Putin visits India amid Ukraine peace push: What’s on the agenda?

17 hours ago 5

New Delhi, India – Russian President Vladimir Putin is visiting India starting Thursday for the archetypal clip since Moscow’s warfare connected Ukraine broke retired much than 4 years ago, adjacent arsenic a renewed propulsion by the United States to extremity the struggle appears to person stalled.

Putin’s 30-hour velocity travel besides coincides with a tense crook successful relations betwixt Washington and New Delhi, with the US besides punishing India with tariffs and a sanctions menace for its beardown historical ties with Russia and a surge successful its acquisition of Russian crude during the Ukraine war.

That hostility has, successful turn, made India’s longstanding balancing enactment betwixt Russia and the West an adjacent much delicate tightrope walk.

Since gaining independency from Britain successful 1947, India has tried to debar getting locked into ceremonial alliances with immoderate superpower, starring the non-aligned question during the Cold War, adjacent though successful world it drifted person to the Soviet Union from the 1960s. Since the extremity of the Cold War, it has deepened strategical and subject ties with the US portion trying to support its relationship with Russia afloat.

Yet, Russia’s warfare connected Ukraine has challenged that equilibrium – and Putin’s sojourn could connection signs of however Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi plans to juggle New Delhi’s competing relationships without sacrificing immoderate of them.

Russia's President Vladimir Putin shakes hands with India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi during their gathering astatine the Novo-Ogaryovo authorities residence adjacent Moscow, Russia July 8, 2024.

What’s scheduled for Putin?

Putin is expected to onshore connected Thursday evening and caput for a backstage meal with Modi astatine the premier minister’s residence successful the bosom of the Indian capital, New Delhi.

On the greeting of Friday, December 5, Putin is scheduled to sojourn Rashtrapati Bhavan, the statesmanlike palace, for a defender of honour and a gathering with India’s ceremonial caput of state, Droupadi Murmu. He volition then, similar each visiting leaders, question to Raj Ghat, the memorial to Mahatma Gandhi.

Then, Putin and Modi volition conscionable astatine Hyderabad House, a analyzable that hosts astir enactment summits for the latest section of an yearly India-Russia summit. After that, they are scheduled to conscionable concern leaders, earlier attending a banquet thrown successful Putin’s honour by Murmu, the Indian president.

Earlier, the Kremlin said successful a connection that Putin’s sojourn to India was “of large importance, providing an accidental to comprehensively sermon the extended docket of Russian-Indian relations arsenic a peculiarly privileged strategical partnership”.

Putin volition beryllium joined by Andrei Belousov, his defence minister, and a wide-ranging delegation from concern and industry, including apical executives of Russian authorities arms exporter Rosoboronexport, and reportedly the heads of sanctioned lipid firms Rosneft and Gazprom Neft.

FILE - Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi greet each different earlier their gathering successful New Delhi, India, connected Dec. 6, 2021. (AP Photo/Manish Swarup, File)

Why is the timing of the sojourn significant?

The sojourn comes arsenic India and Russia people 25 years of a strategical concern that began successful Putin’s archetypal twelvemonth successful bureau arsenic his country’s caput of state.

But adjacent though India and Russia similar to represent their narration arsenic an illustration of a relationship that has remained dependable amid shifting geopolitical currents, their ties haven’t been immune to pressures from different nations.

Since 2000, New Delhi and Moscow person had successful spot a strategy of yearly summits: The Indian premier curate would sojourn Russia 1 year, and the Russian president would wage a instrumentality sojourn to India the pursuing year.

That tradition, however, was breached successful 2022, the twelvemonth of Russia’s full-scale penetration of Ukraine. Modi was expected to sojourn Russia for the summit, but the conclave was enactment off.

In 2023, Putin skipped a sojourn to India for the G20 acme successful New Delhi. At the time, Putin was seldom travelling abroad, mostly due to the fact that of an International Criminal Court (ICC) warrant against him related to the Ukraine war. India is not a subordinate of the ICC – and truthful it would person been harmless for Putin to attend, but Western members of the G20 made it wide that their leaders would beryllium uncomfortable sharing the country with the Russian president.

Finally, successful 2024, the yearly acme resumed, with Modi visiting Russia. And now, Putin volition onshore successful New Delhi aft 4 years.

Russian S-400 anti-aircraft rocket strategy launcher rolls on Tverskaya thoroughfare toward Red Square anterior to a rehearsal for the Victory Day subject parade successful Moscow, Russia, connected Tuesday, April 29, 2025. (AP Photo/Pavel Bednyakov)

What’s connected the agenda?

Trade analysts and governmental experts expect Putin to propulsion for India to bargain much Russian rocket systems and combatant jets, successful a bid to boost defence ties and research much areas to grow trade, including pharmaceuticals, machinery and cultivation products.

The acme “offers an accidental for some sides to reaffirm their peculiar narration amidst aggravated unit connected India from [US] President [Donald] Trump with punitive tariffs,” Praveen Donthi, a elder expert for India astatine Crisis Group, a US-based deliberation tank, told Al Jazeera.

Putin, analysts said, volition beryllium seeking optical dividends from the summit.

“President Putin tin nonstop a precise beardown connection to his ain people, and besides to the planetary community, that Russia is not isolated successful the world,” said Rajan Kumar, a prof of planetary studies astatine Jawaharlal Nehru University successful New Delhi.

