Starmer to play it safe and avoid migrant cap figure in government 'relaunch'

Sir Keir Starmer's first five months in office have hardly been smooth sailing - so it's perhaps not surprising the government is already planning something of a relaunch.

From cutting pensioners' winter fuel allowance to charging farmers inheritance tax, Labour argue they were forced into choppy waters thanks to a £22bn budgetary black hole below the waterline of the ship of state.

But they've made a whole series of unforced navigational errors too - from "freebiegate" to Sue Gray and Transport Secretary Louise Haigh going overboard.

Labour insist this week's "Plan for Change" is no reset - but a long-planned "new phase" of government.

We're told Sir Keir will put forward a series of measurable "milestones" - targets the government is promising to hit on voters' key priorities ahead of the next election.

The idea is to turn the five long-term and slightly woolly national missions we heard about in the general election into measurable progress in the shorter term.

As Rishi Sunak found to his cost, setting out such clear numerical pledges to the electorate is a gamble - but Labour have clearly decided they need to do more to show voters they're taking action.

We understand the milestones will include a focus on NHS waiting lists, early years development, energy, crime, improving disposable income and housebuilding.

But from what minister Pat McFadden said to Sir Trevor Phillips on Sky News on Sunday morning, there won't be a specific target on migration, although they will be "talking about" the issue.

That's despite small boat arrivals reaching 20,000 since Labour took power and net migration figures recording a record high of nearly a million in the year to June 2023.

While they came down to 728,000 last year, the numbers have quadrupled since Brexit.

Sir Keir gave a speech last week accusing his Conservative predecessors of operating an "open border" policy and promising to reform the points-based immigration system.

Mr McFadden was rather more nuanced today, telling Sir Trevor that while they "want legal migration to come down", the country's needs will "ebb and flow depending on how your economy is doing".

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The Tories hit back on that, with Victoria Atkins arguing "voters want to see some certainty".

And while Kemi Badenoch has promised a cap on numbers, Labour has no plans to do so.

It's important to point out the Tories didn't have a legal immigration target either when they were actually in power - David Cameron's promise to reduce numbers to the "tens of thousands" coming back to haunt him.

But perhaps Sir Keir has also learned from Mr Sunak's infamous promise to "stop the boats" that not talking numbers is safer on this most sensitive issue.