‘Strategic handshake’: How Pakistan is wooing Trump with critical minerals

Islamabad, Pakistan – When Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif meets US President Donald Trump astatine the White House connected Thursday, helium volition beryllium carrying with him a committedness dissimilar immoderate that his predecessors person taken to specified meetings.

For respective years, Pakistan’s superior strategical worth to the United States was its relation arsenic a information partner, archetypal during the Soviet concern of Afghanistan and past during the alleged “war connected terror”.

Recommended Stories

• list 1 of 4Lithium Americas’ banal surges amid imaginable US authorities stake
• list 2 of 4Amid US-Pakistan thaw, 2 cardinal challenges: Iran and China
• list 3 of 4Pakistan to nominate ‘genuine peacemaker’ Trump for Nobel Peace Prize
• list 4 of 4Trump’s Pakistan embrace: ‘Tactical romance’ oregon a caller ‘inner circle’?

That narration dilatory collapsed amid accusations from increasing sections of the US strategical assemblage – and Trump himself – that Islamabad was duplicitous and couldn’t beryllium trusted, particularly aft American forces recovered Osama bin Laden successful Abbottabad, Pakistan.

But a high-profile signing ceremonial astatine the Pakistan PM’s residence earlier this period offered a glimpse of the country’s caller connection to the US. On September 8, 2 memorandums of knowing (MoUs) were signed successful a ceremonial attended by Sharif and Pakistan’s service main Field Marshal Asim Munir, alongside elder officials from some Islamabad and Washington.

The header statement – connected Pakistan supplying captious minerals and uncommon world elements to the US – followed Trump’s July pledge to enactment with Pakistan to make its “massive lipid reserves”. A US steadfast is investing $500m successful Pakistani minerals.

So far, Pakistan’s attack appears to beryllium working, amid a broader rapprochement with the US that fewer analysts had predicted erstwhile Trump – who successful 2018 claimed that Islamabad had fixed Washington “nothing but lies and deceit” – returned to bureau earlier this year.

Trump thanked Pakistan successful a March code to the US Congress for its enactment successful combatting “terrorism”, and his subject leaders person likewise credited the state for their partnership. Pakistan publicly endorsed the US president for a Nobel Prize successful June aft a four-day conflict with India that Washington and Islamabad importune ended with his mediation.

The 19 percent tariff complaint that Trump has imposed connected Pakistani goods is the lowest of each South Asian nations — India, Pakistan’s rival and America’s preferred spouse implicit the past 2 decades, has been slapped with 50 percent tariffs. The US president has hosted Munir astatine the White House — the archetypal clip ever for a Pakistani service main who is not caput of state. And Sharif connected Thursday volition go the archetypal Pakistani PM since 2019 to sojourn the US president’s residence.

It is simply a striking pivot from Trump, and analysts accidental that Pakistan’s minerals committedness could play a cardinal catalyst role. Washington is seeking sources of minerals and uncommon earths it views arsenic indispensable to industry, defence and the clean-energy transition, and Pakistan whitethorn beryllium an attractive, if arsenic yet under-tested, supplier.

“This is simply a strategical handshake wrapped successful economical opportunity, assets diplomacy and symbolic recalibration,” a erstwhile Pakistani three-star service wide told Al Jazeera connected information of anonymity.

“This isn’t conscionable astir rocks successful the ground. It is astir who controls the future’s gathering blocks. For Pakistan, it’s a accidental to assertion its mineral communicative and necktie it to nationalist pridefulness and legacy. For the US, it’s a strategical determination connected the planetary chessboard of assets politics.”

From MoU to mine, what was really agreed?

At a Pakistani minerals acme successful April, PM Sharif argued that if Pakistan harvested mineral reserves helium said were valued astatine “trillions of dollars”, it could alteration its economy, which is buckling nether the value of $130bn successful outer debt.

Five months later, the cardinal statement was signed betwixt the Frontier Works Organisation (FWO) – a military-run engineering and operation organisation headed by a two-star wide – and United States Strategic Metals (USSM), a Missouri-based institution founded successful 2018.

USSM says it specialises successful recycling captious minerals from spent lithium-ion batteries and works connected mining metals specified arsenic cobalt, nickel and copper.

According to Sharif’s office, the concern volition instantly statesman the export of “readily disposable minerals” – including antimony, copper, gold, tungsten and uncommon world elements – from Pakistan.

A backstage United States firm, USSM, signed a memorandum of knowing with Pakistan’s military-run Frontier Works Organisation [Handout/Pakistan Prime Minister’s Office]

The connection added that the MoU aims to spur the eventual constitution of a specialised refinery successful Pakistan to nutrient “intermediate and finished products dedicated to gathering the rapidly increasing request of the US market”.

“The archetypal signifier of this woody is envisaged astatine astir $500 cardinal of investments into Pakistan’s captious minerals sector,” the premier minister’s bureau said, adding that consequent steps volition absorption connected exploring the country’s wider assets basal to identify, extract and process captious minerals.

