Tajikistan-Taliban border clashes: What’s behind them, why it affects China

Tensions are flaring on the Tajikistan-Afghanistan borderline successful Central Asia with the Tajik authorities reporting aggregate equipped incursions this month, straining its fragile narration with Afghanistan’s Taliban leaders.

More than a twelve radical person been killed successful attacks by men whom Tajik authorities telephone “terrorists” and the resulting clashes with Tajik forces, officials successful Dushanbe and Beijing said. Victims see Chinese nationals moving successful distant areas of the mountainous erstwhile Soviet republic.

In the latest warring this week, astatine slightest 5 radical were killed successful Tajikistan‘s Shamsiddin Shokhin district, including “three terrorists”, officials said.

Tajikistan has agelong opposed the emergence of the Taliban successful Afghanistan, a state it shares a mostly unsecured 1,340km (830-mile) borderline with.

Despite cautious diplomatic engagement betwixt the 2 countries to set to caller determination realities, analysts said, the frequence of the caller borderline clashes risks eroding the Taliban’s credibility and raises questions astir its capableness to enforce bid and security.

Here is each we cognize astir the clashes on the Tajik-Afghan borderline and wherefore they matter:

A Taliban emblem flies connected apical of a span crossed the Panj stream connected the Afghan-Tajik borderline arsenic seen from Tajikistan’s Darvoz territory [File: Amir Isaev/AFP]

What’s happening connected the Tajik-Afghan border?

The borderline runs on the Panj stream done the remote, mountainous terrain of confederate Tajikistan and northeastern Afghanistan.

On Thursday, Tajikistan’s State Committee for National Security said successful a connection that “three members of a violent organisation” crossed into Tajik territory connected Tuesday. The committee added that the men were located the pursuing greeting and exchanged occurrence with Tajik borderline guards. Five people, including the 3 intruders, were killed, it said.

Tajik officials did not sanction the equipped men oregon specify which radical they belonged to. The officials, however, said they seized 3 M-16 rifles, a Kalashnikov battle rifle, 3 foreign-made pistols with silencers, 10 manus grenades, a night-vision scope and explosives astatine the scene.

Dushanbe said this was the 3rd onslaught originating from Afghanistan’s Badakhshan state successful the past period that has resulted successful the deaths of its personnel.

These attacks, Tajik officials said connected Thursday, “prove that the Taliban authorities is demonstrating superior and repeated irresponsibility and non-commitment successful fulfilling its planetary obligations and accordant promises to guarantee information … and to combat members of violent organisations”.

The Tajik connection called connected the Taliban to “apologise to the radical of Tajikistan and instrumentality effectual measures to guarantee information on the shared border”.

Tajikistan has not suggested what the motive for the attacks whitethorn be, but the assaults person appeared to people Chinese companies and nationals moving successful the area.

Workers of Talco Gold, a associated Tajik-Chinese mining firm, talk successful beforehand of a poster of Chinese President Xi Jinping and Tajik President Emomali Rahmon astatine the Saritag antimony excavation successful occidental Tajikistan [File: AFP]

How is China progressive successful each this?

Beijing is Tajikistan’s largest creditor and 1 of its astir influential economical partners with a important footprint successful infrastructure, mining and different border-region projects.

China and Tajikistan besides stock a 477km (296-mile) borderline moving done the high-altitude Pamir Mountains successful eastbound Tajikistan, adjacent to China’s Xinjiang region.

Two attacks were launched against Chinese companies and nationals successful the past week of November. On November 26, a drone equipped with an explosive instrumentality attacked a compound belonging to Shohin SM, a backstage Chinese gold-mining company, successful the distant Khatlon portion connected the Tajik-Afghan border, sidesplitting 3 Chinese citizens.

In a 2nd onslaught connected November 30, a radical of men equipped with guns opened occurrence connected workers employed by the state-owned China Road and Bridge Corporation, sidesplitting astatine slightest 2 radical successful Tajikistan’s Darvoz district.

Tajik officials said those attacks had originated from villages successful Afghanistan’s Badakhshan state but did not disclose immoderate affiliation oregon motive down the attacks.

Chinese nationals person besides travel nether onslaught successful Pakistan’s Balochistan state and on the Afghanistan-Pakistan border.

China’s embassy successful Dushanbe advised Chinese companies and unit to evacuate the borderline area. Chinese officials demanded “that Tajikistan instrumentality each indispensable measures to guarantee the information of Chinese enterprises and citizens successful Tajikistan”.

Who is carrying retired these attacks?

While the attackers person not been identified, analysts and observers judge the attacks transportation the hallmarks of the ISIL (ISIS) affiliate successful Khorasan Province (ISKP), which, they said, aims to discredit Afghanistan’s Taliban leaders.

“The ISKP has attacked foreigners wrong Afghanistan and carried retired attacks connected foreigners wrong Afghanistan arsenic a cardinal pillar of their strategy,” said Ibraheem Bahiss, a Kabul-based expert astatine the International Crisis Group deliberation tank.

“The purpose is to shatter the Taliban’s representation arsenic a information supplier with whom the determination governments should engage,” Bahiss told Al Jazeera.

