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Kampala, Uganda – When Bobi Wine, a singer-turned-politician whose existent sanction is Robert Kyagulanyi, launched his run to go Uganda’s adjacent president successful October, helium appeared successful tailored suits, greeting crowds with a acquainted smile.
The mood, astatine slightest astatine first, felt cautiously hopeful.
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But by December, that representation had disappeared.
As campaigning comes to an extremity connected Tuesday, Bobi Wine, who is the main absorption campaigner looking to unseat long-serving President Yoweri Museveni, present lone appears successful nationalist wearing a bulletproof vest and helmet.
For galore Ugandans, his alteration successful attire – and the authorities unit that led to it – are symbols of a foregone governmental outcome: An incumbent triumph apt to beryllium rejected by his competitors.
Since helium was cleared to tally successful the predetermination successful September, Bobi Wine’s run convoy has often been met with teardrop gas, roadblocks and arrests of supporters. Campaign events are regularly disrupted, with radical abruptly dispersing and roads sealed off.
While the unit has not reached the deadly levels of the 2021 election, erstwhile much than 50 radical were killed and hundreds of Bobi Wine supporters were detained pursuing spontaneous protests successful the capital, Kampala, the run situation has go progressively militarised – defined by calculated repression, intimidation and a steadily shrinking abstraction for Bobi Wine to merchantability his manifesto, analysts person observed.
Bobi Wine, 43, is contesting for a 2nd clip successful Thursday’s predetermination aft helium finished arsenic the runner-up successful the 2021 polls.
Museveni won that past disputed ballot during which Bobi Wine alleged fraud and urged citizens to cull the result. The 81-year-old incumbent has ruled the state for astir 4 decades aft capturing powerfulness pursuing a rebel war, and is seeking a seventh word successful office.
Five different candidates are besides successful this year’s race, successful which 21.6 cardinal registered voters are expected to formed their votes.
Bobi Wine waves to supporters astatine an predetermination run rally successful Mukono, Uganda [Hajarah Nalwadda/AP]A clime of fear
Even earlier campaigning officially began, Bobi Wine’s squad expected violence.
Museveni’s son, Muhoozi Kainerugaba – who serves arsenic Uganda’s service main – had publically threatened Bobi Wine successful the months starring to the run season, including remarks astir beheading him.
Kainerugaba besides claimed work for the abduction and torture of Bobi Wine’s bodyguard, Edward Ssebuufu, who remains successful detention.
Opposition officials accidental that portion the worst of Kainerugaba’s threats person not materialised, the state, fearing the large assemblage Bobi Wine was attracting, decided to unleash unit connected him during the predetermination campaign.
“In presumption of violence, we saw that the archetypal period [October] was a spot not truthful violent, but aft that it became convulsive and chaotic,” David Lewis Rubonyoya, secretary-general of National Unity Platform (NUP), the enactment Bobi Wine leads, told Al Jazeera.
During a run halt successful Gulu, bluish Uganda, successful December, Bobi Wine was attacked by information forces and plainclothes individuals equipped with sticks. He and respective of his aides were beaten, and run instrumentality was vandalised. One idiosyncratic aboriginal died pursuing the incident. In a abstracted incidental successful Mbarara, occidental Uganda, successful November, constabulary arrested 43 Bobi Wine supporters aft a confrontation implicit run routes. They stay successful detention.
During the 2021 predetermination period, the protests and deadly constabulary crackdown were prompted by Bobi Wine’s apprehension for allegedly flaunting COVID-19 guidelines. This year, though the unit has truthful acold been muted, absorption figures and analysts importune the repression is nary little terrible – lone much controlled.
Michael Mutyaba, a Ugandan governmental expert and a doctoral researcher astatine SOAS University of London, says the quality lies successful strategy.
“In 2021 and before, information agencies were successful panic mode. There was authorities unit that was little calculated. The unit present looks much calculated and expanded,” helium told Al Jazeera. He pointed to arrests of random people, similar a Catholic clergyman charged with wealth laundering, arsenic examples. The authorities besides arrested Sarah Birete, a salient quality rights activistic and critic, who volition lone beryllium released aft the election.
Opposition supporters motion from a minivan astatine a run rally astatine Aga Khan Grounds successful Kampala [Samson Otieno/AP]Voter and campaigner ‘bribery’
Bobi Wine, too, has faced accrued onslaught from the state, with candidates sponsored by his enactment to basal successful parliamentary elections coming nether peculiar strain. Many of the targeted candidates lasting successful the parliamentary polls, besides being held connected Thursday, person withdrawn their candidacies, publically denounced Bobi Wine, and joined the governing party.
Most of these defections, managed by parliament’s lawman speaker, Thomas Tayebwa, person occurred regular but chiefly extracurricular the cardinal region, which is considered Bobi Wine’s stronghold. Bobi Wine has claimed that these candidates were bribed, portion the authorities maintains that they joined the governing enactment freely and without conditions.
Yusuf Serunkuma, a governmental expert based astatine Kampala’s Makerere University, said helium is not amazed by the “regime’s” tactics.
