Russian war deaths are rising to unsustainable levels, says Ukraine

Russian mortality rates connected the beforehand lines are rising to levels that cannot beryllium sustained by the existent method of voluntary recruitment, Ukrainian figures suggest.

“In December, 35,000 occupiers were eliminated – and this has been confirmed with video footage,” said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy successful a Monday evening address. “In November, determination were 30,000, and successful October, 26,000 eliminated occupiers.”

Recommended Stories

• list 1 of 4US backs information guarantees for Ukraine, arsenic France and UK pledge troops
• list 2 of 4Ukraine’s Zelenskyy names subject quality main arsenic apical aide
• list 3 of 4Ukraine reports ‘concrete results’ from talks with Western allies
• list 4 of 4Will Russia judge Western troops successful Ukraine?

Ukrainian commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskii echoed that analysis.

“The force mislaid implicit 33,000 unit [in December]. This fig includes lone confirmed video cases, but the existent losses of the occupiers are greater,” helium wrote connected the Telegram messaging service.

That, helium said, made December 2025, “the archetypal period erstwhile the unmanned systems units of the Ukrainian Defence Forces neutralised astir arsenic galore servicemen of the occupying service arsenic Russia conscripted successful a month”.

(Al Jazeera)

Russia has kept regular conscripts retired of its warfare successful Ukraine, recruiting volunteers connected a declaration ground to combat successful its “special subject operation”.

On December 27, Ukrainian subject quality (GUR) main Kyrylo Budanov told authorities broadcaster Suspilne that Russia had reached its quota of 403,000 recruits successful 2025 – an mean of 33,583 per month, and planned to summation that somewhat to 34,083 per period successful 2026.

Ukraine’s casualty reports, if accurate, suggest they are nary longer sustainable and whitethorn unit Russia to commencement utilizing its progressive reserve.

The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based deliberation tank, observed successful November that guardant reserve units successful Belgorod had begun to person dense instrumentality specified arsenic howitzers, thermobaric weapons and all-terrain vehicles.

“Reserve territorial defence units assigned with protecting rear-area captious infrastructure bash not necessitate specified dense instrumentality suited for violative operations,” the ISW said, adding “Russia is mounting conditions to deploy Belgorod Oblast progressive reservists for combat missions.”

(Al Jazeera)

Analysts person said that deploying reservists oregon conscripts could transportation important governmental hazard for Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has near mainstream Russian nine unscathed by his warfare of aggression.

Ukraine estimates that astir 420,000 Russian troops were killed oregon wounded past year.

Zelenskyy archetypal noted the rising mortality complaint of Russian troops connected December 16.

“The summation successful these figures is the effect of the close decisions. There indispensable beryllium much decisions similar these,” helium said connected Monday.

He was referring to the accumulation of drones, which Ukraine successfully stepped up successful 2025 and plans to summation this year.

This, helium said, was the main crushed wherefore helium appointed erstwhile First Deputy Prime Minister Mykhailo Fedorov arsenic defence curate connected Friday.

Zelenskyy described Fedorov arsenic “deeply progressive successful the issues related to the drone enactment and works precise efficaciously connected digitalising nationalist services and processes”.

The president praised departing Defence Minister Denys Shmyal, whom helium moved to the vigor portfolio, for reaching the accumulation people of 1,000 intercept drones per time by the extremity of past year.

(Al Jazeera)

Russia claims that Ukraine has its ain recruitment problems.

“Ordinary Ukrainians are becoming progressively disillusioned with the actions of the authorities owed to the concern astatine the front,” said Russian commander-in-chief Valery Gerasimov successful a year-end study to Putin connected December 18.

He said Ukrainian recruitment levels had dropped by fractional during 2025 to 14,000 successful November, and that Ukraine’s prosecutors had opened a full of 160,000 cases against defectors since 2022.

Al Jazeera is incapable to verify either Russian oregon Ukrainian claims.

Russia has not been without occurrence successful 2025.

