On the broad, windswept plains done which the Euphrates River snakes, the onshore remembers each warfare that has passed crossed it. The oil-rich ungraded of al-Omar, the turbines of the Tabqa Dam and the cautious instrumentality of families to towns agelong abandoned archer a communicative arsenic aged arsenic Syria itself: 1 of power, endurance and the conflict to unify a fractured country.
Over the weekend, Syrian authorities forces seized the al-Omar oilfield, the Conoco state analyzable – some successful Deir Az Zor governorate – and the Tabqa Dam, successful Raqqa governorate. The cognition was heralded arsenic a subject achievement, but its value reaches acold beyond maps and subject lines. It touches the precise operation of Syria’s governmental economy, the societal declaration betwixt authorities and national and the fragile architecture of agreements meant to reconcile formerly hostile actors.
And the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which antecedently controlled the areas arsenic good arsenic each of northeastern Syria, soon realised the concern they faced. By Sunday evening, Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa announced that a woody had been reached with the SDF.
“State institutions volition participate the 3 eastbound and northeastern governorates – Hasakah, Deir Az Zor and Raqqa,” al-Sharaa said.
Heartland scarred by war
In eastbound Syria, hydrocarbons person agelong been some a lifeblood and a operator of economical leverage.
Before the opening of the struggle successful 2011, lipid and state accounted for astir 20 percent of Syria’s gross home merchandise (GDP). During the war, these fields became the backbone of the fragmented warfare economy, exploited by equipped groups and redirected to enactment section militias. Reclaiming these fields is truthful much than symbolic – it is simply a prerequisite for fiscal recovery.
Labib al-Nahhas, manager of the Syrian Association for Citizens’ Dignity, said the accelerated territorial losses suffered by the SDF echo the autumn of President Bashar al-Assad’s authorities successful December 2024.
“SDF are collapsing successful a akin mode to [the] authorities successful Damascus,” helium said, arguing that al-Omar, Tabqa and Tishreen are pivotal for economical recovery, not lone successful presumption of recovering resources specified arsenic lipid and gas, but “because they volition person a immense interaction connected prices and surviving conditions”.
Radwan Ziadeh, elder chap astatine the Arab Center Washington DC (ACW), said controlling earthy resources unsocial was not capable to assistance Syria determination forward, but that it was a measurement successful the close direction.
“It is inactive precise aboriginal to accidental that determination are tangible benefits from this advance,” helium said.
“Oil- and gasfields necessitate important planetary concern to unlock their afloat potential. On their own, they cannot present recovery. [But] much importantly, this is simply a important measurement towards unifying Syria. This is the archetypal clip the state has been unified nether 1 authorities since 2013. Before that, Syria was divided betwixt Free Syrian Army factions, the al-Assad government, and aboriginal ISIL [ISIS], which fragmented the state adjacent further.”
March agreement
In March 2025, Mazloum Abdi, the commandant of the SDF who is besides known arsenic Mazloum Kobani, and al-Sharaa signed a model statement aimed astatine integrating the radical into authorities structures portion protecting section governance and Kurdish rights.
At the time, Abdi called it “a existent accidental to physique a caller Syria that embraces each its components”. He emphasised that “there volition beryllium nary armies extracurricular the state”, reflecting some acceptance of a unified subject operation and persistent interest for Kurdish autonomy.
Al-Sharaa, meanwhile, presented the pact arsenic an affirmation of authorities sovereignty first, rights 2nd – a constituent that would beryllium decisive successful the months ahead.
In November, al-Sharaa met United States President Donald Trump astatine the White House, and Syria became a spouse successful the warfare against ISIL. That fundamentally took the aerial from the SDF’s statement that it was the lone US state warring against the equipped group. The statement besides provided al-Sharaa’s forces with the accidental to consolidate their deals with Arab fighters who wanted to power sides – from the SDF to Damascus. And the Syrian president offered an olive subdivision to war-weary Kurdish civilians, galore of whom besides privation an extremity to hostilities.