The MoU is not a binding mining licence, rather, analysts say, it is an early-stage instrumentality that signals interest.

“From the USSM’s broadside an MoU gives goodwill astatine aboriginal signifier successful imaginable projects that whitethorn come, portion the wide quality of the MoU means that immoderate deposits amusement the astir imaginable quickest tin travel online quickly,” Zain Kazmi, main operating serviceman of Islamabad-based Capital Strategies Group and an advisor to the Washington DC-based Critical Minerals Forum, told Al Jazeera.

A elder authorities geologist with cognition astir the statement said the absorption is connected “strategic minerals and uncommon world elements” and pointed to deposits specified arsenic copper and antimony that the FWO is already moving on.

“FWO is already operating mines successful Waziristan portion successful the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. They besides person exploration licence successful Chaghi Belt successful Balochistan province, arsenic good arsenic successful Gilgit-Baltistan region,” the authoritative said, speaking connected information of anonymity due to the fact that they are not authorised to talk to the media.

But helium cautioned that mineral projects are typically semipermanent ventures, lasting for “five to 15 years”.

“Minerals improvement projects instrumentality a agelong word earlier they travel to fruition. However, it appears that nether this MoU, the program is to archetypal export antimony, copper and different readily disposable products, followed by the medium-term task of installing processing plants, and lastly, exploration successful assorted areas,” helium said.

What are uncommon world elements and captious minerals?

A fast-moving technological race betwixt China and the United States has driven aggravated request for uncommon world elements and different captious minerals.

Rare world minerals are a radical of 17 metallic elements utilized successful everything from smartphones and electrical vehicles to semiconductors and defence systems.

Despite their name, they are not particularly uncommon successful the Earth’s crust. But they are often dispersed oregon mixed with different elements, which makes extraction technically hard and costly.

The US Geological Survey (USGS) and the Department of the Interior support a database of “critical minerals” for the United States – 54 elements connected the latest database see copper and metallic – galore of which are indispensable to the country’s cleanable vigor modulation and high-tech manufacturing.

In its minerals commodities summary successful January 2025, the USGS listed 15 countries and territories with mapped uncommon world deposits; Pakistan was not among them.

From Balochistan to Gilgit – wherever are Pakistan’s minerals?

Moin Raza Khan, a erstwhile managing manager of state-owned Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL) and present a Karachi-based consultant, estimates that astir a 4th of Pakistan’s landmass contains stone formations with a “strong likelihood” of hosting captious minerals.

The mines of Reko Diq are considered to beryllium among the world’s largest copper deposits [File Photo: Naseem James/AP Photo]

Much of the imaginable lies successful Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and the distant highlands of Gilgit-Baltistan – areas that look harsh terrain, sedate security concerns, oregon both.

As Khan enactment it, immoderate regions endure “either a terrain problem, oregon governmental problem, oregon both”.

Balochistan, location to astir 15 cardinal radical successful a state of astir 240 million, is Pakistan’s poorest state contempt immense natural-resource wealth.

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa has besides seen surges successful violence. Islamabad alleges that equipped groups transverse from Afghanistan into tribal districts, including South and North Waziristan, which are believed to clasp immense mineral reserves.

The astir important, economically, are copper deposits successful Balochistan: Saindak and Reko Diq.

Saindak, adjacent the Iran border, was discovered successful the 1970s and commercialized mining began nether China’s Metallurgical Construction Corporation (MCC) successful the aboriginal 2000s. Copper exports information successful 2024 amusement Saindak contributed $842m, up from $777m the twelvemonth before.

Reko Diq, situated little than 150 kilometres from Saindak, is wide regarded arsenic 1 of the world’s largest underdeveloped deposits of rocks laden with copper and gold.

It is being developed by Canada’s Barrick Mining, which holds a 50 percent involvement portion the remainder is divided betwixt national and provincial governments and authorities entities.

“Reko Diq is 1 of the world’s largest underdeveloped copper-gold deposits. The proved and probable reserves are estimated to incorporate astir 15 cardinal tonnes of copper and 26 cardinal ounces of gold,” Khan told Al Jazeera.

He estimated the worth of contained metallic successful the big stone astatine implicit $190bn, with copper accounting for astir $138bn and golden astir $53bn.

But hard information are limited. Muhammad Yaqub Shah, a erstwhile manager of the Pakistan Mineral Development Corporation, said that geologically, Pakistan apt hosts large mineral prospects.

But helium added that elaborate exploration is required to systematically and scientifically research and measure the potential.

Kazmi, the advisor for Critical Minerals Forum, agreed.

“In presumption of deposit sizes, determination are nary perfectly measured reserves successful Pakistan too Reko Diq. The minerals manufacture successful Pakistan is nascent and growing, each the projects are greenfield, truthful it volition instrumentality clip to verify these reserves,” helium said.

Promises versus proof

While the authorities lauded the MoU, Al Jazeera’s questions for remark from the petroleum curate and different officials went unanswered.

