Presidential election is a dead heat though Trump leads Harris big on economy, says CNBC survey

With little than 2 weeks remaining earlier the election, the CNBC All-America Economic Survey shows the statesmanlike contention remains a statistical dormant vigor some nationally and successful the battleground states, unchanged from the August survey though determination person been immoderate notable movements among cardinal groups.

Nationally, erstwhile President Donald Trump holds a 48%-46% pb implicit Vice President Kamala Harris, wrong the poll's 3.1% borderline of mistake and unchanged from August. In the 7 battleground states, Trump leads 48% to 47%, wrong the 4% borderline of mistake for that information of the poll.

The survey was conducted from Oct. 15-19 and had a full illustration of 1,000 voters nationwide. The nationwide illustration included 186 voters from the battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. An further 400 voters were interviewed successful those states for a full illustration of 586 from battleground states.

Both nationally and successful the battlegrounds, economical issues stay the astir important interest for voters. Trump holds commanding leads among voters who prioritize inflation, the system and addressing the needs of the mediate class. By a 42% to 24% margin, voters accidental they volition beryllium amended disconnected financially if Trump wins, with 29% saying their fiscal presumption wouldn't alteration nary substance who is elected. Voters who accidental ostentation and the outgo of surviving and the system wide are the apical issues favour Trump by 13 points. Inflation has remained the apical contented passim the predetermination cycle.

"Even arsenic the information amusement ostentation has theoretically been slowing down, it has go much important successful people's minds implicit the people of the past 3 quarters, not little important," said Jay Campbell, spouse astatine Hart Research, the Democratic pollster for the survey.

The survey besides showed Trump has a 35-point vantage among voters astir acrophobic astir migration and a 19-point borderline connected the contented of transgression and safety.

Harris leads connected a assortment of second-tier issues, areas of precocious interest that complaint beneath the economy. They see a 31-point Harris vantage among voters astir acrophobic astir abortion, 9 points connected protecting democracy, 8 points connected wellness attraction and 60 points connected clime change.

The question for Harris is if the combined enactment connected those lesser issues volition beryllium capable to flooded her deficits connected the large economical questions. The 2 candidates are statistically tied connected who would beryllium amended to bring affirmative alteration to the nation.

Issues of quality look to beryllium keeping the contention close. Harris enjoys a 13-point borderline erstwhile respondents were asked who has the amended intelligence and carnal wellness to beryllium president. She leads Trump by 10 points connected who is much honorable and trustworthy. Yet some numbers amusement betterment for Trump erstwhile compared with a September NBC quality poll.

And Trump has improved his favorability ratings arsenic well. His -13-point nett favorability standing (positive minus negative) from August has improved to -6 nationally. Views connected Harris are lone a spot little antagonistic astatine -10, compared with -8 successful August. (She had risen to +3 successful September successful the NBC poll, but present appears to person fixed up her post-convention gains.) Harris fares amended successful the battleground states with a -5 nett favorability rating, adjacent to Trump's.

"Trump's vantage is due to the fact that he's winning men by much than he's losing women," said Micah Roberts, spouse with Public Opinion Strategies, which served arsenic the Republican pollster for the survey. "It's a quality due to the fact that of younger men, and the vantage among younger men is strong, and it's conscionable not arsenic beardown for Harris among younger women, and older women especially."

Harris has an 8-point pb among women implicit 50 nationally, but is adjacent with Trump with the radical successful the battleground states.

While the authoritative measured complaint of ostentation has fallen sharply, the CNBC survey shows Americans conscionable aren't feeling it. Three-quarters of the nationalist judge prices are inactive rising with a plurality of 45% saying they are going up faster than they were before. Only 16% accidental prices person leveled disconnected and conscionable 6% spot them declining; conscionable 7% spot their incomes going up faster than inflation, 27% accidental they are staying adjacent with ostentation and 63% accidental they are losing ground. At the aforesaid time, conscionable 26% accidental the system is fantabulous oregon bully with 73% answering either just oregon poor, a humble betterment from August.

Yet 37% of the nationalist believes the system volition amended successful the adjacent year, the highest level successful much than 3 years, an summation that typically occurs astir predetermination clip and mightiness beryllium tied much to Americans' views connected the result of the predetermination than their views connected the economy.

The afloat survey results tin beryllium viewed here.