Row over how many farms will be affected by inheritance tax policy - as No 10 doubles down

The government has doubled down on insisting only a quarter of farms will be affected by inheritance tax plans as thousands of farmers get ready to protest on Tuesday.

After Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced 20% inheritance tax will apply to farms worth more than £1m from April 2026, where they were previously exempt, the policy has become the government's biggest thorn in its side.

Thousands of farmers, including celebrity farmer Jeremy Clarkson, are due to descend on Whitehall on Tuesday to protest the change.

And 1,800 more will take part in a "mass lobby" where members of the National Farmers' Union (NFU) will meet their MPs in parliament to urge them to ask Ms Reeves to reconsider the policy.

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Ahead of the protest, Sir Keir Starmer said on Sunday, on the way to Brazil for the G20, that he is "absolutely confident the vast majority of farms and farmers will not be affected by this".

His spokesman reiterated the prime minister's, and other ministers', comments on Monday as he said the government expects 73% of farms to not be affected by the change.

"We remain confident that the vast majority of farms won't be affected by this," he said.

Environment, Farming and Rural Affairs Secretary Steve Reed said only about 500 out of the UK's 209,000 farms would be affected, according to Treasury calculations.

However, that number has been questioned by several farming groups and the Conservatives.

The NFU said the real number is about two-thirds, with its president Tom Bradshaw calling the government's figures "misleading" and accusing it of not understanding the sector.

The Country Land and Business Association (CLA) said the policy could affect 70,000 farms.

Conservative shadow farming minister Robbie Moore accused the government last week of "regurgitating" figures that represent "past claimants of agricultural property relief, not combined with business property relief" because he said the Treasury does not have that data.

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Agricultural property relief (APR) currently provides farmers 100% relief from paying inheritance tax on agricultural land or pasture used for rearing livestock or fish, and can include woodland and buildings, such as farmhouses, if they are necessary for that land to function.

Farmers can also claim business property relief (BPR), providing 50% or 100% relief on assets used by a trading business, which for farmers could include land, buildings, plant or machinery used by the business, farm shops and holiday cottages.

APR and BPR can often apply to the same asset, especially farmed land, but APR should be the priority, however BPR can be claimed in addition if APR does not cover the full value (e.g. if the land has development value above its agricultural value).

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Mr Moore said the Department for the Environment, Farming and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) and the Treasury have disagreed on how many farms will be impacted "by as much as 40%" due to the lack of data on farmers using BPR.

However, farming minister Daniel Zeichner said: "The figures are absolutely clear, fewer than 500 [farms] will be affected."

Lib Dem MP Tim Farron said last week1,400 farmers in Cumbria, where he is an MP, will be affected and will not be able to afford to pay the tax as many are on less than the minimum wage despite being asset rich.