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United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov for a 2nd clip successful 2 days connected Friday, with the warfare successful Ukraine the focal constituent of their huddle. They had met for 50 minutes connected the sidelines of the ASEAN acme successful Malaysia connected Thursday.
While campaigning for re-election, US President Donald Trump had promised to extremity the warfare successful Ukraine wrong 24 hours of taking office.
But much than 4 months later, the prospects of a ceasefire look arsenic distant arsenic ever, with Russia launching a fierce bombardment of Ukraine successful caller days.
After the Thursday meeting, Rubio told reporters that Trump was “disappointed and frustrated that there’s not been much flexibility connected the Russian side” to bring an extremity to the war successful Ukraine.
So has Trump’s presumption of the warfare changed – and what are his adjacent options?
Has Trump’s presumption connected Russia shifted?
Rubio’s comments travel astatine a clip erstwhile Trump has progressively been publically captious of Putin, aft antecedently accusing Ukraine of not wanting peace.
“We get a batch of b******t thrown astatine america by Putin. He’s precise bully each the time, but it turns retired to beryllium meaningless,” Trump said connected Tuesday.
Since February, the US has held abstracted talks with Russia and Ukraine, and brokered nonstop talks betwixt them successful May successful Istanbul for the archetypal clip since the aboriginal months of Russia’s full-fledged penetration successful 2022.
But portion Putin has offered little pauses successful fighting, helium has not accepted the US connection for an unconditional 30-day ceasefire. Ukraine has accepted that proposal. Russia argues that Ukraine could usage the truce to remobilise troops and rearm itself.
When asked by reporters this week whether helium would enactment connected his vexation with Putin, Trump responded: “I wouldn’t beryllium telling you. Don’t we privation to person a small surprise?”
However, experts caution against concluding that Trump was acceptable to enactment pugnacious against Russia.
“Western media is afloat of commentary connected what it calls Trump‘s ‘changing stance’ connected Putin. But arsenic yet, determination is nary crushed to deliberation that thing has changed astatine all,” Keir Giles, a elder consulting chap astatine the London-based Chatham House deliberation tank, told Al Jazeera.
“There is simply a question of optimism crossed the satellite that this mightiness yet pb to a alteration successful US policy. But, connected each erstwhile occasion, this has not happened.”
Indeed, aft the Thursday gathering betwixt Rubio and Lavrov, some sides suggested that they were consenting to proceed to prosecute diplomatically.
Arming Ukraine to combat disconnected Russia
In aboriginal July, the Trump medication announced a determination to “pause” arms proviso to Kyiv. A week later, helium reversed this decision.
“We’re going to nonstop immoderate much weapons. We person to. They person to beryllium capable to support themselves. They are getting deed precise hard now,” said Trump connected July 8.
On Thursday, Trump told NBC that these weapons would beryllium sold to NATO, which volition wage afloat for them. NATO volition past walk them connected to Ukraine.
“We’re sending weapons to NATO, and NATO is paying for those weapons, a 100 percent,” Trump told NBC, adding that the US volition beryllium sending Patriot missiles to the alliance.
Trump said this woody was agreed connected during the NATO acme successful The Hague successful June.
Trump had besides frozen assistance to Ukraine successful February, aft a falling retired with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy pursuing a rancorous gathering successful the White House. Trump accused Zelenskyy of talking the US into “spending $350 Billion Dollars, to spell into a War that couldn’t beryllium won”.
Trump resumed the supplies weeks later. Between January 2022 and April 2025, the US has provided Ukraine with astir $134bn successful aid, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
Trump’s MAGA [Make America Great Again] basal has been captious of the backing that the US provides Ukraine.
Following Trump’s announcement that the US volition resume sending weapons to Ukraine, respective blimpish Americans person responded with disappointment.
“I did not ballot for this,” wrote Derrick Evans connected X connected July 8. Evans was 1 of Trump’s supporters who stormed the US Capitol connected January 6, 2021 and was arrested, to beryllium pardoned by Trump successful January this year.
Conservative societal media duo Keith and Kevin Hodge wrote connected X connected July 8: “Who successful the hellhole is telling Trump that we request to nonstop much weapons to Ukraine?”