(Al Jazeera)

Critics warned astir “grand estimations” and urged caution, pointing to a drawstring of past claims that person failed to materialise.

That scepticism is rooted successful precedent. On July 31, Trump posted connected Truth Social that the US would enactment with Pakistan to make its lipid reserves, a declaration that near galore observers perplexed, fixed Pakistan’s constricted known crude deposits.

Pakistan spends astir 31 percent of its import measure connected fuel, and imports astir 80 percent of its petroleum needs.

In May 2019, then-Prime Minister Imran Khan announced a consortium drilling disconnected the Arabian Sea had deed an “oil and state jackpot” that would destruct Pakistan’s substance needs for decades.

But the wells were soon abandoned erstwhile they failed to output commercially viable reserves.

Similar, unverified claims resurfaced successful September 2024 erstwhile a elder subject authoritative spoke of discoveries that could “change the destiny of the country”.

Earlier this month, a retired naval serviceman said Pakistan and China had jointly identified perchance ample state deposits during a survey – claims that, truthful far, stay unverified.

Meanwhile, Khan, the Karachi-based analyst, questioned whether USSM, the US firm, had the expertise to execute the exploration and mining needed for Pakistan to present its mineral dreams.

USSM’s ain illustration emphasises recycling metals from spent lithium-ion batteries and reprocessing tailings from cobalt mines astatine its Missouri headquarters. Tailings are the leftover worldly aft ore processing that tin incorporate residual traces of different metals, perchance including uncommon world elements.

“It appears that astatine slightest for now, each they are looking for is to export the concentrate, and enactment similar a trading institution alternatively than a mining company,” Khan said.

Still, Kazmi said, an MoU with USSM tin service arsenic a utile early-stage awesome that attracts larger, higher-quality investors. It marks “the accomplishment of high-quality involvement successful the mining assemblage successful the state and opens the doorway for different top-tier mineral processors and mining investors to participate the Pakistani market,” helium said.

Minerals and geopolitical balancing act

But the captious minerals woody with the US could besides trial Pakistan’s geopolitical balancing capabilities similar ne'er before.

Over the past decade, Pakistan has deepened economical ties with China done the $62bn China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a web of infrastructure projects.

Chinese investments, peculiarly successful Balochistan, person provoked section resentment, wherever residents impeach Chinese firms of “stealing section resources,” and nationalist rebel fighters person repeatedly attacked Chinese unit and installations.

Official figures suggest astir 20,000 Chinese nationals unrecorded successful Pakistan. At slightest 20 person been killed since 2021 successful attacks tied to these projects.

For Beijing, information is simply a superior concern, and the accomplishment of US concern successful the aforesaid regions could complicate an already fraught representation successful provinces specified arsenic Balochistan, analysts caution.

Uzair Younus, main astatine the US advisory steadfast The Asia Group, said the minerals MoU signals Pakistan’s openness to Western investors successful strategical sectors and that Balochistan volition not beryllium an exclusive sphere for Chinese influence.

Still, “for the Chinese, this is simply a nett affirmative improvement excessively arsenic American interests successful these sectors tin besides assistance alleviate the insurgency, fuelled by determination proxies, successful Balochistan,” Younus told Al Jazeera. Simply put, immoderate attackers would request to hazard the ire of not conscionable Pakistan and China, but the US, too.

If the section system gains from US investments, that, too, would payment China, accidental experts.

“This would let unlocking of commercialized opportunities which are cardinal for sustaining payments to Chinese investors and creditors that person lent wealth to Pakistan for infrastructure projects,” Younus said.

(Al Jazeera)

Islamabad-based information expert Amir Rana said that “while China mightiness person been hoping that they could person had the monopoly connected Pakistan’s minerals,” helium does not foresee the relationship  “being harmed successful immoderate large way”.

Kazmi argued that commercialized prudence favours moving with aggregate partners.

“No state has been fixed carte blanche connected Pakistani resources too Pakistan itself, which holds an inalienable close to those deposits,” helium said.

Communities, information and revenue-sharing

However, Pakistan has a agelong roadworthy up successful presumption of showcasing tangible advancement and outcomes that pb to commercialized payoffs for investors, according to Washington, DC-based Younus.

“If the state fails to bash so, the position that Pakistan’s dysfunction makes it a unspeakable spot for doing concern volition beryllium reinforced further,” helium said.

The retired service wide who spoke connected information of anonymity added that the existent translation of regions racked by unit and instability volition necessitate “more than conscionable overseas capital”.

“Achieving occurrence successful this assemblage demands a displacement from militarised power to inclusive development, wherever section communities are empowered arsenic stewards of their land, royalties are transparently shared, and infrastructure serves some extraction and dignity,” the wide said.

“Only by reframing mineral wealthiness arsenic a nationalist legacy, alternatively than a contested commodity, tin Pakistan crook its buried imaginable into a instauration for unity, sovereignty and determination influence.”