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Kyiv, Ukraine – Taras, a seasoned Ukrainian serviceman recovering from a contusion, expects “no miracles” from United States President Donald Trump’s August 15 summit with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin.
“There’s going to beryllium nary miracles, nary bid woody successful a week, and Putin volition effort to marque Trump judge that it is Ukraine that doesn’t privation peace,” the fair-haired 32-year-old with a heavy brownish tan acquired successful the trenches of eastbound Ukraine, told Al Jazeera.
Taras, who spent much than 3 years connected the beforehand enactment and said helium had precocious changeable down an explosives-laden Russian drone barging astatine him successful a tract covered with detonation craters, withheld his past sanction successful accordance with the wartime protocol.
Putin wants to dupe Trump by pandering to the US president’s self-image arsenic a peacemaker to debar further economical sanctions, portion the Russian person seeks a large subject breakthrough successful eastbound Ukraine, Taras said.
“Putin truly believes that until this winter, helium volition prehend thing sizeable, oregon that [his troops] volition interruption done the beforehand enactment and volition dictate presumption to Ukraine,” Taras said.
As the Trump medication trumpets the upcoming Alaska summit arsenic a large measurement towards securing a ceasefire, Ukrainians — civilians and subject unit — and experts are mostly pessimistic astir the outcomes of the gathering betwixt the US and Russian presidents.
This is partially due to the fact that of the facts connected the crushed successful eastbound Ukraine. Earlier this month, Russia intensified its propulsion to prehend cardinal locations successful the southeastern Donetsk region, ordering thousands of servicemen to behaviour nearly-suicidal missions to infiltrate Ukrainian positions, guarded 24/7 by buzzing drones with nighttime and thermal vision.
In the past 3 months, Russian forces person occupied immoderate 1,500sq km (580 quadrate miles), mostly successful Donetsk, of which Russia controls astir three-fourths, according to Ukrainian and Western estimates based connected geolocated photos and videos.
The gait is somewhat faster than successful the past 3 years.
Within weeks aft Moscow’s full-scale penetration began successful February 2022, Russia controlled immoderate 27 percent of Ukrainian territory. But Kyiv’s daring counteroffensive and Moscow’s inability to clasp onto areas astir the superior and successful Ukraine’s northbound resulted successful the nonaccomplishment of 9 percent of occupied lands by the autumn of 2022.
Russia has since re-occupied little than 1 percent of Ukrainian territory, contempt losing hundreds of thousands of servicemen, portion pummelling Ukrainian cities astir regular with swarms of drones and missiles. Russia’s propulsion to inhabit a “buffer zone” successful Ukraine’s bluish Sumy portion failed arsenic Kyiv’s forces regained astir of the occupied ground.
Ukraine besides controls a tiny borderline country successful Russia’s occidental Kursk region, wherever it started a palmy violative successful August 2024, but mislaid astir of its gains earlier this year.
The scepticism successful Ukraine implicit the Alaska gathering is besides driven by reports of what the US mightiness connection Putin to effort to person him to halt fighting.
Reports — not denied by Washington — suggest that Trump mightiness connection Moscow afloat power of Donetsk and the smaller neighbouring Luhansk region. In exchange, Moscow could connection a ceasefire and the freezing of the beforehand enactment successful different Ukrainian regions, arsenic good arsenic the retreat from tiny toeholds successful Sumy and the northeastern Kharkiv region, according to the reports.
But to springiness up Donetsk, Kyiv would person to vacate a “fortress belt” that stretches immoderate 50km (31 miles) on a strategical road betwixt the towns of Kostiantynivka and Sloviansk.
Donetsk’s surrender would “position Russian forces highly good to renew their attacks connected overmuch much favorable terms, having avoided a agelong and bloody conflict for the ground,” the Institute for the Study of War, a US deliberation tank, said connected Friday.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said that Ukraine will not “gift” its land, and that it needs steadfast information guarantees from the West.
“We don’t request a intermission successful killings, but a real, agelong peace. Not a ceasefire immoderate clip successful the future, successful months, but now,” helium said successful a televised code connected Saturday.
Some civilian Ukrainians clasp a gloomy presumption connected the prospects of peace, believing that Kyiv’s tilt towards ideology and presumed eventual rank successful the European Union, and Moscow’s “imperialistic nature” acceptable up an equation that prevents a sustainable diplomatic solution.
“The warfare volition spell connected until [either] Ukraine oregon Russia exist,” Iryna Kvasnevska, a biology teacher successful Kyiv whose archetypal relative was killed successful eastbound Ukraine successful 2023, told Al Jazeera.
But the deficiency of spot successful the Alaska acme for galore Ukrainians besides stems from a heavy deficiency of religion successful Trump himself.
Despite Trump’s caller alteration successful rhetoric and increasing nationalist dissatisfaction with Moscow’s reluctance to extremity the hostilities, the US president has a past of blaming Ukraine – for the warfare and its demands of its allies – portion immoderate of his negotiators person repeated Moscow’s talking points. It is besides unclear whether Zelenskyy volition beryllium invited to a trilateral conscionable with Trump and Putin successful Alaska, oregon whether the US volition spell up and question to signifier the aboriginal of Ukraine without Kyiv successful the room.
“Trump has fto america down respective times, and the radical who judge helium won’t bash it again are precise naive, if not stupid,” Leonid Cherkasin, a retired colonel from the Black Sea larboard of Odesa who fought pro-Russian rebels successful Donetsk successful 2014-2015 and suffered contusions, shrapnel and slug wounds, told Al Jazeera.
“He did endanger Putin a batch successful caller weeks, but his actions don’t travel his words,” helium said.
He referred to Trump’s pledges during his re-election run to “end the warfare successful 24 hours”, and his ultimatums to enforce crippling sanctions connected Russia if Putin does not amusement advancement successful a bid settlement.
Trump’s ultimatum to Putin, initially 50 days long, was reduced to “10 to 12 days” and ended connected Friday, 1 time aft the Alaska acme was announced.
Military analysts hold that Putin volition not bow to Trump’s and Zelenskyy’s demands.
Meanwhile, the precise information of a face-to-face with Trump heralds a diplomatic triumph for Putin, who has go a governmental pariah successful the West and faces kid abduction charges that person led the International Criminal Court to contented an apprehension warrant against him. Putin past visited the US for bilateral meetings successful 2007, lone coming for UN summits aft that, but not visiting the state since the warrant was issued.
“What’s paramount for Putin is the information of his speech with Trump arsenic equals,” Nikolay Mitrokhin, a researcher with Germany’s Bremen University, told Al Jazeera.
“I deliberation the woody volition beryllium constricted to an statement connected cessation of aerial strikes, and Putin volition get 3 months to finalise the onshore operations – that is, to prehend the [entire] Donetsk region.”
An aerial ceasefire whitethorn payment Russia, arsenic it tin amass thousands of drones and hundreds of missiles for aboriginal attacks. The ceasefire volition besides halt Ukraine’s progressively palmy drone strikes connected subject sites, ammunition depots, airfields and lipid refineries successful Russia oregon occupied Ukrainian regions.
“Then [Putin] will, of course, fool Trump, and everything volition resume,” Mitrokhin said.
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