Sanctioning Russia
When asked connected July 8 astir his involvement successful a Congress measure proposing further sanctions connected Russia, Trump responded, “I’m looking astatine it precise strongly.”
Since the warfare successful Ukraine started successful 2022, the US and its allies person imposed astatine slightest 21,692 sanctions connected Russian individuals, media organisations, and institutions crossed sectors specified arsenic the military, energy, aviation, shipbuilding and telecommunications.
However, portion these sanctions person deed Russia’s economy, it has not collapsed the mode immoderate experts had predicted it would successful the aboriginal months of the war.
In caller months, Zelenskyy has repeatedly requested his allies successful the West to tighten sanctions connected Russia, to enactment unit connected Putin to extremity the war.
Most recently, Zelenskyy posted connected X connected Friday pursuing a Russian drone onslaught successful Kharkiv: “Sanctions indispensable beryllium strengthened. We are expecting the adoption of a caller sanctions package. Everything that volition enactment unit connected Russia and halt it indispensable beryllium implemented arsenic rapidly arsenic possible.”
A bipartisan Senate measure sponsored by Republican Senator Lindsey Graham aims to levy tariffs connected countries that import oil, state and uranium from Russia.
In 2023, crude petroleum, petroleum state and refined petroleum constituted astir 54 percent of full Russian exports, according to the Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC).
According to the OEC, China and India bargain a bulk of Russia’s lipid and state products.
In 2024, Russian lipid accounted for 35 percent of India’s full crude imports and 19 percent of China’s lipid imports. Turkiye besides imports Russian oil, with arsenic overmuch arsenic 58 percent of its refined petroleum imports sourced from Russia successful 2023.
But the West has not weaned itself disconnected Russia, either.
In 2024, European countries paid much than $700m to bargain Russian uranium products, according to an investigation by Brussels-based deliberation vessel Bruegel, based connected information from the European Union’s statistical office, Eurostat.
In precocious March this year, Trump expressed choler with Putin and threatened “secondary tariffs” connected immoderate state that buys Russian lipid if a ceasefire woody is not reached, but these tariffs were not imposed.
“If a caller sanctions measure does pass, and the United States does enforce costs connected Moscow for the archetypal clip during the existent administration, this would beryllium a extremist departure from Trump’s accordant policy,” Giles said.
“It remains to beryllium seen whether Trump volition successful information let this, oregon whether his deference to Putin volition mean helium continues to defy immoderate imaginable countermeasures against Moscow.”
Walking distant from the conflict
On April 18, US Secretary of State Rubio said his state mightiness “move on” from the Russia-Ukraine warfare if a ceasefire woody is not brokered.
“We are present reaching a constituent wherever we request to determine whether this is adjacent imaginable oregon not,” Rubio told reporters successful Paris aft talks betwixt American, Ukrainian and European officials.
“Because if it’s not, past I deliberation we’re conscionable going to determination on. It’s not our war. We person different priorities to absorption on,” Rubio continued.
On the aforesaid day, Trump echoed Rubio’s statements to reporters. However, Trump did not accidental that helium is acceptable to locomotion distant from bid negotiations.
“Well, I don’t privation to accidental that, but we privation to spot it end,” Trump said.
More diplomacy
The 2nd time of talks betwixt Rubio and Lavrov, however, suggests that the US has not fixed up connected diplomacy yet.
Rubio told reporters connected Thursday that the US and Russia person exchanged caller ideas for bid successful Ukraine. “I deliberation it’s a caller and a antithetic approach,” Rubio said, without offering immoderate details of what the “new approach” involved.
“I wouldn’t characterise it arsenic thing that guarantees a peace, but it’s a conception that, you know, that I’ll instrumentality backmost to the president,” Rubio added.
Following Rubio and Lavrov’s gathering connected Thursday, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs said successful a quality merchandise that the US and Russia had “a substantive and frank speech of views connected the colony successful Ukraine” and volition proceed constructive dialogue.
The connection added: “[Russia and the US] person reaffirmed communal committedness to searching for peaceful solutions to struggle situations and resuming Russian-US economical and humanitarian cooperation.”
English (US) ·