However, by precocious 2025, implementation of the government-SDF statement lagged. Territorial and administrative disagreements grew, and the Syrian service precocious into SDF-controlled territory.
Tribes’ decisive role
While overseas argumentation acceptable the backdrop, section tribal dynamics person proved decisive successful reshaping control. Over the past year, Damascus has invested heavy successful courting Arab clans successful Deir Az Zor and Raqqa who had grown disaffected with the SDF’s Kurdish-led administration. The tribes were besides increasing progressively frustrated with the deficiency of implementation of the March agreement.
Participants astatine a January 17 gathering of tribal elders from Syria’s eastbound reviewed the consequences of failing to instrumentality the agreement’s provisions connected time, including the imaginable governmental and information impacts connected the region.
Several tribal sheikhs astatine the gathering emphasised the value of preventing escalation, the necessity of adhering to agreements to execute stability, and called connected the SDF to instrumentality the March deal. The tribes had made wide their dissatisfaction with the SDF, and erstwhile the accidental presented itself, they moved to propulsion the SDF retired of their communities.
A root from the Syrian Tribal Forces, a conjugation of Syrian Arab tribes, told Al Jazeera connected Sunday: “Areas southbound of Hasakah, from Sur to al-Shaddadi, are escaped of SDF forces.”
The extracurricular influence
The unravelling of the March woody was besides accelerated by changing determination dynamics. The US – a longstanding, superior subject spouse – narrowed its relation to counter-ISIL operations, leaving the Kurdish-led forces without the outer subject assistance they had relied on. Without US enforcement, Damascus has had country to asseverate authorization eastbound of the Euphrates River, the backbone of the SDF’s territory.
Turkiye, for its part, has ever remained wary of immoderate SDF autonomy. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been speedy to backmost al-Sharaa’s moves against the SDF and welcomed the quality of Sunday’s deal.
The territory was taken from the SDF not conscionable by force, but with the tacit consent of planetary and determination allies and communities weary of war, who felt disenfranchised arsenic a effect of Arab-Kurdish divisions.
Energy, h2o arsenic levers of authorities authority
Control of the al-Omar oilfield, the Conoco state analyzable and the Tabqa Dam is not conscionable symbolic.
Tabqa Dam, the country’s largest hydroelectric facility, present governs powerfulness and irrigation crossed overmuch of bluish and eastbound Syria. Electricity successful this portion is virtually life-sustaining, powering hospitals, schools and concern activity.
Yet the afloat imaginable of these assets remains unrealised. Reconstruction and planetary concern are indispensable to person regained infrastructure into semipermanent authorities capacity.
Meanwhile, the SDF’s nonaccomplishment of power implicit resource-rich areas reduces their fiscal independency and constrains governance successful formerly autonomous zones. As ACW’s Ziadeh noted, this infinitesimal is little astir contiguous economical summation than the consolidation of authorities authorization and territorial unification.
The SDF, it seems, volition person to retreat from astir Arab bulk areas towards Hasakah governorate. That is wherever the historical roots of Syria’s Kurdish number stay and supply the unit with manpower, governmental backing and economical viability.
Human and societal changes
The Syrian government’s beforehand eastwards is reshaping communities. Thousands person been displaced from Aleppo, Raqqa and Tabqa.
Kurdish populations look the hostility betwixt guaranteed citizenship arsenic promised by al-Sharaa successful a statesmanlike decree issued connected January 16, and the erosion of the SDF’s governmental autonomy.
Arab tribes, meanwhile, are recalibrating alliances, balancing section interests with caller authorities authority.
Main tribes, including al-Ukaidat, al-Bakara, al-Jabour, Anza, Shammar, Bani Khalid, al-Bu Shaaban, al-Buhamad and al-Baggara, fundamentally tally the governorates of Deir Az Zor, Raqqa and Hasakah successful northeastern Syria. Their loyalties are often transactional, depending connected who runs that region. Al-Sharaa’s forces look to person the precocious manus now.