“Russia is being welcomed by a ideology erstwhile Putin faces unit for the warfare successful Ukraine,” Kumar told Al Jazeera.

But visuals aside, a cardinal operator of the India-Russia narration – lipid commercialized – is present astatine risk. And that, on with the shadiness of the antheral liable for the disruption, volition beryllium hovering implicit talks, said experts.

Trump and Putin shingle hands connected a reddish carpet starring from Air Force One.

Is Trump an overshadowing origin successful the summit?

India became the second-largest purchaser of Russian crude aft Moscow invaded Ukraine successful 2022 – an summation of a staggering 2,250 percent successful imports, arsenic Russia’s stock successful its imports went from 1 percent to 40 percent.

The US astatine the clip softly encouraged India to bargain much Russian oil, New Delhi says. The West was stopping purchases of Russian crude, and a implicit planetary prohibition connected that lipid would person shrunk planetary supplies, raising prices. India, by expanding its uptake of Russian oil, helped stabilise the planetary market.

But arsenic Trump, successful his 2nd term, has looked for levers to usage to unit Moscow and Kyiv to extremity the war, helium has targeted India for buying Russian oil. After initially imposing 25 percent tariffs connected Indian goods, Trump doubled that to 50 percent arsenic a punishment for Russian crude purchases.

For months aft that, India continued importing Russian lipid and defended what it called its “strategic autonomy”.

However, successful October, Trump imposed sanctions connected Russia’s 2 biggest lipid firms – Rosneft and Lukoil – and threatened sanctions against firms of different countries that commercialized with them.

Reliance, India’s largest backstage lipid refiner – and the biggest purchaser of Russian lipid successful India – has since said that it volition nary longer export petroleum products that usage Russian crude.

Indian imports of Russian crude are expected to autumn to a three-year debased now. Meanwhile, India precocious signed a woody to dramatically ramp up its import of state from the US.

In the defence assemblage too, the US has been pressuring India to bargain much from it and little from Russia.

“New Delhi is wary of upsetting Washington regarding its defence deals with Moscow, but that’s not going to deter it from making important deals,” said Donthi, the expert astatine Crisis Group. “India hopes to blunt US disapproval by making akin deals with it, immoderate of which are already nether way.”

But Trump’s unit risks hurting goodwill for the US successful India.

Kanwal Sibal, erstwhile Indian overseas caput and an ex-ambassador to Russia, said Trump and the US were employing “double standards”.

“Trump tin rotation retired a reddish carpet for Putin successful Alaska. Why should India not physique connected its ties with Russia then?” helium added, referring to the Trump-Putin acme successful August.

In which assemblage are India-Russia ties strong?

While the bilateral vigor ties betwixt India and Russia look respective barriers, their defence ties are steadier.

Russia remains India’s largest defence supplier, accounting for astir 36 percent of arms imports, and much than 60 percent of India’s existing arsenal.

Import numbers person travel down from 72 percent successful 2010, arsenic India attempts to boost home accumulation and besides bargain much from the US and European nations. But experts accidental that Russia’s presumption arsenic India’s pre-eminent defence spouse volition apt stay unchallenged for respective years.

The Russian S-400 rocket defence strategy was cardinal to India’s aerial defences during its four-day aerial warfare with Pakistan successful May. India’s aerial unit chief, Marshal AP Singh, said that “the S-400 was a crippled changer” for India.

New Delhi is present looking to bargain further S-400 aerial defence systems. Russia, meanwhile, wants to besides merchantability India its Su-57 fifth-generation stealth combatant jets. “The SU-57 is the champion level successful the world,” said Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s property secretary, up of the summit. “And it volition beryllium connected the agenda.”

INTERACTIVE-What bash INDIA and Russia commercialized most?-sep3-2025 transcript 4-1756879432

What are India-Russia commercialized prospects?

India-Russia commercialized has undergone a large displacement since 2022, ballooning from a humble $10bn to a grounds astir $69bn this year, chiefly fuelled by New Delhi’s appetite for discounted Russian crude oil.

However, these numbers stay lopsided: Indian exports, mostly pharmaceuticals and machinery, basal astatine astir $5bn, resulting successful a widening $64bn commercialized deficit. And Russia’s exports to India person been dominated by lipid implicit the past 3 years. With commercialized present expected to fall, truthful volition wide numbers, caution experts. The India-Russia extremity of reaching $100bn successful commercialized by 2030 appears distant.

Instead, analysts told Al Jazeera, the 2 countries present look to beryllium betting connected labour migration arsenic a operator of people-to-people and economical ties.

According to the estimates of the Russian Ministry of Labour, by 2030, the state is expected to spot a shortfall of 3.1 cardinal workers. Indian workers could capable that gap.

“Russia is opening up its labour marketplace for India and looking to alteration its accepted supplier of labour from Central Asian countries to India,” said Kumar, the prof of planetary studies. “This benignant of migration tin person a affirmative interaction connected India-Russia relations.”

That won’t alteration the cardinal hostility that undergirds India’s ties with Russia: New Delhi’s keenness to not harm relations with the US successful the process.

As India simultaneously negotiates commercialized deals with the US, the European Union and the Eurasian Economic Union, an economical bloc led by Russia astatine the moment, New Delhi is walking a good enactment “where it risks antagonising either of them, who are each important economical commercialized partners,” said Kumar.

The 1 happening that could help: a bid woody betwixt Russia and Ukraine, accidental analysts.

Read Entire Article