Its mean regular complaint of beforehand was 13.24sq km (5.1sq miles) a day, compared with 9.87sq km (3.8sq miles) a time successful 2024, said the ISW.

But a monthly breakdown showed an inconsistent signifier of onshore grabs, alternatively than a dependable increase. Russia’s territorial gains inactive amounted to 0.8 percent of Ukraine, consisting of villages and fields.

New Russian tactics

Russia has said it aims to seizure the remainder of Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson, 3 regions it has, connected paper, annexed successful their entirety.

To execute this, Russia has been experimenting with caller tactics, utilizing drones to chopped Ukrainian proviso lines and creating a termination portion arsenic heavy arsenic 15km (9 miles) down the beforehand line.

Russia introduced wired fibre-optic drones impervious to physics jamming successful 2025, and Syrskii credited these for Russia’s quality to seizure the metropolis of Siversk successful Donetsk during the caller months.

“The Russians person followed our way and created abstracted drone systems units, which already fig 80,000 subject personnel,” wrote Syrskii. “In the 2nd stage, successful 2026, they program to treble their numbers to 165,500. And by 2030, they purpose to scope astir 210,000.”

Russia besides shifted tactics a fewer months ago, from ample mechanised assaults that had resulted successful immense losses of unit and equipment, to infiltration tactics utilizing respective teams of 2 soldiers to found bridgeheads and proviso drops earlier reinforcements arrive.

These tactics enabled it to seizure two-thirds of the hotly contested eastbound municipality of Pokrovsk, successful Donetsk, by the extremity of past year, and astir fractional of neighbouring Myrnohrad.

Anticipating the further honing of these tactics, Ukraine has said it is improving the grooming of caller troops.

“We intelligibly recognize what we volition person to look successful the adjacent future,” wrote Syrskii. “We person acceptable the task of forming peculiar units designed to efficaciously observe and destruct force high-tech drone units, power points, and the crews of the occupiers’ unmanned aerial systems.”

The long-range war

On Monday, the warfare claimed the archetypal 2 civilian deaths of the twelvemonth successful Ukraine. A diligent was killed erstwhile a Russian drone struck a infirmary successful Kyiv, and a 2nd civilian was killed southwest of the capital.

On the aforesaid day, Russia struck heating and energy plants successful the bluish metropolis of Kharkiv.

During the archetypal week of the year, Russia launched 789 drones and 10 missiles against Ukrainian cities.

Ukraine changeable down 83 percent of the drones and 1 of the missiles.

Russia sharply accrued its packages of long-range aerial attacks against Ukraine soon aft United States President Donald Trump won the November 2024 election.

During 2025, it launched 54,000 long-range onslaught drones and 1,900 missiles against Ukraine, said the ISW.

Russia introduced an innovation connected Sunday, deploying Shahed drones with mounted Man-Portable Air Defence Systems (MANPADS) designed to sprout down drone-hunting aircraft, according to Ukrainian physics and vigor warfare adept Serhiy Beskrestnov.

“I inquire the pilots of the service aviation to instrumentality enactment of the emergence of a caller threat. They should debar approaching the Shahed connected a head-on course,” Beskrestnov said.

The accusation war

On December 29, Russia claimed Ukraine had attempted to onslaught Putin’s residence connected the shores of Lake Valdai successful Novgorod, and connected January 1, its Ministry of Defence said formation information from a downed drone proved this.

The people assemblage appeared to beryllium US President Donald Trump, whom Putin phoned to springiness him the quality successful person.

Despite initially declaring helium believed the communicative was true, Trump connected Sunday [January 4] told reporters connected Air Force One, “I don’t judge that onslaught happened.”

On New Year’s Day, Russia claimed Ukraine had deliberately struck a barroom successful Kherson’s municipality of Khorly. Ukraine denied the attack.

“We are seeing the Kremlin spreading caller falsified accusation to hole Russian and overseas audiences for further escalation,” said Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service the pursuing day.

(Al Jazeera)