‘Real uncertainty’: What to know about the Honduran presidential election

Voters successful the Central American federation of Honduras are acceptable to spell to the polls for Sunday’s wide election, arsenic they measurement concerns ranging from corruption to nationalist and economical security.

The existent president, Xiomara Castro of the left-wing Liberty and Refoundation (LIBRE) party, is constricted by instrumentality to 1 word successful office.

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But the contention to win Castro is slated to beryllium a nail-biter. Three candidates person surged to the beforehand of the race, but nary has taken a definitive pb successful the polls.

They see Rixi Moncada from the LIBRE party; Nasry Asfura from the right-wing National Party; and Salvador Nasralla from the centrist Liberal Party.

The race, however, has been marred by accusations of fraud and election-tampering.

Those allegations person raised tensions successful Honduras, whose governmental strategy is inactive recovering from the bequest of a United States-backed 2009 military coup that was followed by a play of repression and contested elections.

“Honduras is heading into these elections amid mounting governmental unit connected electoral authorities, nationalist accusations of fraud from crossed the governmental spectrum, and paralysis wrong cardinal electoral bodies,” said Juanita Goebertus, manager of the Americas part astatine the advocacy radical Human Rights Watch.

“These dynamics person created existent uncertainty astir the integrity of the process.”

Who are the candidates, what volition voting look like, and what are the stakes of the election? We reply these questions and much successful this little explainer.

When is the election?

The predetermination volition instrumentality spot successful a azygous circular of voting, held connected November 30. The campaigner with the astir votes volition beryllium declared the victor and should instrumentality bureau connected January 25, 2026.

How agelong is the statesmanlike term?

Each president whitethorn service a azygous four-year word successful office.

Who is eligible to vote?

There are astir 6.5 cardinal Hondurans eligible to formed a ballot, including astir 400,000 surviving overseas successful the United States. That group, however, is restricted to voting connected the statesmanlike candidates.

Voting is obligatory successful Honduras, but determination are nary penalties for those who bash not participate.

Who are the candidates?

Three of the 5 statesmanlike candidates person emerged arsenic main challengers successful the race.

Competing arsenic the campaigner for the left-leaning LIBRE Party is Rixi Moncada, a adjacent confidant of President Castro who has served archetypal arsenic her concern minister, from 2022 to 2024, and aboriginal arsenic her caput of defence.

Moncada resigned that presumption successful May to prosecute her statesmanlike bid.

If elected, she has pledged to “democratise the economy”, pushing backmost against efforts to privatise authorities services. Her level besides promises greater entree to recognition for tiny businesses and a crackdown connected firm corruption.

Another contender is Salvador Nasralla, a acquainted look successful Honduran politics. A campaigner for the centrist Liberal Party, helium is moving for president for a 4th time.

A 72-year-old with a inheritance successful civilian engineering, Nasralla formerly served arsenic Castro’s vice president earlier resigning successful April 2024.

Nasralla has said that helium volition streamline authorities functions portion seeking to bring informal workers, who marque up a ample information of the country’s labour force, into the ceremonial economy.

Finally, moving arsenic the campaigner for the right-leaning National Party is Nasry “Tito” Asfura.

Previously a politician and typical for the superior of Tegucigalpa, Asfura has said helium volition tally the state arsenic an “administrator” and “executor”, promoting pro-business policies to pull investment.

Supporters of the Liberal Party cheer for statesmanlike campaigner Salvador Nasralla during his campaign’s closing lawsuit successful San Pedro Sula, Honduras, connected November 23 [Delmer Martinez/AP Photo]

How person overseas relations played a relation successful the election?

On overseas relations, Moncada is expected to proceed her predecessor’s pursuit of person ties with countries such arsenic China and enactment for different left-wing figures successful the region.

Both Nasralla and Asfura person said they volition orient Honduras towards the US and its allies, including Israel and Taiwan.

On Wednesday, successful the waning days of the statesmanlike race, US President Donald Trump expressed his enactment for Asfura.

Trump besides formed Honduras’s statesmanlike contention arsenic portion of his broader run against Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, blaming the South American person for cause trafficking and the constitution of left-wing governments crossed the region.

“Democracy is connected proceedings successful the coming Elections successful the beauteous state of Honduras connected November 30th. Will Maduro and his Narcoterrorists instrumentality implicit different state similar they person taken implicit Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela?” Trump wrote connected his level Truth Social.

“The antheral who is lasting up for Democracy, and warring against Maduro, is Tito Asfura.”

What bash the polls say?

Though pre-election surveys person shown Moncada, Nasralla and Asfura to beryllium successful the lead, nary wide frontrunner has emerged.

In September, a poll released by the steadfast CID Gallup recovered that Nasralla had 27 percent support, Moncada 26 and Asfura 24. Those percentages separating the 3 candidates were wrong the poll’s borderline of error.

An further 18 percent of respondents successful that survey indicated they were undecided.

Why has predetermination integrity been a concern?

Questions of corruption person agelong dogged Honduras’s fragile democracy, and this predetermination play has brought those fears backmost to the fore.

During the March primaries, for instance, determination were “irregularities” successful the organisation of predetermination materials, and immoderate polling stations reported delays, agelong lines and bladed staffing that forced the ballot to agelong precocious into the night.

There has besides been discord betwixt the 2 authorities agencies that grip Honduras’s elections: the National Electoral Council (CNE) and the Electoral Justice Tribunal.

Congress elects the main leaders for each of the 2 agencies. But some the tribunal and the CNE person been targeted for probe recently.

In October, prosecutors opened a transgression probe into CNE person Cossette Lopez implicit alleged plans for an “electoral coup”.

The Joint Staff of the Armed Forces has besides asked the CNE for a transcript of a ballot tally expanse for the statesmanlike contention connected predetermination day, prompting concerns implicit imaginable interference by the equipped forces.

The Electoral Justice Tribunal, meanwhile, has faced an probe into whether it has voted without each of its members present.

Both President Castro and members of the absorption person spoken astir the imaginable for fraud successful Sunday’s vote, heightening scrutiny connected the vote.

Organisations specified arsenic Human Rights Watch and the Organization of American States (OAS) person expressed interest implicit the unit facing predetermination officials.

“What matters astir present is that electoral institutions are allowed to run independently, that the Armed Forces adhere strictly to their constricted law role, and that each governmental actors refrain from actions oregon statements that could inflame tensions oregon undermine nationalist trust,” said Goebertus.