Singapore warns of slowdown in second half of the year as it keeps monetary policy steady

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Singapore retains its rubric arsenic the astir costly metropolis for high-net-worth-individuals, according to Julius Baer's 2025 Global Wealth and Lifestyle report.

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Singapore's cardinal slope warned connected Wednesday that the city-state's system is "projected to mean successful the 2nd fractional of 2025 from its beardown gait successful [the archetypal half]," arsenic it kept its monetary argumentation unchanged.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore said it would clasp the width and level astatine which its argumentation set is centered amid commercialized concerns from the Trump administration.

"In particular, the trade-related sectors should spot immoderate pullback," the cardinal slope said successful its monetary argumentation statement.

"Prospects for the Singapore system stay taxable to important uncertainty, particularly successful 2026. Changes successful effectual tariff rates worldwide could interaction the show of Singapore's externally-oriented sectors."

Financial volatility and geopolitical shocks could deepen the interaction of the planetary slowdown and adhd unit connected Singapore's maturation outlook, MAS said.

Singapore's export-dependent system dodged a method recession successful the 2nd quarter, with growth expanding astatine 1.4% 4th implicit 4th and defying expectations of a 0.5% contraction.

On a year-over-year basis, Singapore's GDP grew 4.3% successful the 2nd quarter, accelerating from 4.1% successful the archetypal 3 months and beating expectations. 

Unlike astir nations, Singapore does not usage involvement rates to negociate its monetary policy, but alternatively strengthens oregon weakens the Singapore dollar against a handbasket of its main trading partners successful a argumentation band.

The nonstop speech complaint is not set; instead, the SGD tin determination wrong the acceptable argumentation band, whose precise levels are not disclosed.

The determination comes aft the cardinal slope had eased monetary argumentation doubly earlier successful 2025, and said that it is present "in an due presumption to respond to risks to medium-term terms stability."'

Oxford Economics economist Sheana Yue said the determination by MAS was astir apt owed to Singapore's beardown GDP show successful the archetypal fractional of the year.

However, Yue besides pointed to the MAS' connection of an "appropriate position", which suggested that the cardinal slope is unfastened to adjusting its argumentation successful the aboriginal arsenic U.S. tariffs bite.

OCBC's Chief Economist Selena Ling agreed, saying that the model for further easing is inactive unfastened successful October, adding that Singapore's debased ostentation means that determination is " nary urgency successful presumption of timing to easiness conscionable yet."

Singapore's ostentation astir precocious remained astatine a four-year debased of 0.8% successful June, with halfway ostentation — which strips retired costs of backstage transport and accommodation — astatine 0.6%.

On the maturation front, Ling said that portion momentum volition mean for the remainder of the year, "the hazard of a sharper maturation slump has receded, partially with the emergence of much commercialized deals with the U.S. medication arsenic good arsenic much benign fiscal conditions."

Singapore's system is heavy babelike connected exports, with exports making up 178.8% of the city-state's GDP in 2024, according to the World Bank.

"It's unclear if Singapore volition broker a deal, though it whitethorn alternatively autumn wrong the 10%-15% bracket for smaller economies," Yue from Oxford Economics said.

On Tuesday, Singapore Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong reportedly stated the U.S. was "non-committal" connected whether the level of tariffs volition stay astatine 10% for Singapore imports into the U.S.

Gan was successful the U.S. from July 20 to 26, and helium said that "the U.S. was not successful the temper to sermon immoderate discount to the baseline tariff."

Singapore had been deed with the 10% levy contempt moving a commercialized shortage with the U.S. and having a escaped commercialized statement since 2004.

The city-state has neither received a "tariff letter" nor travel to a commercialized woody with the U.S. since U.S. President Donald Trump's alleged "liberation day" tariffs announcement connected April 2.

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