The societal declaration – fragile earlier the warfare – is being renegotiated successful existent time, amid some worldly deprivation and governmental promises.
To support caller allies blessed and forestall defections, Damascus volition person to attraction – and beryllium seen to care, arsenic well. The likelihood of much radical tilting to the government’s broadside volition beryllium connected what benignant of improvements they spot successful presumption of security, inclusion and the economy.
Al-Nahhas expects the interaction connected surviving conditions would beryllium “massive” but not immediate, stressing that anticipation absorption is indispensable due to the fact that betterment volition instrumentality time. Central power and stability, helium added, could incentivise overseas concern successful oil, state and electricity, provided corruption is minimised and governance improves.
He said aft regaining captious vigor sites, energy costs and availability could besides improve, but warned that outcomes beryllium connected absorption – however rapidly authorities tin marque facilities operational, fixed that infrastructure is not optimal, however efficaciously power is asserted, and however transparently assets are managed.
No lipid windfalls soon
Mohamad Ahmad, economist and vigor specializer astatine Karam Shaar Advisory Limited, said portion the al-Omar tract was “technically feasible for investment”, accumulation had collapsed to astir 14,200 barrels per time and reservoirs were stressed.
“The government’s caller takeover successful precocious 2025 reclaims a critically impaired asset; its rehabilitation faces immense method and fiscal hurdles, underscoring the semipermanent economical outgo of the war,” helium said.
Ahmad added that the seizure of the oilfield highlights the extent of harm inflicted implicit the years of conflict.
“As Syria’s flagship oilfield, al-Omar’s trajectory from a high-potential plus to a war-torn awesome is some tragic and indicative of the conflict’s devastation,” helium said.
“We’re looking astatine a tract that erstwhile produced astir 90,000 barrels per day, with archetypal reserves of 760 cardinal barrels of high-quality airy crude. However, implicit a decennary of conflict, which included its usage arsenic a fiscal motor for ISIS and consequent targeted aerial strikes, has inflicted catastrophic harm – good implicit $800m – to its halfway infrastructure.”
Unification inactive fragile
In Deir Az Zor, Raqqa and Aleppo, vigor infrastructure hums unevenly. Across the northeast, Syrians unrecorded betwixt the committedness of a unified authorities and the caution of decades of uncertainty – their aboriginal tethered to the intersection of energy, politics, and quality resilience.
Yet economical realities, lingering distrust and analyzable overseas engagement mean that unification is precarious.
But for the archetypal clip since 2013, Syria is mostly unified nether a azygous government. Ziadeh added that the inclusion of Kurdish rights and societal freedoms elevates this beyond a subject oregon territorial achievement, “with the announcement to see Kurdish rights and societal freedoms wrong the Syrian authorities framework, this is the archetypal clip we are seeing a unifying authorities successful Syria. That is the astir important takeaway from this accelerated advance.”
The Syrian government’s battlefield advances show the instrumentality of cardinal authority, the partial reintegration of Kurdish and Arab actors, and the resumption of power implicit cardinal economical lifelines. Tribal councils person praised inclusive decrees; Abdi continues to navigate a shifting governmental landscape; and al-Sharaa asserts sovereignty with inclusion.
But the betterment of Syria’s northeast is not simply astir subject gains oregon ineligible decrees. It is astir rebuilding trust, maintaining section support, and cautiously managing the delicate equilibrium betwixt unity and autonomy. The oil, the dam, the gas, and the laws are each symbols of what is imaginable – but besides reminders of however tenuous authorities powerfulness remains successful a onshore agelong fractured by war.
In Syria, the Euphrates is some witnesser and arbiter – it remains to beryllium seen whether its eastbound and occidental banks could enactment unneurotic for a agreed Syria aft much than 5 decades of being ruled by the al-Assad family.
English (US) ·