Prediction markets show rising odds Trump seizes Panama Canal, moves on Greenland

Prediction market traders ramped up bets that much international shakeups whitethorn prevarication up successful the aftermath of President Donald Trump's raid connected Venezuela.

Traders connected the burgeoning platforms person precocious committed wealth based connected wherever the White House mightiness crook its absorption next. The amped up bets travel arsenic Wall Street and Main Street enactment the Trump administration's shift toward speedy and forceful planetary strikes.

"The large takeaway for investors is Trump is increasing overmuch much comfy with, and assured in, the usage of subject force," Piper Sandler expert Andy Laperriere wrote to clients connected Monday. "His archetypal twelvemonth successful his 2nd word was characterized by boundless vigor and risk-taking, and that has been extended to the usage of the military."

Odds that Trump volition "take back" the Panama Canal earlier aboriginal 2029 connected the Kalshi prediction market jumped supra 35%, from little than 30% precocious past week. Trump said past twelvemonth that helium wouldn't regularisation out utilizing subject unit to summation power of the maritime way linking the Pacific to the Atlantic.

The likelihood that the U.S. volition "take control" of Greenland roseate to 38% midday Tuesday — an summation of astir 8 percent points since the mediate of past week. At 1 constituent implicit the weekend, the likelihood changeable supra 46%.

A larger market, based connected the dollar magnitude of wagering, that Trump volition "buy astatine slightest part" of the Danish territory, hovered adjacent 25% odds, up from little than 20% seen precocious past week.

Combined betting connected some questions connected Kalshi amounts to adjacent to $2.5 million.

Leaders successful Greenland person repeatedly rejected Trump's comments that the U.S. aims for a takeover. But Trump reiterated his calls to instrumentality the European possession successful an interview successful The Atlantic published this weekend.

"We bash request Greenland, absolutely," Trump told the magazine.

Mujtaba Rahman, managing manager for Europe astatine consultancy Eurasia Group, said the Danish authorities was successful "full situation mode" pursuing Trump's latest comments.

On Polymarket, caller markets worthy tens of thousands of dollars each person sprouted up successful caller days astir a imaginable strike connected Colombia and invasion of Cuba. Trump has leveled threats at some countries.

Kalshi betters began predicting this play that Ali Khamenei, the ultimate person of Iran, would leave office earlier adjacent year. The accidental of this, portion of astir a $1 cardinal market, present trades astir 54%.

Trump authorized bombing attacks connected Iran past year, bringing the U.S. into the struggle betwixt the Islamic republic and Israel. Last week, Trump threatened to "knock the hell" retired of Iran if it rebuilt its atomic program.

"Now, I perceive that Iran is trying to physique up again, and if they are we're going to person to sound them down. We'll sound them down," Trump said. "We'll sound the hellhole retired of them. But hopefully that's not happening."