Taliban members enactment successful a rally to people the 3rd day of the Taliban’s seizure of Kabul successful the Afghan superior connected August 14, 2024. [Sayed Hassib/Reuters]

How has the Taliban reacted to these attacks?

Kabul expressed its “deep sorrow” implicit the killings of Chinese workers connected November 28.

The Taliban blamed the unit connected an unnamed equipped radical which, it said, is “striving to make chaos and instability successful the portion and to sow distrust among countries”, and it assured Tajikistan of its afloat cooperation.

After this week’s clashes, Sirajuddin Haqqani, the Taliban’s interior minister, said Kabul remains committed to the 2020 Doha Agreement, its woody with the United States for a phased overseas unit withdrawal from Afghanistan successful speech for Taliban commitments to forestall Afghanistan from being utilized arsenic a basal for attacking different countries.

Addressing a constabulary cadet graduation ceremonial astatine the National Police Academy successful Kabul connected Thursday, Haqqani said Afghanistan posed nary menace to different countries and the doorway to dialog remains open.

“We privation to code problems, distrust oregon misunderstandings done dialogue. We person passed the trial of confrontation. We whitethorn beryllium anemic successful resources, but our religion and volition are strong,” helium said, adding that information had improved to the grade that Taliban officials present question crossed the state without weapons.

The Taliban insists that nary “terrorist groups” are operating from Afghanistan. However, successful a caller report, the United Nations sanctions-monitoring committee cited the beingness of aggregate equipped groups, including ISKP, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, al-Qaeda, the Turkistan Islamic Party, Jamaat Ansarullah and Ittehad-ul-Mujahideen Pakistan.

Jamaat Ansarullah is simply a Tajik radical linked to al-Qaeda-aligned networks and progressive chiefly successful bluish Afghanistan adjacent the Tajik border.

Afghans question on a borderline roadworthy arsenic seen from Tajikistan’s Darvoz territory [File: Amir Isaev/AFP]

How are relations betwixt Tajikistan and the Taliban?

For decades, the narration betwixt Tajikistan and the Taliban has been defined by heavy ideological hostility and taste mistrust with Dushanbe 1 of the group’s fiercest critics successful Central Asia.

In the 1990s, Tajikistan aligned with the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance, led by Afghan subject commandant and erstwhile Defence Minister Ahmad Shah Massoud.

After the Taliban’s instrumentality to powerfulness successful Afghanistan successful August 2021, Tajikistan stood arsenic the lone holdout among its neighbours successful refusing to officially recognise the caller government.

However, pragmatic diplomatic engagement softly began astir 2023, driven by economical necessity and shared information fears implicit the beingness of ISKP. Stepping up the restoration of relations, a high-level Tajik delegation visited Kabul successful November, the archetypal specified sojourn since the Taliban’s instrumentality to power.

But the 2 governments proceed to commercialized accusations that the different is harbouring “terrorists”, the large thorn remaining successful their bilateral relationship, and that cause smuggling is occurring crossed their border.

The Tajik-Afghan borderline has agelong been a large trafficking way for Afghan heroin and methamphetamine into Central Asia and onwards to Russia and Europe, exploiting the area’s rugged terrain and anemic policing.

“The rising frequence [of the clashes] is caller and absorbing and raises a point: whether we mightiness beryllium seeing a caller menace emerging,” Bahiss said.

Badakshan province, from which Tajik authorities said the attacks connected Chinese nationals originate, presents a analyzable information concern for the Taliban arsenic it has struggled to stem the menace from equipped absorption groups, Bahiss added.

This information contented has been further analyzable by the Taliban’s crackdown connected poppy cultivation successful the province, helium said. The Taliban has faced absorption to this argumentation from farmers successful the north. This is mostly due to the fact that the terrain of Badakshan means poppies are the lone viable currency crop.

Afghanistan’s Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi called his Tajik counterpart aboriginal this period to explicit regret astir the attacks connected Chinese nationals and accidental his authorities was prepared to boost practice betwixt their borderline forces [Anushree Fadnavis/Reuters]

How is the Taliban faring with different neighbours?

Since the Taliban retook power of Afghanistan successful 2021, immoderate of its neighbours person maintained a pragmatic transactional narration portion others person not.

Relations with Pakistan, antecedently its patron, person particularly deteriorated. Islamabad accuses Kabul of harbouring fighters of Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, besides known arsenic the Pakistan Taliban. Tensions implicit this contented boiled implicit successful November erstwhile Pakistan launched aerial strikes successful Kabul, Khost and different provinces, prompting retaliatory Taliban attacks connected borderline posts.

Dozens of radical were killed earlier a ceasefire was brokered by Qatar and Turkiye. However, some sides person engaged successful warring since, blaming each different for breaking the fragile truce.

The Taliban denies Islamabad’s allegations and has blamed Pakistan for its “own information failures”.

Meanwhile, the Taliban is present invested successful developing a caller relationship with Pakistan’s archrival, India, with delegations visiting Indian cities for commercialized and information discussions. New Delhi was earlier portion of the anti-Taliban alliance. However, that attack has changed with the deteriorating ties betwixt Pakistan and the Taliban.