“This is portion of transactional politics,” helium told Al Jazeera. But helium added that if the absorption had the capableness to bargain candidates from the governing party, they excessively would beryllium doing it daily.
Another method the authorities has utilized to destruct candidates sponsored by Bobi Wine’s enactment has been done disqualification by the Electoral Commission, which has argued that immoderate candidates failed to conscionable information requirements. Jude Byamukama, a Ugandan law lawyer, says the cancellations person been “ridiculous”, arsenic critics accidental they are tactics deployed to halt the opposition.
“They [Electoral Commission] were trying to make unopposed candidates successful respective constituencies without a lawful basis,” Byamukama told Al Jazeera. He added that aft disqualification, the committee past made it hard for candidates to entreaty to the courts by failing to service them the decisions connected time.
Months earlier the predetermination season, Museveni besides launched a softer offensive, peculiarly targeting informal assemblage players successful Bobi Wine’s strongholds successful cardinal Uganda. There, the president has distributed millions of dollars successful currency to groups specified arsenic motorcycle riders, taxi drivers, salon operators and thoroughfare vendors. Mwambutsya Ndebesa, a retired historiographer from Makerere University, describes this arsenic “electoral corruption” meant to power voters, portion Serunkuma said “vote buying” is mean successful Ugandan politics, but this time, it’s been much organised.
Ugandan information forces patrol a thoroughfare during a run rally for absorption statesmanlike campaigner Bobi Wine, successful Mukono, Uganda [Hajarah Nalwadda/AP]Fears the worst is yet to come
As predetermination time approaches connected Thursday, Bobi Wine has warned that the authorities plans to apprehension him and abduct cardinal organisers who would play a relation successful monitoring polling stations.
He has issued proposal to supporters: Disable telephone determination services, debar predictable routes, bounds clip spent successful 1 place, and fly if followed by unfamiliar vehicles oregon motorcycles – similar the Toyota Hiace commonly associated with authorities abductions.
“I americium alert of a crippled by the hopeless authorities to person maine arrested earlier polling day,” helium precocious said connected societal media.
Another flashpoint looms implicit predetermination time itself: Whether voters should stay adjacent polling stations aft voting to “protect the vote”, arsenic Bobi Wine has urged.
Ugandan instrumentality allows voters to stay astatine slightest 20 metres (66ft) distant from polling stations, but the Electoral Commission and information agencies person advised radical to permission instantly aft voting.
The Electoral Commission has framed the contented arsenic 1 of subject alternatively than legality, informing that crowds could provoke disorder.
Ugandans privation peace
Despite the tense ambiance among governmental players, Ugandans accidental they privation bid – careless of governmental affiliation.
Wanyama Isaac, a casual operation idiosyncratic successful Kampala and a Bobi Wine supporter, says elections should not descend into violence.
“Violence helps nary one. It is the work of some sides to stay calm,” helium said.
Mashabe Alex, a boda boda rider who supports Museveni, agrees.
“Violence destroys businesses and lives, arsenic we saw successful 2021.”
He says the absorption should not endanger Museveni supporters similar himself.
A run billboard for President Yoweri Museveni is displayed successful Kampala, Uganda, Wednesday, January 7, 2026 [Hajarah Nalwadda/AP]An uncertain endgame
Bobi Wine’s campy has not disclosed its post-election strategy. But Museveni has been informing his competitor’s supporters not to situation face information agencies.
“I person heard Bobi Wine accidental that soldiers and constabulary are fewer portion rioters are many. I counsel you not to judge him. Every worker and constabulary serviceman has a weapon with 120 bullets,” Museveni warned successful December.
The subject already has soldiers successful infantry mobility vehicles successful Kampala, an absorption stronghold.
Rubongoya of the NUP argues that the Electoral Commission cannot state an absorption campaigner a victor successful Uganda without unit from the public.
“If Ugandans ballot successful ample numbers and peacefully request their victory, the Electoral Commission volition beryllium pushed to denote the close candidate,” helium said.
“Our ideology is radical power. If radical are determined, intimidation and wealth volition not halt them,” helium added.
However, Rubongoya acknowledged that memories of the 2020–2021 predetermination unit inactive haunt galore Ugandans. He warned that immoderate effort to protestation could beryllium met with lethal force.
Serunkuma argues that the absorption signed up for an electoral process that was rigged from the start, and that they cognize they tin ne'er win, suggesting that their people whitethorn not beryllium unseating Museveni himself.
Rather, helium says parties similar that of Bobi Wine privation to “consolidate themselves nether Museveni” by, for instance, retaining positions they clasp successful parliament.
Mutyaba predicts that aft the predetermination results are announced, Bobi Wine volition apt beryllium placed nether location apprehension – a maneuver the authorities has utilized repeatedly since 2011. His enactment volition contented statements dismissing the predetermination results, and that volition apt beryllium the end.
“It is intolerable to organise protests nether the existent conditions,” Mutyaba said. “The dynamics are not successful their favour. The lone anticipation is that, astatine immoderate constituent during Museveni’s adjacent term, an incidental could trigger an uprising. But that volition not hap adjacent week.”
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