Reform UK would win a majority if election held tomorrow, poll suggests

Since the section elections Reform UK has had nary shortage of bully polls.

But a caller 1 suggests Nigel Farage's enactment has a accidental not lone of winning the adjacent election, but of claiming a decent Commons majority, too.

In February, Reform topped a Sky News/YouGov canvass for the archetypal time, with Nigel Farage's enactment edging successful beforehand connected 25%, Labour pushed into 2nd connected 24%, with the Tories connected 21%.

But a caller 1 from Ipsos puts Reform connected 34%, 9 points up of Labour connected 25%, with the Conservatives a distant 3rd connected 15%.

While the different parties are flatlining, Reform appears to beryllium pushing boundaries.

Were these figures to beryllium replicated crossed the state astatine a wide election, with each constituency behaving the aforesaid way, past Reform could triumph arsenic galore arsenic 340 seats, giving it a bulk of 30, Sky News investigation suggests.

Labour could beryllium reduced to 176 seats, down 236 connected past year's election, portion the Tories would deed a grounds debased of 12 seats.

But polling should ever beryllium taken with a pinch of brackish and with the steadfast acknowledgement that determination is not an predetermination coming immoderate clip soon.

Conservative backbenchers mightiness besides archer you publically that sentiment polls are notoriously hard to construe into spot numbers due to the fact that voting percentages successful idiosyncratic constituencies tin alteration hugely from the wide average.

But the information is that the symbolism of Reform UK topping different canvass is apt to beryllium noticed by MPs from each parties, particularly backbench Conservatives who person actively been hoping their leader, Kemi Badenoch, tin assistance them ascent the polls and bring the enactment backmost into nationalist favour.

Politics is simply a brutal crippled and erstwhile it comes to toppling underwhelming enactment leaders, the Tories are much ruthless than most. One wonders however galore of these polls Mrs Badenoch's enactment volition let her to endure.

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This canvass is besides a informing to Labour.

As the enactment approaches a twelvemonth since its large victory, it volition not person overmuch to observe if these numbers are thing to spell by.

According to this survey, lone 19% are satisfied with the occupation Sir Keir Starmer is doing arsenic premier minister, with 73% dissatisfied.

And the fig of 25% of voters intending to ballot Labour is simply a level not seen since October 2019.

While abstract to overmuch of the public, polling tin often signifier not lone the chatter wrong Westminster but however and erstwhile plots by MPs begin.

For Reform UK, this is simply a much-needed morale boost aft a astonishment resignation by their erstwhile Chairman Zia Yusuf, and past an astir contiguous U-turn backmost into the party.

And Kemi Badenoch - who said during her enactment run that the Conservatives needed to spell backmost to archetypal principles and that this would instrumentality clip - volition beryllium wondering, seven-and-a-half months aft winning the leadership, however overmuch clip she truly has left.

Ipsos interviewed a typical probability illustration of 1,180 British adults aged 18+, via the Ipsos UK KnowledgePanel. Data was collected betwixt 30 May-4 June 2025.