S&P expects 'meaningful tariff revenue' to offset Trump tax bill impact, maintains U.S. credit rating

S&P Global said it expects "meaningful" national authorities gross from President Donald Trump's wide tariff policies to "generally offset weaker" gross expected from Trump's precocious enacted major tax-and-spending bill.

S&P Global cited that outlook connected Monday arsenic it maintained its AA+ rating connected semipermanent U.S. sovereign indebtedness and its A-1+ standing connected "short-term unsolicited sovereign credit."

But the institution warned, "We could little the standing implicit the adjacent 2 to 3 years if already precocious deficits increase, reflecting governmental inability to incorporate rising spending oregon to negociate gross implications from changes successful the taxation code."

It besides cautioned that the ratings could "come nether unit if governmental developments measurement connected the spot of American institutions and the effectiveness of semipermanent policymaking oregon independency of the Federal Reserve."

"This, successful turn, could jeopardize the dollar's presumption arsenic the world's starring reserve currency--a cardinal recognition strength," S&P Global said.

Trump has imposed wide-ranging and often precocious tariffs connected imports from different countries since regaining the White House successful January.

In July, Trump's alleged "Big Beautiful Bill" became law. The authorities imposes cuts to national authorities spending, portion besides cutting taxation rates.

On July 21, the Congressional Budget Office estimated that the instrumentality volition effect successful a nett summation successful the national fund shortage of $3.4 trillion from 2025 done 2034.

"That summation successful the shortage is estimated to effect from a alteration successful nonstop spending of $1.1 trillion and a alteration successful revenues of $4.5 trillion," the CBO said astatine the time.

On Monday, S&P Global said, "Amid the emergence successful effectual tariff rates, we expect meaningful tariff gross to mostly offset weaker fiscal outcomes that mightiness different beryllium associated with the caller fiscal legislation, which contains some cuts and increases successful taxation and spending."

Last week, the Treasury Department said that successful July, determination was a astir $21 cardinal summation successful U.S. customs work collections arsenic a effect of Trump's tariff policy. However, the national fund shortage grew by astir 20% for the aforesaid month, according to the department.

But S&P Global said its "outlook remains stable, reflecting our anticipation of continued resilience successful the U.S. economy; credible, effectual monetary argumentation execution; high, but not rising, fiscal deficits that underpin the summation successful nett wide authorities debt; and the $5 trillion summation successful the indebtedness ceiling."

"The unchangeable outlook indicates our anticipation that though fiscal shortage outcomes won't meaningfully improve, we don't task a persistent deterioration implicit the adjacent respective years," S&P said.

"This incorporates our presumption that changes underway successful home and planetary policies won't measurement connected the resilience and diverseness of the U.S. economy," the institution said.

"And, successful turn, wide gross buoyancy, including robust tariff income, volition offset immoderate fiscal slippage from taxation cuts and spending increases."