Putin's latest warning to Ukraine shows how unlikely a peace deal is

Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned Moscow volition instrumentality Ukrainian territory by unit if Kyiv's troops bash not withdraw, signaling rigidity implicit a cardinal sticking constituent successful bid talks.

"Either we liberate these territories by unit of arms, oregon Ukrainian troops permission these territories," Putin, who is presently connected a authorities sojourn to India, said successful an interrogation with India Today. The comments, published by Russian state-controlled media, were translated by quality bureau Reuters and made successful notation to Ukraine's eastbound Donbas region.

Russia is estimated to power much than 80% of the Donbas, wherever warring betwixt Ukrainian forces and Russian-backed separatists started agelong earlier Russia's full-scale penetration of 2022. The warfare successful the portion archetypal began successful 2014, erstwhile Russia invaded and annexed Crimea — a peninsular successful confederate Ukraine.

Capturing and officially annexing the Donbas portion would enable Russia to make a onshore bridge to Crimea, a important subject and trading hub for Moscow.

Under occupation, so-called referendums person shown up to 99% of residents successful parts of the Donbas portion voted to articulation the Russian Federation. Those referendums person been wide criticized arsenic sham votes by the planetary community.

Putin's comments came aft helium held a five-hour meeting with U.S. delegates Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner — U.S. President Donald Trump's lad successful instrumentality — successful Moscow connected Tuesday.

During Thursday's interrogation with India Today, Putin said Russia did not hold with immoderate of the points outlined successful the reworked U.S. bid proposals for Ukraine, labeling the dialog process "difficult work."

The original 28-point bid plan — drawn up by Russian and American officials, with nary input from Ukraine — reportedly included a request that Ukraine concede territory successful the Donbas to Russia. It was redrafted following talks betwixt the U.S. and Ukraine, whose president Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly stated that immoderate bid woody indispensable grant Ukrainian sovereignty.

Marnie Howlett, a lecturer successful Russian and East European authorities astatine the University of Oxford, told CNBC connected Friday that the warfare would lone extremity erstwhile Russia stops attacking Ukraine.

"Given the Kremlin shows a deficiency of genuine involvement successful ending the conflict, nary bid statement is apt immoderate clip soon," she said.

"Russia has failed to instrumentality Donbas by unit since 2014, arsenic Ukrainians person made wide they volition not judge the amerciable seizure of their territory. No 'deal' is imaginable without Ukrainians' support, and astir 12 years of absorption amusement that they are unwilling to enactment territorial concessions."

Emily Ferris, a elder probe chap astatine defence and information thinktank the Royal United Services Institute, agreed that Moscow is improbable to beryllium genuinely invested successful making bid successful Ukraine without onshore concessions being connected the table.

"Currently, Russia sees nary crushed to travel to the negotiating array due to the fact that it is making – admittedly tiny – gains connected the battlefield and determination is nary connection that meets their demands," she told CNBC. "The 2 sticking points are European subject enactment for Ukraine – the alleged information guarantees and what that really means – and of people the territorial issue, which Moscow is counting connected Ukraine to compromise on."

Speaking astatine the 2025 Investor Summit league astatine the London Stock Exchange connected Thursday, Kim Darroch, who served arsenic the U.K.'s ambassador to the U.S. during Trump's archetypal term, said helium did not judge an extremity to the struggle successful Ukraine was imminent.

"I don't deliberation the warfare is going to extremity anytime soon, unless the Ukrainians hold to capitulate and springiness up territory, positive to ne'er articulation NATO and this benignant of worldly which I deliberation is fundamentally intolerable to concede and past politically," helium told an audience.

"So, I deliberation the warfare volition resistance connected done the wintertime and beyond, which perchance is precise unsafe for Europe, due to the fact that I deliberation if Trump can't get a woody helium whitethorn conscionable locomotion distant and halt weapons supplies to Ukraine and archer the Europeans, 'it's your problem, I tried to get a deal, truthful you bash it.' And past I'm not definite we really person the capableness to supply Ukraine with what it needs."

Global investors person been intimately monitoring developments successful the negotiations, with a breakthrough apt to person implications for markets crossed plus classes. Moscow's full-scale penetration of Ukraine successful 2022 sparked an international sell-off of equities and immense volatility successful vigor markets arsenic the Western satellite drastically reduced commercialized and concern successful Russia. Concerns astir Russian aggression person besides led to a immense defence splurge crossed Europe, fueling a bull tally connected determination defence stocks.

— CNBC's Holly Ellyatt contributed to this article.