The logo of an Apple Store is seen reflected connected the solid exterior of a Samsung flagship store successful Shanghai, China Monday, Oct. 20, 2025.
Wang Gang | Feature China | Future Publishing | Getty Images
A shortage of representation chips fueled by artificial quality players is apt to origin a terms emergence successful smartphones successful 2026 and a driblet successful shipments, Counterpoint Research said successful a enactment connected Tuesday.
Smartphone shipments could autumn 2.1% successful 2026, according to Counterpoint, versus a erstwhile outlook of flat-to-positive growth.
Shipments bash not equate to income but are a measurement of request arsenic they way the fig of devices being sent to income channels similar stores.
Meanwhile, the mean selling terms of smartphones could leap 6.9% year-on-year successful 2026, Counterpoint said, successful examination to a erstwhile forecast of a 3.6% rise.
This is being driven by circumstantial spot shortages and bottlenecks successful the semiconductor proviso chain, which are pushing up constituent prices.
The continued build-out of information centres globally has hiked request for systems developed by Nvidia, which successful crook uses components designed by SK Hynix and Samsung — the 2 biggest suppliers of alleged representation chips.
However, a circumstantial constituent called dynamic random-access representation oregon DRAM, which is utilized successful AI information centers, is besides captious for smartphones. DRAM prices person surged this twelvemonth arsenic request outstrips supply.
For low-end smartphones priced beneath $200, the measure of materials outgo has accrued 20% to 30% since the opening of the year, Counterpoint said. The measure of materials is the outgo of producing a azygous smartphone.
The mid and high-end smartphone conception has seen worldly costs emergence 10% to 15%.
"Memory prices could emergence different 40% done Q2 2026, resulting successful BoM costs expanding anyplace betwixt 8% and implicit 15% supra existent elevated levels," Counterpoint said.
The rising terms of components could beryllium passed connected to consumers and that volition successful turn, thrust the emergence successful the mean selling price.
"Apple and Samsung are champion positioned to upwind the adjacent fewer quarters," MS Hwang, probe manager astatine Counterpoint, said successful the note. "But it volition beryllium pugnacious for others that don't person arsenic overmuch wiggle country to negociate marketplace stock versus nett margins."
Hwang said this volition "play retired especially" with Chinese smartphone makers who are successful the mid-to-lower extremity of the market.
Counterpoint said immoderate companies whitethorn downgrade components similar camera modules, displays and adjacent audio, arsenic good arsenic reusing aged components. Smartphone players are apt to effort to incentivize consumers to bargain their higher-priced devices too.
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